The Braves are in danger of experiencing their second three-game skid of the year given that Yu Darvish will face off against Bryce Elder tonight
After winning six of seven to rebound from their tough West Coast road trip, the Braves have run into a bit of a barrier, scoring a lone run in back-to-back losses in each of their last two games. They’ll look to get back into the win column on Saturday night, but there’s one looming problem: the pitching matchup, featuring Yu Darvish facing Bryce Elder, may not be exactly conducive to winning.
Aside from a brief Injured List stint due to neck tightness, the 37-year-old Darvish is off to an excellent start in 2024, with his 75 FIP- reflecting his lowest mark in a season since 2020. On the flip side, his 96 xFIP- is actually his worst since 2018; in other words, he’s benefited to an extreme degree from a very low 4.5 percent HR/FB rate. That said, he’s just been flat nails since returning from his short stay on the shelf, with a combined 15/2 K/BB ratio across 17 innings spanning three starts. One of those outings, his most recent, involved shutting down the Dodgers with a 7/1 K/BB ratio over seven frames, in which they managed just three baserunners. The Padres have won each of his last five starts, and have only dropped two of eight on the season.
After winning six of seven to rebound from their tough West Coast road trip, the Braves have run into a bit of a barrier, scoring a lone run in back-to-back losses in each of their last two games. They’ll look to get back into the win column on Saturday night, but there’s one looming problem: the pitching matchup, featuring Yu Darvish facing Bryce Elder, may not be exactly conducive to winning.
Aside from a brief Injured List stint due to neck tightness, the 37-year-old Darvish is off to an excellent start in 2024, with his 75 FIP- reflecting his lowest mark in a season since 2020. On the flip side, his 96 xFIP- is actually his worst since 2018; in other words, he’s benefited to an extreme degree from a very low 4.5 percent HR/FB rate. That said, he’s just been flat nails since returning from his short stay on the shelf, with a combined 15/2 K/BB ratio across 17 innings spanning three starts. One of those outings, his most recent, involved shutting down the Dodgers with a 7/1 K/BB ratio over seven frames, in which they managed just three baserunners. The Padres have won each of his last five starts, and have only dropped two of eight on the season.
It’d be nice to be able to say the same sorts of things about Bryce Elder, but I can’t without lying to you. On the season, Elder has a 117 ERA-, 125 FIP-, and 107 xFIP-, which are reasonable numbers for a back-of-the-rotation starter, but not exactly gladdening or anything close. If you’re looking for a positive, it could be that Elder had a 6/0 K/BB ratio in 5 2⁄3 innings against the Mets last time out, and looked mechanically a lot more like the guy that appeared last April, May, and June, as opposed to what happened after. You could even go so far as to say that Elder is coming off the best start of his career: his 24 FIP- and 56 xFIP- last time out are his best-ever marks.
Still, it’s not exactly an ideal starting pitching matchup, even if pre-game odds still have the Braves as substantial favorites.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Saturday, May 18, 7:15 p.m. ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia
TV: FOX
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan