An Introduction to Bryce Elder, the Newest Atlanta Brave

Top pitching prospect Bryce Elder has been promoted to make a start for the Braves. Here is what you can expect out of him early.

With Max Fried not ready to go for the Braves and Tucker Davidson being used last night, Atlanta was in need of a pitcher to turn to for Tuesday’s game. They chose to select Bryce Elder to make that start, culminating a meteoric rise through the system for the 22-year old right handed pitcher. Elder was a star for the University of Texas in college and when the Braves had the opportunity to pick him up in the fifth round of the shortened 2020 draft they were excited to jump on it and pay him an overslept bonus to forgo his final college season.

Elder was expected to move through the Braves system fairly quickly, but his assignment to Rome to start the 2021 season tempered most hopes that he would be ready this soon. Elder got off to.a solid start in his first five games but occasionally ran into control problems that would impact his final line. Still, he was just beginning to earn the reputation as the most reliable innings-eater in all of minor league baseball and finished his final four games at Rome with a 1.40 ERA and 24 strikeouts to six walks allowed in 19 ¹⁄₃ innings. This earned him a call to Mississippi in late June and he quickly separated himself as the ace of that staff after a couple of mediocre outings to start. Then on July 10th Elder went seven hitless innings as part of Mississippi’s combined no hitter and never looked back. From July 10th to August 14th he pitched seven consecutive outings of six or more innings with five of those reaching seven full innings. His 2.87 ERA led the team in that time and he had 50 strikeouts and 14 walks allowed in 47 innings over hose final seven starts. This earned another call up to Gwinnett where he once again took over as the most effective pitcher on the staff and solidified himself as a clear top 10 prospect in the system.

His efficiency in Gwinnett was impacted a bit as he adjusted to a smaller strike zone at the level, and in his first three outings he had a solid-but-not-exciting 4.02 ERA with 18 strikeouts to seven walks in 15 ²⁄₃ innings. He then set off a torrid run to end the season and over his final four outings had a 0.86 ERA primarily centered around his ability to force weak ground balls. He still struggled some with controlling the edges of the zone and adjusting to the smaller zone and walked 13 batters in 21 innings, but his command was better than those numbers indicate. Overall he led the minor leagues in innings pitched in 2021 and across three levels he had a 2.75 ERA in 137 ²⁄₃ innings with 155 strikeouts and 57 walks allowed. Elder impressed the Braves in spring training in 2022 by throwing 7 ²⁄₃ hitless and scoreless innings across two outings, though his peripherals were lackluster in the small sample as he had four strikeouts and four walks.

Elder features a four pitch mix centered primarily around forcing weak contact, though he has forced more strikeouts as a professional than was originally anticipated. His primarily offering is a low-90’s sinker that has touched 95 mph, and works down in the zone early in at bats to try to force players to roll over the ball for easy infield ground balls. The pitch doesn’t miss upper level bats very often, but when he finds the edges he can quickly get ahead of batters and get into the off speed stuff in his arsenal. The biggest improvement for Elder came on his slider, which has wipeout vertical movement and was his primary strikeout option in 2021. He can bury the ball away to right handed hitters and on the back foot of left handed batters, and it projects as a plus offering that will play in any role. He also features an above average changeup that he will throw to right handed and left handed batters which features a superb depth to separate it from his sinker. The changeup was a major step forward and produced ugly swings from both sides of the plate when located properly, along with having enough depth to produce ground balls with regularity when thrown in the zone. He ties his arsenal together with a solid average curveball that has also made major strides since college and protects now as an average offering. He also features a four seam fastball that gives a different look off of his sinker and allows him to work up in the zone a bit more often. His sinker likely limits his ceiling to a middle-of-the-rotation role, but his above average command and strong off speed mix give him the highest floor among Braves prospects. How many bats he misses at the upper level will determine his final role, but there is high confidence he will fit into a major league rotation in some capacity and his efficiency could make him an ideal innings eater in the middle of a rotation.

With a shortened spring training and a taxed bullpen Atlanta needs a player that can fill up innings, and right now Bryce Elder is likely their top option. Touki Toussaint and Kyle Muller (who was not available regardless) lack the efficiency and consistency to give five or more innings on a consistent bases, and Elder’s higher floor and tendency to get early count weak contact makes him an ideal candidate to come up now. His stay in Atlanta may not be long, but a strong outing should give him a chance to stick in the rotation even now as the door seems to still be wide open for someone to take a back end role. A major remaining question for Elder is how ready his is for the season, because although he was not locked out of spring training he did struggle some with command this spring and was also slow out of the gates last season. If his command isn’t on point he could run into walk troubles, and although he is not prone to big innings he could reduce his efficiency too much to be able to give the Braves that five or six innings they may look for. Elder is a guy that was always going to get to Atlanta this season, and will likely be given an opportunity to stick especially as we drift later into the season. He isn’t the most exciting arm in the system, but he is the most reliable and a player that seems fit to fill in a fourth starter role at the big league level and excel in that spot.