Alex is pretty much who we thought we was, with the good and the bad
Bringing up Alex Verdugo in mid-April gave the Atlanta Braves a shot in the arm. When he arrived, the outfield that was already missing Ronald Acuña was being rocked by the Jurickson Profar suspension and some pretty poor play from bench players forced into the lineup. He helped the Braves grab a win at home and looked to be handling the fastball better in Atlanta. He’s been providing roughly the same inputs and outputs this year that he had for the Yankees last year. There are a few worrying trends, however, but the Braves got a somewhat competent stand-in for Profar.
Right around the 100 plate-appearance mark is a good time to look at how a player is doing and what we can expect going forward. There are a few new Braves hitting that mark soon, so it’s a good time to check on their progress. Verdugo is at 95 PA as of May 12th, and by time you read this he’ll have at least 99.
Let’s look at what is roughly unchanged for Alex from last year. His OPS is definitely one of those. As of May 12th, it’s at .646 versus last year’s mark of .647. Overall xwOBA (expected weighted on-base average aka a really good metric for how well a hitter strikes the ball) is slightly up to .322 from .302. Exit velocity is up, but only slightly. Launch angle is up slightly as well. Barrels are down, but not ridiculously so. Yep, as seen in a Yankee uniform, so we also get in Braves Alex Verdugo.
For some reason, the defensive stats highlighted by the outs above average numbers hate Verdugo. They have him at -3 for the season. I haven’t seen every play but I think he’s doing a decent enough job out there. So his defensive numbers are down, but they can be pretty flighty for anything short of a half-season, especially for outfielders. For example, Eli White’s numbers are negative on Fangraphs, and that’s just silly.
So it’s been pretty much business as usual for Alex. The swing rate is low, but it’s not anything to do with the Braves new approach. His bat speed averaged 68.3 last year and it’s 67.3 this year. But he’s in there, getting a decent number of base hits and helping out defensively. I’m not sure I would want a .646 OPS hitter sitting in the lead off spot or anything, but Snitker will definitely Snitker. He’s been an okay patch for the outfield situation. However, there are a couple of trends that have gone south for Alex in a demonstrative fashion.
We were already aware that he was having trouble getting around on the fastball. Keep in mind here that the league is posting a .261/.346/.422 line with a .358 xwOBA. Those numbers took a drop in 2024 and continued that drop this year. When Alex arrived, he was initially getting good numbers on the fastball. 100ish plate appearances proved it to be a mirage. It gets worse.
Anything 94 MPH and over is giving Verdugo fits this year. xwOBA is down 50 plus points and the results are down even more. The hits, save one are of the slappy swing variety with a ton of pulled ground balls. But with everything slower than 94 MPH, the line is .274/.328/.403 with a .333 xwOBA. And that’s perfectly fine and also in line with his most recent season. Then there’s the handedness splits.
The numbers versus lefties have fallen off a cliff this season. xwOBA is 66 points lower and the results are worse. He’s seeing fewer lefties at this point in the season, but it does appear to be a blind spot. That single hit walked off the Nationals and was definitely welcome. But yes it was the only one so far this year. The numbers versus righties are remarkably similar to previous years. Actually, xwOBA and the results, a .293/.346/.400 line and a .336 xwOBA, are very solid.
His strikeout rate is the lowest of his career at 11.1%. If you’re thinking that the Braves new approach is helping him avoid strikeouts, but it’s really not. Pitchers are filling up the zone, mainly with fastballs, to a career-high 59.4% zone rate aka how many strikes pitchers are throwing him. His swing rate is down to a season-low, and that might be the Braves approach or he’s just waiting to find something he can hit.
So there’s one way to interpret the bad trends. One way is that because practically everything else is line that eventually he will start hitting lefties and fastballs. The better approach may be just to play him versus righties and allow him to flourish as a platoon player once Ronald Acuña is back. At the rate Ronald is working on his rehab start, that could be Friday, though. He’s been a great help in the outfield, but it may be about time for him to shine as a backup.