The Braves will have played 13 straight games in the division once they’re done with the Phillies this weekend. This is their last chance to make sure that it was a truly productive stretch.
The 13-game divisional gauntlet that the Atlanta Braves have been experiencing comes to a close during this upcoming weekend as the Braves will be renewing baseball hostilities with the Phillies to end off this run through the NL East.
The last time the Braves saw the Phillies was around this time of the month last May. That was when the Braves defeated Philadelphia 9-4 in order to avoid getting swept. Now, the Braves simply can’t be happy with avoiding a sweep — they’ve got to be the one sweeping teams or at least winning series if they’re going to figure out a way to salvage this season going forward. Atlanta’s gone 11-14 since that series in Philadelphia, so they haven’t exactly been moving in the right direction.
Here’s the funny thing: The Phillies have also gone 11-14 since that series. Philadelphia went into a huge slump immediately after splitting that doubleheader to end the series and it was to the point where the Phillies are only just now really recovering from that blip in form. As you can imagine based on both teams being 11-14 over their past 25, it’s safe to assume that they haven’t exactly been setting the world on fire at the plate. Since May 30, the Phillies have hit .242/.306/.379 with a .302 wOBA and 91 wRC+ as a team. Folks, only seven teams in baseball have a lower wRC+ than the Phillies do during that span — and unfortunately, the Braves are one of them, as Atlanta has hit .231/.311/.356 with a .296 wOBA and 87 wRC+ over their past 25 games. Woof.
As you can imagine, the usual suspects are the ones helping to keep Philly afloat during this stretch. Brandon Marsh had led the team in wRC+ over the past 25 games with 139 wRC+. Trea Turner is right behind him (and Turner has led the team in fWAR for not just this span but the entire season as well) with Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm and Kyle Schwarber ready to hit bombs as well. J.T. Realmuto hasn’t been running so hot lately but I don’t think it would shock any of us if he just suddenly found his stride at the plate just in time to annoy the Braves.
Philadelphia’s pitching staff during that span has been okay as well. In terms of ERA- and FIP- as a staff, the Phillies have been middle-of-the-road over the past 25 games. The Braves have actually pitched pretty well during that stretch as well and Atlanta’s lineup will be happy to get to avoid Zack Wheeler (even though Atlanta’s had some success against Wheeler this season). Still, Philadelphia’s pitching staff is never easy to deal with and I’d imagine that we’re probably going to be in for another intense weekend between these two clubs.
Friday, June 27, 7:15 p.m. ET (FanDuel Sports South/Southeast, Gray TV)
RHP Bryce Elder (12 GS, 66 IP, 19.6 K%, 7.1 BB%, 4.77 ERA, 116 ERA-, 4.62 FIP, 117 FIP-, 0.2 fWAR)
Just when we were starting to have even a faint glimmer of hope that Bryce Elder was figuring out a way to reclaim the “magic” that he had in 2023, two underwhelming starts against two of the worst teams in baseball have kind of brought those glimmers to an immediate dim. Getting chased from the game by the Rockies (who were away from Coors) and giving up five runs to the Marlins is pretty rough, and now Elder will have to figure out a way to get things back on track against a Phillies lineup that could go off at any given moment.
Elder himself has a pretty checkered history against the Phillies, which makes sense because Elder’s career results themselves are all over the place. Back in 2023, Elder pitched seven shutout innings at Citizens Bank Park but then he got shelled for four runs over 3.2 innings later on in Truist Park. He’s truly an enigma.
RHP Mick Abel (5 GS, 23.1 IP, 18.8 K%, 4.2 BB%, 3.47 ERA, 85 ERA-, 6.07 FIP, 147 FIP-, -0.2 fWAR)
Rookie Mick Abel burst onto the scene with a couple of really strong starts to kick off his career — one in a spot start on May 18 against the Pirates and then a solid start on June 4 against the Blue Jays that has sparked his current stint in the rotation. It’s been a rollercoaster ride for Abel since then, as he gave up three runs in four innings against the Cubs on June 10, went five innings and only gave up one run against the Marlins and then went only three innings while giving up four runs against the Marlins. If Abel is in the midst of a pattern then the Braves might be getting unlucky running into him on Friday. We’ll see if the Braves will be able to figure out his four-seamer/curveball/slider/sinker arsenal.
Saturday, June 28, 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX)
RHP Spencer Schwellenbach (16 GS, 103.2 IP, 23.5 K%, 4.2 BB%, 3.21 ERA, 78 ERA-, 3.40 FIP, 87 FIP-, 1.8 fWAR)
Schwellenbach will probably be happy to see someone other than the Mets, as his past fourteen innings have come against the Mets with varying amounts of success. The good news is that Schwellenbach’s most recent outing against the Mets was the better one, as he went seven innings while only giving up two runs while striking out four batters as well. Schwellenbach also has a strong start against the Phillies under his belt this season, as he went six innings and only gave up one run against Philadephia all the way back on April 10.
LHP Jesús Luzardo (16 GS, 90.1 IP, 27.0 K%, 7.5 BB%, 4.08 ERA, 100 ERA-, 2.77 FIP, 68 FIP-, 2.6 fWAR)
The former Marlins hurler has also been experiencing a bit of a rollercoaster ride so far this season and to be honest, it’s impressive that his numbers are still this nice when you consider that he’s got a 3.1 IP, 12 ER performance under his belt here in 2025. Lately, that’s been the case for Luzardo: He’s either been absolutely brilliant and a tough nut to crack or he’s been incredibly vulnerable and serving up meatballs for opposing hitters. Maybe the Braves will be able to get in on the fun, instead of Luzardo picking up wher ehe left off against them when he neutralized them back in April.
Sunday, June 29, 1:35 p.m. ET (FanDuel Sports South/Southeast)
RHP Spencer Strider (8 GS, 42 IP, 30.5 K%, 9.8 BB%, 4.07 ERA, 99 ERA-, 3.60 FIP, 91 FIP-, 0.7 fWAR)
It’s been very interesting watching Spencer Strider try to work things out on the mound now that his return is in full swing. He only gave up two hits and struck out eight batters in his most recent start against the Mets but that coincided with four walks and three runs allowed, so it wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows for the mustachioed hurler. He has yet to fully put it together against a team not-nicknamed the Rockies but the closest he got was 4.2 innings where he only gave up one run against these same Phillies back on May 27. Maybe we’ll see Strider build on that effort?
LHP Ranger Suárez (10 GS, 65 IP, 23.0 K%, 6.3 BB%, 2.08 ERA, 51 ERA-, 2.84 FIP, 70 FIP-, 1.9 fWAR)
The Braves may not be getting Zack Wheeler in this series but that doesn’t mean that they’ll be getting a complete reprieve either. Ranger Suárez has been very effective so far this season for the Phillies and he’s coming into town on a bit of a roll. He’s given up two runs or fewer in his past seven starts and he’s given up three runs or fewer in nine of the 10 starts that he’s made this season. He’s been consistently effective for Philadelphia so far and he’s coming off of what was arguably his best start of the season where he came one out away from completing eight innings while only giving up one run. This run of great form includes a start where he pitched six shutout innings against the Braves on May 27, so there’s that. This could be a long afternoon at the plate for Atlanta.