Three things the Hawks need to do to beat the Magic.
The Atlanta Hawks travel to Orlando to take on the Magic tonight in a “win and you’re in” Play-In Tournament bout between the seventh and eighth seeds in the Eastern Conference. The Hawks are no strangers to this (relatively) new postseason format, with tonight marking their fourth consecutive Play-In Tournament appearance*, while the Magic are making their Play-In debut.
*The Hawks have a 3-1 record in Play-In games
The winner of tonight’s contest secures the 7-seed in the Eastern Conference and will face the Boston Celtics in the first round of the Playoffs (tipping off on Saturday), while the loser will await the winner of tomorrow’s 9-versus-10 matchup between the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat for a “win or go home” game on Friday.
Ahead of tonight’s game, let’s outline a few keys to victory for the Atlanta Hawks.
1. Be Efficient From Inside the Arc
It’s no secret that defense is Orlando’s calling card. During the regular season, the Magic ranked 27th in offensive rating and second in defensive rating, allowing their opponents to score just 109.1 points per 100 possessions.
While the Magic like to pressure opposing ball handlers — and they force turnovers at the second-highest rate in the league — another critical component of their defensive strategy is to take away the three ball and funnel their opponents to the interior as you can glean from their defensive shot profile below.
With Orlando allowing the lowest opponent three-point attempt rate in the league, it’s obviously going to be vital for Atlanta to score efficiently from inside the arc in order to come away with a victory tonight.
Fortunately for the Hawks, their interior efficiency has been solid since the trade deadline, with the team shooting 49.6% from floater distance* and 66.5% at the rim** over their last 31 games per cleaningtheglass.
* The fourth best floater FG% in the league over this span
** The 16th best rim FG% in the league over this span
That being said, if we look at their first three matchups* against the Magic specifically (all of which occurred after the trade deadline), while they maintained their impressive efficiency from floater distance, there were still some major question marks regarding their ability to finish at the rim.
* The Hawks went 1-2 against Orlando this season, excluding the final game of the regular season where both teams rested key players.
Per pbpstats, in the three meaningful games they played against Orlando this season, the Hawks shot 45-for-85 (52.9%) from floater range and a disastrous 33-for-64 (51.6%) at the rim.
Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu and Trae Young accounted for 32 of the team’s 64 rim-attempts during their first three games against Orlando, and if they can improve their efficiency at the rim while maintaining their accuracy from floater distance, it will give Atlanta’s offense a massive boost tonight.
2. Keep Both Bigs Out of Foul Trouble
Another defining characteristic of the Orlando Magic is their size. Orlando have four players in their projected rotation (five if you include Goga Bitadze) that are 6’10” or taller in Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr. and Jonathan Isaac.
Meanwhile, the Hawks have just two players that are 6’10” or taller on their active roster in Onyeka Okongwu and Mouhamed Gueye. While I wouldn’t call it a death sentence for Atlanta if one of Okongwu or Gueye gets into early foul trouble, it would certainly make life much more difficult for them on the defensive end of the floor.
The Hawks like to deploy Okongwu as the primary defender on Banchero*, leaving Okongwu’s frontcourt partner with the responsibilities of guarding Orlando’s ‘5’ (typically Carter Jr.) and serving as the primary rim protector.
*Per nba.com/stats, only Scottie Barnes has spent more time guarding Banchero than Okongwu this season
This isn’t a problem if Okongwu is flanked by Gueye, as he has shown that he is more than capable of playing this defensive role. Where things get a little dicey, however, is when one of Okongwu or Gueye has to share the frontcourt with Georges Niang or Terance Mann. Niang doesn’t have the speed and vertical leaping ability to hang with most frontcourt players, while Mann, at 6’5”, simply lacks the size.
Given how big Orlando is across the board, and the fact that they are far more efficient from inside the arc than they are from beyond the three-point line*, defending the paint (and specifically the rim) is going to be pivotal for Atlanta’s success on the defensive end of the floor tonight. This task becomes much easier for the Hawks if they are able to deploy their “double-big” lineup worry-free, for as long as is required.
*Orlando ranked dead last in three-point percentage (31.8%) during the regular season
To be clear, Niang and Mann both offer much more on offense than Gueye does at this stage of his career, and I’m not suggesting that Gueye should play 30-plus minutes in tonight’s game. However, given their opponent, if the Hawks are struggling to protect the paint, and neither Mann or Niang can get it going on the offensive end, Gueye’s defensive skillset will be much needed.
3. Dyson Daniels, Exploit The Mismatches
Dyson Daniels has had a spectacular season so far. The defensive clinic that he’s put on this season will undoubtedly earn him consideration for both the Defensive Player of the Year and Most Improved Player awards this season. His offense, which was a significant question mark entering the season, has been better than expected, and his scoring efficiency has been trending up for most of the season.
That being said, over his three contests against Orlando this season, despite drawing some of the less intimidating matchups on the offensive end*, Daniels has averaged just 11.7 points, 3.0 assists and 1.7 turnovers per game while shooting just 15-for-35 (42.8%) from the floor, including 0-for-5 from three.
*Against Orlando, Daniels has typically been guarded by Cory Joseph or Cole Anthony
After rewatching his field goal attempts from these games, I see little reason why Daniels can’t give Atlanta some more on the offensive end in tonight’s contest.
On the play below, he takes Corey Joseph on a ride to the basket for two points.
From the same game, here is another drive on Joseph for an easy two.
Here, he executes a lovely give-and-go with Okongwu, leaving Cole Anthony in the dust as he soars for the slam.
This play ends in a miss, but notice how easily he takes Anthony to the basket in transition. Regardless of the outcome, this is a great look.
Respectfully (but not too respectfully), neither Cory Joseph nor Cole Anthony can hang with Daniels one on one, and I’d like to see the Hawks and Dyson look to take advantage of these matchups when given the opportunity tonight.
One way they could look to do this is by tapping into Okongwu as the playmaking hub some more. As seen in a few of the clips above, with Okongwu handling the ball on the perimeter, this draws Orlando’s big man out of the paint which creates easier finishes for Atlanta’s perimeter players off a cut or a drive.
For Daniels, whose offensive game is still a work in progress, this could help get him some more makeable, comfortable looks.
Hawks. Magic. For a birth in the postseason. Tip off is tonight at 7:30 PM on TNT.
Get your popcorn ready.
All statistics used in this article are from cleaningtheglass, dunksandthrees, pbpstats, nba.com/stats, or bball-index.com.