All Schwell that ends well
I’ve been to Fenway Park twice, and I didn’t particularly enjoy it either time. I know the … atmosphere … is supposed to be the big draw, but outside of that, I didn’t find the experience all that great. It was hard to park, not easy to walk around, and the seats are awful. It’s a very first-world/modern problem, but I can’t say the history outweighs everything else.
So I’d be happy to see the Atlanta Braves take down the Boston Red Sox, especially behind a Spencer Schwellenbach masterpiece.
Spencer continues to pitch well. His xFIP is pretty similar to his breakout 2024, but he continues to do it differently. He’s striking out fewer hitters, but he’s getting enough groundballs to offset the additional contact. As I’ve said before, I’m not a huge fan of the exchange, but it’s still pretty early in the season.
Brayan Bello takes the hill for the Red Sox, and his underlying stats have really gone backward. After solid seasons in 2023 and 2024, 2025 looks good with an ERA in the mid-2s, but the peripherals are a disaster. He’s barely striking out more than he’s walked, but he’s stranded 93% (most of the time, you expect in the 70s) of the hitters that have reached base, which is why the ERA is as low as it is. That won’t continue, and it would be nice if that started today.
The biggest issue for Bello is that his velocity has backed up a whole mph, and his Statcast is no more excited than I am.
Bello throws 4 pitches – a sinker, slider, change, and four-seamer – and he does a pretty good job of spreading the wealth, throwing all 4 at least 20% of the time. He’s throwing more four-seamers in 2025, but maybe he shouldn’t. His Stuff+ and Location+ numbers are all significantly down across the board.
Gotta jump back on the horse after a tough loss last night, and gotta keep winning series. So it’s time to get Bello regressin’ to that mean.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Sunday, May 18th, 1:35 P.M. ET
Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
TV: FanDuel Sports Network South, FanDuel Sports Network Southeast
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan