The Braves enter Spring Training with a luxury tax payroll around $230MM, according to the RosterResource calculations. That puts them about $11MM shy of the base threshold. Atlanta has paid the tax in two straight seasons, pushing their spending to $276MM by the end of last year.
That seemingly indicates that the Braves have room to add to their payroll. Chairman Terry McGuirk confirmed as much to Evan Drellich of The Athletic. “We have crossed the competitive balance tax each of the last two years. It’s possible we could do it again this year,” McGuirk told Drellich. He added that the team “(has) some dry powder” to add spending and implied that Atlanta could make a move in free agency this spring. McGuirk noted that the Braves waited until the middle of March before bringing back Adam Duvall on a $3MM deal last year.
Atlanta has had a quiet offseason. Their only free agent move of significance was the signing of Jurickson Profar on a three-year, $42MM contract. Their remaining free agent pickups were split deals. Their biggest trade was to offload the final two years on Jorge Soler’s contract to the Angels for no return. They acquired Griffin Canning, then non-tendered him. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said at the Winter Meetings that the Braves were willing to exceed the tax threshold. Perhaps that’d have happened if a failed physical hadn’t scuttled their reported five-year agreement with Jeff Hoffman, though it’s possible they wouldn’t have subsequently signed Profar if the Hoffman deal had been finalized.
The Braves seem unlikely to add $11MM+ to their tax ledger before Opening Day. There are only a few free agents who are sure to sign major league deals. A one-year deal for David Robertson, Jose Quintana or Kyle Gibson could still approach eight-figures, but most remaining free agents are unsigned because their markets haven’t materialized the way they’d hoped.
Anthopoulos has indicated that any rotation pickups would need to be marked improvements on Ian Anderson and/or Grant Holmes, who are out of minor league options and are vying for back-end jobs. Robertson would be an upgrade for any team’s bullpen. Atlanta has a few questionable spots in the middle innings. Their relief group is anchored by a strong four of Raisel Iglesias, Aaron Bummer, Pierce Johnson and Dylan Lee, however.
A team’s luxury tax number isn’t calculated until the end of the season. The Braves hope to add to the roster midseason. If they added a few million dollars to their CBT payroll with a Spring Training free agent pickup, a midseason trade or two could push them past $241MM. Their current $230MM calculation is an unofficial estimate, so it’s possible that number is off a couple million dollars in either direction.
Clubs are generally hesitant about narrowly exceeding the luxury tax threshold. Teams pay escalating penalties for going beyond the marker in consecutive seasons. Staying underneath $241MM would allow the Braves to reset their status rather than pushing them to third-time payors, which comes with the top tax rates. The tax is only on the overages, so they’d have a minimal tax bill if they only exceed the threshold by a few million dollars, but the repeat penalties could limit their financial flexibility in future offseasons. They’ll need to weigh that against the benefits of short-term upgrades as they vie with the Phillies and Mets atop the NL East in 2025.