Fresh off a 5-1 road trip, the Braves will play three against the reigning postseason champs
After a 5-1 road trip, the Atlanta Braves will return to Truist Park to begin a nine-game homestand, which starts with a three-game series against the defending World Series champion Texas Rangers. The Braves (barely!) took two of three from the Marlins in Miami and then swept the Astros to improve to 12-5 on the season. They entered Thursday’s off day with a two-game advantage over the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East standings.
While Atlanta has played well through the first 17 games of the season, the injury bug continues to bite. Ozzie Albies was placed on the Injured List earlier this week with a broken toe that he suffered when he was hit by a pitch in Monday’s game in Houston. Albies won’t need surgery and the Braves are hoping that he can return in a couple of weeks. He joins Sean Murphy and Spencer Strider as the other Atlanta players to hit the shelf over the first three weeks of the season. Murphy is working his way back from an oblique strain while Strider will miss the remainder of the season after undergoing an internal brace procedure on his right elbow.
The Braves are currently 13th in the majors in home runs but are second in runs scored with 108, which trails only the San Diego Padres who have 109. Marcell Ozuna has been a catalyst early for Atlanta hitting .352/.403/.732 with eight home runs and a 205 wRC+. Ozuna has hit safely in 16 straight games, which is the longest active streak in the majors. Though it feels like the Braves have had to claw their way to win after win, they nonetheless come into the series with the majors’ best record, best BaseRuns record, and second-most team fWAR, despite playing fewer games than most other teams.
The Rangers come into the series leading the AL West with a 11-9 record; they are the only team in the division above .500 at the time of writing. They have battled some inconsistency and injury during the beginning of the season, getting off to a 6-2 start before losing six of eight, including a home series loss to the Athletics of all teams. They are eighth in position player fWAR and wRC+, sixth in runs, but just 17th in pitching fWAR. Perhaps slightly more worrying, they have the sixth-worst xFIP- in MLB as a staff.
Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia are off to incredible starts, and there are a number of potent bats in this lineup, three more of which have a well above-average xwOBA. While Josh Jung is on 60-day Injured List with a wrist injury, Josh Smith has filled in more than admirably at the hot corner. The pitching side has been hit or miss — Cody Bradford (whom the Braves won’t see in this series) has had three excellent starts and former Brave Kirby Yates leads their bullpen, but Dane Dunning and a number of Texas relievers have nasty numbers (not in a good way).
Friday, April 19, 7:20 p.m. ET (Apple TV+)
Andrew Heaney (3 GS, 12.0 IP, 16.9 K%, 11.9 BB%, 6.75 ERA, 5.12 FIP)
Left-hander Andrew Heaney will get the start for the Rangers in Friday’s series opener for the Rangers. Heaney allowed four hits and two runs in his last start against the Astros but walked four and failed to make it out of the fourth inning while running up his pitch count. Heaney has pitched into the fifth inning just once in his three starts this season. After a sparkling 7/0 K/BB ratio in his season debut, he has walked more than he’s struck out in his two more recent starts. At this point, Heaney has an almost “I can’t believe he’s not a reliever” profile with a very fashionable high fastball, low slider mix, which can make him vulnerable to batters after they get a look at his stuff.
Heaney faced the Braves once in his career back in 2021, where he allowed two runs in four innings.
Chris Sale (2023: 3 GS, 17.2 IP, 28.2 K%, 7.0 BB%, 4.58 ERA, 3.47 FIP)
Chris Sale will make his fourth start of the season for the Braves in Friday’s series opener. Sale is coming off a start where he allowed five runs against the Marlins, but also logged seven innings while throwing 100 pitches for the first time in 2024. Sale tied his season high in that start with seven strikeouts. He comes into the game with a sub-3.00 xFIP but has been victimized a bit by a low strand rate and high HR/FB and will hope for some better fortune here.
Sale has 16 career appearances against the Rangers in his career and has a 2.43 ERA, 2.88 FIP, and 2.48 xFIP, along with 105 strikeouts in 85 1/3 innings, but hasn’t faced them since 2021.
Saturday, April 20, 7:20 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South, MLB Network)
Nathan Eovaldi (4 GS, 24.2 IP, 23.2 K%, 6.3 BB%, 2.92 ERA, 3.85 FIP)
Hard-throwing righty Nathan Eovaldi will take his turn in the second game of the series Saturday. Eovaldi has pitched to good results so far this season but is coming off a rough start in his last outing against the Astros where he was tagged for five runs in six innings. That was the first time this season that Eovaldi had allowed more than two runs in a start. Eovaldi has pitched well against the Braves in his career, posting a 2.89 ERA, 3.20 FIP, and 3.82 xFIP in 99 2/3 innings across 16 starts. One of those games came last May against Spencer Strider, and ended in a 6-5 Braves win, as the Braves rallied for three runs against the Texas bullpen.
Charlie Morton (2023: 3 GS, 17.0 IP, 25.4 K%, 11.3 BB%, 5.29 ERA, 4.25 FIP)
Charlie Morton will make his fourth start of the season for the Braves in Saturday’s game and will be looking to bounce back after a rough stretch. Morton tossed 5 2/3 scoreless innings in his first start against the White Sox. In two starts since, Morton has allowed 10 earned runs in his last 11 1/3 innings. Even more frustrating, the Braves have given him big early leads that he has been unable to hold. Morton did record a season-high eight strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings in his last outing against the Marlins.
Morton has excelled in seven career starts against the Rangers, with an ERA, FIP, and xFIP all under 3.00, including a dominant ten-strikeout performance against them last May. The Rangers are pretty balanced offensively from a handedness perspective, but you still don’t want to see Morton facing someone like Corey Seager in a key situation the third time through.
Sunday, April 21, 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Michael Lorenzen (1 GS, 5.0 IP, 20.0 K%, 25.0 BB%, 0.00 ERA, 4.60 FIP)
The Rangers added Michael Lorenzen late in the offseason in hope that he will give them another reliable arm while they wait on some of their injured pitchers to return. Lorenzen made his season debut on April 15 in Detroit where he tossed five scoreless innings, but also allowed three hits and five walks. Lorenzen hasn’t had much luck against the Braves in his career, allowing 17 runs in just 20 1/3 innings, with comparably bad ERA estimators.
Darius Vines (2023: 1 GS, 4.2 IP, 21.1 K%, 15.8 BB%, 1.93 ERA, 3.46 FIP)
After pitching well Monday in Houston, Darius Vines will stick in the Braves rotation and get the start in Sunday’s series finale. Vines issued three walks, but otherwise held the Astros in check allowing four hits and one run over 4 2/3 innings. Perhaps most impressively, he started the game with a 1/3 K/BB ratio, but battled back to strike out three more Astros even as they got multiple looks against him. Sunday’s game will be Vines’ second career start at Truist Park.