My kingdom for a stopper
What if I told you that the difference between the 2024 and 2025 Atlanta Braves bullpen was a quarter of a run in FIP? Well, you’d probably tell me to place that calculator of mine somewhere that I wouldn’t like. And your sentiment would be correct, although you should probably watch your language. There’s a world of difference in that one year.
The 2025 Braves bullpen isn’t very good at finishing games with the Braves in the lead. It has as many saves (14) as blown saves. The combined earned run average is at 3.55 for an ERA- of 86, versus last year’s 2.94 and 71. The 2025 group somehow has a positive win probability added at 0.79, but that’s well down from 3.86 at this point last year. The WAR total suggests that 2025 is only a run worse than 2024, but I defy you tell me they are anything like last year.
To perform a review of the bullpen, we should probably understand who may throw in relief in the organization currently, who may begin to join, and who may leave. There are different levels of Major League Bullpen, and they refuse to be constrained to the eight allowed spots. Some are likely here for the duration of the season, some will bounce in and out, and some might make a debut.
The Regulars
Pierce Johnson, Enyel De Los Santos, Dylan Lee, Rafael Montero, Raisel Iglesias are the five that are sticking around and are likely not joining the Gwinnett Shuttle nor the DFA Express. Raisel Iglesias may be traded, but I don’t really know that the return warrants anything above 7 or so million in salary relief. Let’s look at him first.
Raisel’s slider has been victimized for five home runs this year. A good Raisel Iglesias slider actually moves into lefties and away from righties. I will spare you the video, but the bad ones don’t move, and get hammered. It’s better lately, but he’s still getting too much of the plate with it.
Pierce Johnson, aka Dr. Curveball, is dispensing more benders in the seventh and eighth innings. But he’s more Mr. Hide-Yo-Kids in the ninth inning or later. He’s given up two walkoffs on curveballs, but he’s perfectly fine before then. Pierce has posted a .213/.286/.287 line against before the ninth. It could be some bad luck, and it could be an allergy to high leverage. He wouldn’t be the only one.
Enyel De Los Santos flirted with becoming Sliderman earlier in the season. But he’s returned to a heavier fastball mix and less slider lately. He’s having pretty good results regardless, posting a 3.46/3.13/3.99 line in 2025. He was skewered for four runs in Colorado, but has been good for the last two months.
Rafael Montero has largely ditched his four pitch arsenal to focus on his splitter and four-seam. It’s working for an overall 3.97/3.32/3.82 line in 2025. The walks are high, but he’s avoiding the home run. He’s managed to secure a regular role, as well as grab six holds.
Dylan Lee has appeared in 44 games, but it still feels like he hasn’t appeared enough.
The slider has been very good to Dylan this year and last. The difference between last year and this is he’s outrunning his already good xwOBA of .218 by 32 points. He was behind by 41 points last year. But getting more ground balls can do that. The strikeouts have leveled off but so has the exit velocity. If only we could get him some more high leverage.
The MIRPs
Aaron Bummer was the best pitcher by WAR until recently when he was added to the list of multiple inning relief pitchers. He may not be starting games in the second half, but he will likely be asked to grab 2-3 innings once a week at this time. His 3.89/3.39/3.26 line over 39.1 innings suggests a decent reliever who has undergone some poor BABIP luck and been left in games too long like every other Braves starter/opener.
Joey Wentz was a former first round draft pick of the Braves from 2016. His career never really took off after being traded. But you would never know it from carving up the Cardinals on Saturday. Wentz is not a guy that you can expect to throw a lot of strikes, as his walk rate has increased every season. No matter, he will likely get opportunities for multiple innings after striking out 6 Cardinals and getting 10 whiffs.
Dane Dunning is an interesting pickup for the Braves on Thursday night. He has a lifetime WAR of 5.3 with some good years for Texas in 2021 and 2023. He uses five pitches but mostly works off the cutter. He can run the sinker up to 92 MPH in 2025 but mostly lives around 90 with it. I got to see some of his breaking pitches in the minor leagues and they were outstanding. He generates whiffs in the slider at a 36.4% rate but throws it less than 10 percent of the time. If you squint really hard and the Braves can help him, there’s a good cutter and slider mix that could work as an effective reliever.
Davis Daniel picked up 0.4 WAR over 30.1 innings with the Angels last season. He’s been used sparingly by the Braves, but he’s started more games than relieved them. So he’s an option to grab some innings and has one option left. He’s spent most of his time in Gwinnett, and with a 4.77 FIP over 76.2 innings seems likely to remain there. Outside of a cameo here and there, we won’t pitch much even for this staff.
Nathan Wiles is a starter who spent most of his time toiling away in the Rays organization. He’s not a guy that will miss a ton of bats or create strikeouts. He does seem to have some control, which is welcomed in a guy who might be asked to soak up some innings. We may place him in the same group as Davis Daniel for maybe slightly different reasons.
The Extended Family
Daysbel Hernandez has the raw stuff to be a closer in the Braves bullpen. He also has the ability to walk the bases loaded and let games get away from him. He’s proven out both of these, but was sent away to Gwinnett most recently after a three-walk, two-strikeout, game-tying-run-allowing descent into madness on Saturday.
Dylan Dodd was a starter/multiple inning guy until this year. He’s decided to start throwing an improved cutter 65% percent of the time and give up the changeup as well. He had a 0.00/2.45/3.86 line in his first 8 appearances before MLB caught on. If any of the active roster needs a break, he’s probably second in line right now.
Wander Suero throws a cutter 75-plus percent of the time with a changeup most of his career. He was doing quite well with it until he started having trouble keeping hitters in the park. Jesse Chavez will likely be back at some point. Austin Cox also exists.
The Injured
Joe Jimenez went down with a knee injury last year. He did throw a bullpen earlier this month. The hope is that he can return next month, but he hasn’t looked likely to start his rehab soon.
The Outsiders
There’s also Hunter Stratton, Rolddy Muñoz, Hayden Harris, Jhancarlos Lara, Domingo Gonzalez that may or may not fight through the rest of the depth in 2025. Hayden Harris is an interesting one. With a 0.93/5.07/4.60 line in Triple-A, he offers a 92 MPH fastball that is getting a ton of swing-and-misses somehow. He doesn’t really seem to have a good secondary option.
The Verdict
It’s not great, Bob. There’s some decent MIRP options that will help cover up the lack of starting pitching. Unless Raisel rediscovers his slider, there really isn’t a shutdown arm in the bullpen. Daysbel Hernandez could be the guy as well, but he needs to find his slider as well. Joe Jimenez could be that guy, but he needs to get healthy first. Seems like the Braves need as much Dylan Lee is high leverage as they can get.