The Dream has had a full squad available for their last two games. How has new head coach Karl Smesko rotated players and used lineups with everybody available?
After nine games, the Atlanta Dream sit in third place in the WNBA with a 6-3 record. Their Tuesday night matchup against the Indiana Fever was just the second game in 2025 for Atlanta’s projected starting five players to all play at least 15 minutes. Injuries to Jordin Canada and Brittney Griner in the first fifth of the season opened playing time for rookie Te-Hina Paopao alongside veterans Maya Caldwell, Nia Coffey, Naz Hillmon, and Shatori Walker-Kimbrough.
Frontcourt depth and lineups with Jordin Canada
Atlanta entered the 2025 season with question marks at the forward and center positions. Nia Coffey and Naz Hillmon have been serviceable throughout their careers, but have not been relied upon as starters. Cheyenne Parker-Tyus and Tina Charles departed in free agency, but the surprising offseason signings of All-Stars Brionna Jones and Brittney Griner were expected to bolster Atlanta’s frontcourt.
One of the main questions after the Jones and Griner signings was whether they would primarily play together or stagger their playing time. When available, the two centers have started together, with Griner handling the opening tipoff for the Dream.
Beyond the two additions, Naz Hillmon has been the first frontcourt option off the bench in the two games since Canada’s return. During Friday’s loss to the Connecticut Sun, Hillmon entered the game for Jones when the game’s first substitutions occurred. In Tuesday’s win, Hillmon entered for Griner within two minutes of the game as ‘BG’ picked up two quick personal fouls. Hillmon played over 23 minutes in both games, with Coffey being the only other player on the team averaging double-digit minutes.
According to Across the Timeline, the most common lineup used with Canada on the court included Griner and Jones playing together up front with Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray on the wings. The next most common combination was with Hillmon replacing Griner. The only other combination used with Canada on the court in both games since Canada’s return was with Hillmon replacing Jones.
Atlanta’s backcourt relying on two All-Star guards
Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray have been the two most used players in the WNBA among the nine teams that have played nine games or fewer. Howard has taken the sixth-most shots in the WNBA and Gray has scored the fifth-most points in the league. Howard has been consistently deployed to defend opponents’ top scoring options, while also taking more three-point attempts than any other player in the WNBA. Of the eleven players with at least 49 three-point attempts, Gray has the best three-point percentage, making 42.3% of her long-range shots.
A healthy Jordin Canada at guard is expected to elevate Atlanta’s defense, but Atlanta has had two of its three lowest-scoring offensive games since Canada’s return. While Canada has always been considered more of a facilitator at the point guard position than a primary scoring threat (with a career average of 8.93 points per game), her shooting thus far has left a great deal to be desired, as she has shot just 2-for-15 from the field in her two games.
Some of her misses have been contested deep shots and while driving to the basket, but she has also missed wide-open layups in transition. The hope is that Canada will return to her career averages of shooting 38.9%. Otherwise, Atlanta may increase playing time for Maya Caldwell, free agent signing Shatori Walker-Kimbrough, and the rookie Te-Hina Paopao.
Examining Te-Hina Paopao’s role
Paopao’s usage this season has been confusing: In her first three regular season games, Paopao played at least 17 minutes in each game, taking 17 total shots including ten three-point attempts. She had positive plus/minus statistics in all three of those games despite two of them being losses for Atlanta. Since then, however, Paopao has not reached double-digit minutes in her five games played with no more than three shooting attempts in any single game.
This lack of playing time cannot be simply attributed to Jordin Canada’s return, as Canada has only been back for the last two games. In those two matchups, Paopao played in just the second and third quarters of Friday’s game against the Connecticut Sun while only missing the third quarter of Tuesday’s game.
The Atlanta crowd roared after Paopao made her first shot (and only three-point attempt) of the game in the fourth quarter against Indiana, but Atlanta already held a 17-point garbage time lead. It is unclear if Paopao is being limited due to injury or because she has not fully acclimated to the speed and challenge of the WNBA.
Looking ahead to the upcoming Commissioner’s Cup games
Atlanta looks to avoid another Friday night upset following last week’s collapse as double-digit favorites against the Connecticut Sun. What to watch for on Friday against the Chicago Sky and their upcoming matchups with the remaining Eastern Conference teams:
- How does Atlanta’s elite rebounding (a league-leading 38 rebounds per game) match up against Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso?
- Chicago has the fewest three-pointers made in the WNBA. Can Atlanta take advantage at the arc in Smesko’s system?
- Does one of Atlanta’s bench guards (Caldwell, Paopao, or Walker-Kimbrough) step up to be the clear backup to Jordin Canada?
- Will Rhyne Howard’s shooting efficiency (33.81% field goal and 26.14% from three in 2025) regress to the mean and return to her pre-2025 averages (37.32% field goal and 34.2% from three)?
How do you expect Coach Smesko to rotate the Atlanta Dream lineups and how will the bench players contribute to the offense and defense? Let us know in the comments!