A nightmare for opponents on the defensive end, Mouhamed Gueye is one of the most intriguing bundles of potential in the NBA.
Player development was a key theme of the 2024-25 season for the Atlanta Hawks, and no player exemplified this more than Mouhamed Gueye.
Gueye, the 39th overall pick in the 2023 draft, entered the NBA with just four years of experience playing organized basketball, and after injuries robbed him of most of his rookie season*, he wasn’t expected to be a significant part of the Hawks’ rotation entering the season.
*Though Gueye was still able to put together a few mouth watering possessions in his 75 minutes of action as a rookie
With Jalen Johnson, De’Andre Hunter and David Roddy ahead of him in the pecking order for minutes at the 4, the Hawks assigned Gueye to the G League in the middle of November, where he was able to gain some more on-court experience and develop in a lower stakes environment with the College Park Skyhawks.
In 23 G League appearances between November and January, Gueye spent time at both the 4 and the 5, and averaged 11.9 points, 9.0 rebounds and 1.8 ‘stocks’* while shooting 47.1% from the floor, 39.5% from three and 64.7% at the free throw line. Gueye also committed just 2.7 personal fouls per game in a little over 28 minutes a night, a number that surely made Atlanta’s coaching staff smile seeing as he averaged an unsustainable 6.4 fouls per 36 (minutes) in his limited NBA minutes as a rookie.
*Steals + blocks
On January 27th, with Atlanta searching for answers in the frontcourt after Jalen Johnson’s season-ending shoulder injury on January 25th, Gueye received his first extended NBA minutes of the season, logging four points, four rebounds and two steals in 19 minutes off the bench in an eight-point loss to Minnesota. He went on to start the next two games, playing a combined 38 minutes in defeats to Houston and Cleveland before receiving DNP’s over the next three games as the coaching staff experimented with their rotations to try and find a winning formula.
Then, on February 7th, the day of the trade deadline, the Hawks were dealing with a short roster ahead of their game against Milwaukee after trading Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter, presenting Gueye with another opportunity for extended NBA minutes – one that he did not relinquish.
In an eye opening performance, Gueye racked up 15 points, 12 rebounds and four blocks in 23 minutes off of the bench, and was a member of Atlanta’s closing lineup in a 115-110 victory over the Bucks.
This performance marked an inflection point for Gueye’s season.
After the Bucks game, Gueye appeared in 27 out of Atlanta’s final 30 games of the regular season – starting in all but one of those contests – and though he played just 16 minutes a night, averaging 5.8 points, 4.1 rebounds and 1.8 ‘stocks’ per game*, he was one of the most impactful players on the team over this span, with Atlanta outscoring their opponents by a team-high, 8.7 points per 100 possessions in his minutes*.
*As well as just 1.7 fouls per game (3.7 per 36)!
In the Play-In Tournament, with the Hawks fighting to keep their season alive, Gueye played 26 minutes in the 7-seed/8-seed matchup against Orlando, and he was the only Hawks’ player to finish as a positive (+2) in the plus-minus column in a 25-point defeat, as his size worked well against a physical Orlando front.
In their next game, a win-or-go-home contest against the Miami Heat, he logged just three points, two rebounds and a block in 15 minutes, with Quin Snyder opting for offense over defense as three-point sniper, Georges Niang, was deployed at the 4 for the majority of the game.
At 6’11”, with phenomenal defensive instincts and incredible lateral quickness for a player his size, it’s no surprise that the majority of Gueye’s impact was felt on the defensive side of the ball. A self-described defensive ‘menace’, the Hawks held their opponents to an incredible 104.7 points per 100 possessions during his time on the court in the regular season* – more than 10 points lower than their season-long defensive rating (114.8), which ranked 18th in the league.
*Significant seeing as most of these minutes were against opposing team’s starters
An defensive disruptor of the highest order, Gueye ranked in the 93rd percentile in defensive EPM per dunksandthrees, and was one of two players* (joining Jonathan Isaac) to average over two blocks and 1.5 steals per 75 possessions during the regular season. His defensive activity was a significant factor in the Hawks’ improved defensive rating during his minutes.
