It’s a big-name pitching matchup in an early start for the series finale
There was a point where a Spencer Strider-Justin Verlander matchup would’ve been must-see baseball, even in a relatively early (12:15 pm ET) matinee start. That is absolutely not the case at this point, but the Braves can still play spoiler and dent the Giants’ playoff hopes even further by randomly taking a series off them with a win this afternoon.
The Braves’… shall we say… issues… have been documented enough at this point. That said, the Giants are currently six games back in the NL West, 2.5 games back of the last Wild Card spot, and have about 1-in-3 playoff odds. That’s right around where they started the season, but they were much closer to 2-in-3 for much of June, and were still there with a coin flip’s chance as recently as three weeks ago. The six-game losing streak that they snapped with a 9-0 win over the Braves last night has really dented their postseason aspirations, and the Braves can do way more damage to them with another victory.
That said, it’s not like the Giants were particularly deserving of a shooed-in playoff spot anyway. They currently rank 22nd in position player fWAR and 13th in pitching fWAR. While their pitching peripherals are great (5th in xFIP-, fourth in xwOBA-against for those that care), they are a bottom-five team offensively by xwOBA. They have the same BaseRuns record as the Braves, with both teams at .500 by that measure. So, if the Braves do player spoiler today, it’ll be more akin to “the Giants aren’t exemplary anyway.”
Starting for the Giants this afternoon will be the near-ageless Justin Verlander, now 42 years old, and in the midst of what you’d probably expect from a starter at his age with a legendary resume: fourth starter-esque performance. Verlander was still well above average at age 40, really struggled last year, and then signed a $15 million one-year pact with the Giants. So far, he has a 124/109/115 (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-) line. He’s had a weird July so far: he got BABIPed to death by the Athletics, then absolutely dominated the Phillies, and then looked horrid against the Blue Jays, failing to strike out a batter in an outing for just the second time since the 2017 season.
Though Verlander has been around forever, he and the Braves have rarely crossed paths. Since 2016, the only time he’s faced Atlanta was that 2023 “Pour Larry a crown!” game in which both he and Strider got knocked around but the Braves managed an epic comeback and walkoff win. If my count is correct, this will be just his fifth time ever pitching against the Braves in a storied career — he’s largely dominated them (and everyone) each time, aside from that 2023 game.
For the Braves, Strider’s recovery season is going pretty well, but he’s not back to his pre-injury self. His aggregate line is 87/90/86, but you can really split that into two “cuts” of performance: 130/140/122 in his first five starts back, and 61/62/65 since. That latter is very close to his 79/59/63 that he compiled over 2022-2023, but he’s doing it in a way that’s been more purposeful and based around out-guessing hitters rather than forcing fastballs past them. Strider faced the Giants in San Francisco earlier this year in what was the last start of his “rough recovery” stretch, putting up just a 5/3 K/BB ratio across six frames — that outing was doomed by back-to-back walks to start the fourth and then a costly error behind him that capped the scoring in a one-run loss. Prior to that start, Strider had absolutely destroyed the Giants in three outings, including back-to-back starts against them in 2023 where the Braves won 4-0 and 5-1 while Strider put up a combined 19/2 K/BB ratio.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Wednesday, July 23, 12:15 p.m. EDT
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
TV: FanDuel Sports Network South / Southeast, MLB Network (out-of-market only)
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM