The Braves will try to improve on their MLB-best record as they face the tough staff in Seattle
The Atlanta Braves are heading out on their first West Coast trip, which will start with a three-game series against the Seattle Mariners.The Braves enter the series with an MLB-best 19-7 record and have won five straight series after suffering their first and only series loss of the season so far to the Mets. Atlanta just completed a 7-2 homestand with a walk-off win over the Cleveland Guardians on Sunday.
The upcoming series will mark the return of Jarred Kelenic to Seattle. Atlanta acquired Kelenic in an offseason trade along with pitcher Marco Gonzales and Evan White in a deal that was largely a cash dump for the Mariners. Kelenic replaced Eddie Rosario in left field and is currently platooning with Adam Duvall. Through his first 21 games, he’s hitting .305/.369/.373 with no homers and a 112 wRC+. However, he came into Sunday’s game substantially outhitting a weak .299 xwOBA, as he’s struggled to make enough hard contact to compensate for a massive spike in his chase rate.
Ozzie Albies made his return to the Braves’ lineup during the homestand after missing eight games with a fractured toe. Catcher Sean Murphy is still on the Injured List and working his way back from an oblique strain.
The Mariners come into the series playing well having won nine of their last 12 games to take over the lead in the AL West. After failing to win their first five series of the year, they’ve won their last four.
Seattle’s pitching staff will likely enter the series sixth in park-adjusted ERA and fifth in park-adjusted FIP; only the Phillies have a better xFIP when adjusting for park. The superior pitching has really supported an unimpressive offensive performance so far, as the offense is 25th in MLB in runs scored, 21st in wRC+, and 23rd in xwOBA (though that xwOBA isn’t park-adjusted and they play in arguably the worst offensive environment in MLB).
Dominic Canzone, Josh Rojas, and Ty France are the only Mariners with well above average xwOBAs coming into this series, though France is mired in massive underperformance land. Cal Raleigh leads the position players in fWAR, but a chunk of that is xwOBA overperformance. On the pitching end, the trio of Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Luis Castillo have been nails, though there are a lot of guys in the soft underbelly of the relief corps that have started out with unexpectedly poor Aprils.
Monday, April 29, 9:40 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Max Fried (2024: 5 GS, 25.1 IP, 16.5 K%, 8.3 BB%, 4.97 ERA, 3.95 FIP)
Max Fried will get the start in Monday’s opener and will look to build off a complete game shutout against the Marlins in his last outing. Fried allowed 10 earned runs over his first five innings of the season. Over his next three starts, he’s allowed four runs combined over 20 1/3 innings. Fried’s only career appearance against the Mariners was in 2022, where he allowed two runs and struck out six over six innings.
Bryce Miller (2024: 5 GS, 28.1 IP, 26.1 K%, 9.9 BB%, 2.22 ERA, 4.57 FIP)
Right-hander Bryce Miller will get the start for the Mariners in Monday’s opener. Miller has made five starts and is coming off his shortest and worst start of the season, where he allowed four hits, four walks, but just two runs over four innings against the Rangers. Despite the short outing, Miller has pitched well and done a good job of limiting damage having allowed just three runs combined over his last 23 1/3 innings. Miller faced the Braves once last season where he allowed three runs over 6 1/3 innings.
Keep an eye on Miller’s new splitter, which has been helping him destroy hitters thanks to how well it pairs with his four-seamer.
Tuesday, April 30, 9:40 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Reynaldo López (2024: 4 GS, 25.0 IP, 26.1 K%, 8.7 BB%, 0.72 ERA, 2.72 FIP)
Reynaldo López will make his fifth start of the season for the Braves in the second game of the series on Tuesday. This will be the first time all season that Lopez has pitched on regular rest. His conversion back to the starting rotation has gone well over the first month. He logged a season-high seven innings in his last start while allowing three hits and one run against the Marlins. Lopez has gone at least six innings in all four of his starts.
Luis Castillo (2024: 6 GS, 34.2 IP, 28.8 K%, 4.8 BB%, 4.15 ERA, 3.22 FIP)
Right-hander Luis Castillo will make his seventh start of the season for the Mariners on Tuesday. Castillo got off to a bit of an undeservedly rough start, allowing 12 runs over his first 15 2/3 innings despite a 12/3 K/BB ratio. He has since absolutely torched the opposition, allowing just four earned runs over his last 19 innings with a composite 30/4 K/BB ratio. He is coming off a start against the Rangers where he allowed two solo home runs and struck out six over six innings. Castillo, who began his career with Cincinnati, has been tough on the Braves in his career posting a 2.25 ERA, 2.63 FIP, and 3.44 xFIP over 28 innings in five career starts; he also had a good playoff outing against them in 2020. He hasn’t faced Atlanta since 2022 and has allowed just two runs against the Braves in his last 25 1⁄3 innings, including that playoff start.
Wednesday, May 1, 3:40 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Chris Sale (2024: (5 GS, 31.2 IP, 26.8 K%, 5.7 BB%, 3.69 ERA, 3.47 FIP)
Chris Sale will take his turn in the series finale on Wednesday. Sale is coming off one of his best starts of the season, where he held the Guardians to just one run over seven strong innings. It was the third straight game that Sale has logged seven innings. He has struck out at least six hitters in all five of his starts this season. Sale has some pretty sparkling numbers against the Mariners in his career: a 2.65 ERA, 2.76 FIP, and 2.64 xFIP in 74 2/3 innings across 12 career appearances. However, he hasn’t faced them since 2019, and his aggregate numbers would be much better if he hadn’t had a crazy, three-homers-in-three-innings appearance versus them on Opening Day 2019.
Emerson Hancock (5 GS, 26.2 IP, 17.3 K%, 4.5 BB%, 5.06 ERA, 5.07 FIP)
Former Georgia Bulldogs starter Emerson Hancock will make his first career start against the Braves in Wednesday’s finale. Hancock was the sixth overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft by the Mariners. He’s battled injury as a professional but made his major league debut last season. He will come into Wednesday’s start with an ERA over 5.00, but those numbers are skewed a bit by one rough outing where he allowed 11 hits and eight runs to the Brewers in just 3 1/3 innings. He has allowed a total of four runs combined over his last three starts, though it’s worth noting that his xFIP is still on the order of “meh” rather than good, which sets him apart in this strong Seattle rotation.
As a young arm with fewer than ten career starts under his belt so far, Hancock’s main issue as a command-over-stuff pitchability guy is a pretty obvious one: he can pound the zone and allow homers, or he can nibble and put guys on, and risk getting BABIPed.