*min. 450 minutes played
Per cleaningtheglass, with Gueye on the floor, the Hawks allowed opponents to shoot just 64% at the rim*, a mark which ranked in the 78th percentile (!) relative to other five-man lineups in 2024-25, and also forced turnovers on 16.4% of their opponent’s possessions, a mark which ranked in the 87th percentile (!!) relative to other five-man lineups.
*2.2% lower than when Gueye was off the floor
One more statistic that’s worth mentioning when it comes to Gueye’s defense is the impact he had on the glass. Per cleaningtheglass, though Gueye’s individual defensive rebounding percentage (17.8%) ranked in just the 54th percentile amongst all bigs this season, the Hawks as a team were able to corral an impressive 76.7% of available defensive rebounds during his minutes, a mark which ranked in the 97th percentile (!!!) relative to other five-man lineups in 2024-25.
Good defense means nothing if you don’t close out the possession with a rebound (or a turnover), so it was great to see Atlanta control the defensive glass so staunchly during Gueye’s minutes.
While it’s evident how high Gueye’s defensive ceiling is, in order for him to carve out a consistent role on a winning team and maximize his skyscraping potential, he has to improve on the offensive side of the ball.
While Gueye is a quick decision maker and rarely turns the ball over, his ball handling ability is quite limited and his outside shot is rather shaky. Given that he was deployed at the 4 more often than the 5 at the NBA level, his ability to space the floor and reliably knock down open threes in Atlanta’s pick-and-roll heavy offensive scheme is an incredibly important skill for him to continue to develop.
Gueye attempted 81 threes in his NBA minutes this season (2.5 per game), and converted them at a disappointing 25.9% clip – the 10th-worst three-point percentage out of the 306 players who took at least 81 threes last season. Rubbing salt in the wound, nearly all of these looks were classified as “open”* according to the NBA’s tracking data, making this an obvious part of his game to work on over the summer.
*Attempts without a defender within 4-feet of the shooter
On the bright side, Gueye did shoot 39.5% from three on 3.6 attempts per game in the G League, and finished his time with the Skyhawks on an absolute tear, shooting 23-for-44 (52.2%) from distance over his final 12 games in the G League this season. Gueye’s three-point shooting in College Park as well as the fact that he shot a combined 54-for-76 (71%) from the free-throw line in the G League and NBA last season are encouraging signs that he could yet develop into a reliable outside shooter.
All in all, it was a really encouraging sophomore campaign for Mouhamed Gueye. Though his defensive impact at the NBA level was undoubtedly the most impressive part of his season, Gueye shared at his end of season interview that the aspect of his game he was most proud of this season was how his on-court awareness improved over the course of the season, saying:
“Knowing my spacing, where to be on defense and offense. I know a lot of people would say defense. But I think probably the spacing and just the awareness on the court, that’s where I took my biggest step.”
He also acknowledged that he has a lot left to grow, saying “they ain’t seen nothing yet,” in response to a question about the areas of his game he didn’t get to showcase this year, that he was excited to put on display next season.
On what he hopes people take away from watching him play, Gueye said:
“Just that I’m trying to help the team win on offense and defense, and that I’m a cool guy I guess.”
Hawks’ fans should be very excited about Gueye’s long term potential. For a team that has finished in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating for eight (!) consecutive seasons, his defensive skillset is a god send.
While he’s facing a bit of an uphill battle for minutes at the 4 next season (given Jalen Johnson impending return, and that three-point sharpshooter, Georges Niang, seems to be locked in as the backup 4), he is, in my view, too talented to keep off the court, and I’m really curious to see how the Hawks decide to deploy him next season.
For now, Gueye remains one of the best kept secrets in the NBA. However if he continues to play at this level on defense, and eventually raises his NBA catch-and-shoot three-point percentage to the mid-to-upper 30’s, he won’t stay under the radar for much longer.
All stats used in this article are from basketballreference.com, cleaningtheglass.com, realgm.com, dunksandthrees.com, or nba.com/stats