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2025 NBA Draft Lottery: Breaking down key scenarios

May 13, 2025 by Peachtree Hoops

Miami Heat v Atlanta Hawks - Play-In Tournament
Photo by Adam Hagy/NBAE via Getty Images

How many draft picks will the Hawks have after today?

The Hawks have a lot of reason to keep an eye on the NBA Draft Lottery drawing happening later today.

As a result of three separate trades, Atlanta will be without their own first-round pick, but they do have a pick lower in the first round and are very likely to pick up a lottery pick after the results of the draw today.

Still, very likely is not the same as guaranteed. Last May, the Hawks landed the first overall pick with merely a 3% chance at doing just that.

The Hawks functionally can’t strike it rich and win the first overall pick, but some luck will still be required to maximize their draft capital in advance of the 2025 NBA Draft happening in late June.

The Sacramento Kings pick

Atlanta sent Kevin Huerter to Sacramento in a trade that brought back Mo Harkless, Justin Holiday, and a protected first-round pick back in 2022. Huerter was set to begin a four-year, $65 million deal heading into the 2022-23 season, but with the Hawks acquiring guard Dejounte Murray the same offseason, the financial implications of keeping both guards gave reason to find Huerter a new destination.

That protected first-rounder Sacramento sent in return was top-14 protected last season, but the Kings narrowly missed out on the playoffs and therefore deferred its conveyance. This season, the protection dropped to top 12 (importantly post-lottery). Luckily, the Kings again missed the playoffs but finished tied for the 13th worst record in the league — incidentally with the same 40-42 record as the Hawks.

After a tiebreak procedure, the Kings now have a 92.9% chance at finishing 13th and a 3.3% chance at 14th after the lottery draw — scenarios with a combined 96.2% chance at Atlanta receiving a low lottery pick.

In the slim chance that the Kings win one of the four lottery draws (a 3.8% possibility), the protection on the pick would then drop to top 10 in 2026 and would turn into two second-rounders that very season if the Kings land a top-10 pick after the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery.

Their own pick

Regardless of what happens with the lottery draw, the Hawks will convey their pick to San Antonio as a condition of the original Dejounte Murray trade. The Hawks lost the tiebreak procedure with the Kings, so they’ll either give the Spurs the 14th overall pick (96.6% odds) or a top-4 pick (3.4%) — including a 0.7% chance at the designated Cooper Flagg pick, first overall.

The Los Angeles Lakers pick

Fortunately, the Hawks picked up the Lakers’ pick unprotected first-round pick last offseason, giving them a guaranteed first-round pick. The New Orleans Pelicans owned the pick in their return for trading Anthony Davis to Los Angeles in 2019, but they turned around and sent it as part of the trade package for Dejounte Murray — a return that included 2025’s Most Improved Player, Dyson Daniels.

Unfortunately, the Lakers played their way into the playoffs and as a result sent over the 22nd overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. Today’s lottery will have no effect over that pick.

The second round

Atlanta doesn’t own their second-round pick. Instead, the Oklahoma City Thunder will make that pick (either 44th or 45th overall) for themselves. This pick was sent in compensation for signing-and-trading for Danilo Gallinari back in 2020.

But, as we saw last year, the Hawks can always get creative and pick up a late draft pick should they fall in love with an available player, for example.

The lottery results will be broadcast at 7 PM EDT on ESPN tonight, although the draw will have physically happened by that point.

Filed Under: Hawks

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