When analyzing the weaknesses of the Atlanta Hawks in the 2023-2024 NBA season, there is a compelling case to grab a defender in this year’s draft. This makes the case for 18-year-old Ron Holland relatively enticing.
Holland averaged 18.5 points, 6.7 rebounds, 3 assists, 2.3 steals, and 1.1 blocks in showcase games in the G League, shooting 46.6 percent from the field, 23.4 percent from three, and just 68.2 percent from the free-throw line. He posted similar stats in the next 14 regular season games, averaging 20.6 points, 6.6 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 2.5 steals, and 0.7 blocks per game on 44.3/24.0/75.7 splits.
While 19.5 points per game across 29 games is impressive, that’s not what makes Holland a top-of-the-lottery projection. Teams have their eye on him for another reason — his defense. His defense is far more developed than you’d expect for an 18 year old. Obviously, he still has his lapses, but he can virtually lock down multiple positions on the floor. Measured at 6’6.5” with a 6’10.75” wingspan, he has the size to contend with wing scorers and the foot speed to keep up with the small, quick guards. In the clip below, you can see some impressive examples of Holland sliding his feet with guards, stopping wings in the paint, and garnering some steals playing on-ball defense.
Alongside his solid isolation defense, he excels at meeting attackers at the rim, showcasing his impressive athleticism.
overwhelming recovery tools will buoy ron holland’s defensive impact as he hones his detail and attention level
few athletes maintain top speed and explosion while changing directions/moving backwards and sideways like holland can. he’s a special athlete with all D upside pic.twitter.com/TDsdyJW04N
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) June 12, 2024
For a player averaging nearly 20 points per game in the G League, it seems funny to call his offense a question mark. Many question Holland’s ability to create both for himself and his teammates. The Ignite suffered from poor structure and organization throughout the entire season, so I take this with a grain of salt. He will not need to create at a high volume entering the league at 19 years old, but I believe he has the tools to excel in this area. While I think he is at his best in transition, his creation will be lower in volume as a rookie — attacking a moving defense and making the right read. However, especially as a guard/wing, shooting is a necessity. In 14 regular season games, Holland connected on just 24 percent of his three-point attempts, shooting 3.6 per game. This is probably the biggest knock on him as a prospect, and development in this area is what maximizes his ceiling as an NBA player.
When you watch him play a full game, there is usually a moment that makes you raise your eyebrows. For example, here he grabs the rebound, goes coast to coast, and flushes a dunk over a defender with ease.
Ron Holland can be an absolute monster in the open floor pic.twitter.com/oDXPuxGMCB
— Daniel Olinger (@dan_olinger) June 11, 2024
In terms of half-court offense, the spacing in the NBA should allow Holland to be a solid slasher and driver. He has shown the ability to drive to the paint and find the open man, as well as finish at the rim in a variety of ways. However, shooting remains a significant question mark in the half-court setting, as teams will be content to sag off a 24 percent three-point shooter. Given the offensive struggles of the Ignite, I like to give their players the benefit of the doubt, as Holland’s role and responsibilities will drastically change in the NBA. If he can become a defensive X-factor, his offense doesn’t need to be elite. But if he can develop into a consistent spot-up shooter, he has legitimate All-Star potential. If he isn’t consistent in either of those facets, that’s the floor scouts have come to worry about over the last year or so.
Can he help the Atlanta Hawks?
His archetype could certainly be beneficial. The Hawks are in desperate need of a player like him. In a perfect world, he could take on the opposing team’s best guard for stints, leaving De’Andre Hunter (should he stay) to take on a more suitable assignment. He can be a disruptor and provide energy on the defensive side of the ball, something the Hawks have lacked for a long time now.
In reality, he wouldn’t be a starter, and he would provide a similar impact to Kobe Bufkin, who really honed in on the defensive end during his short stints with the big club. This is not to compare the two players directly, as they are wildly different, but merely to illustrate the role that would get Holland minutes. The better question is, are the Hawks comfortable drafting him with the number one overall pick? It feels unlikely.
His floor may be lower than what you’d be willing to risk with the first pick in the NBA draft. If he is unable to shoot, he needs to be an All-Defense level defender to rationalize taking him first overall. But, in my personal opinion, he should be as realistic as any other option the Hawks currently have on their draft board.