Atlanta dropped three of four to begin its homestand and will be looking to bounce back against the Athletics.
After a tough series loss against the Washington Nationals, the Atlanta Braves will look to get back on track as they wrap up their homestand with a three-game series against the Oakland Athletics.
After a 3-3 road trip, the Braves returned home and hoped to build some momentum but instead were outscored 18-9 while dropping three of four to the Nationals, despite out-barreling them 8-4. Atlanta is 31-23 for the season and is 6.5 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East standings.
There is a chance that this rough stretch will be a distant memory by the time all is said and done for the 2024 season, but as of right now, the Braves aren’t getting the types of results they need to resemble a good baseball team. The pitching has been outstanding, but the offense has scuffled for more than a month. While there are myriad reasons for the struggles, and not all of them are things the Braves can control, there just doesn’t look like there’s any relief coming around the corner. The barreled balls are still outs, and they’re not homers often enough even when they do fall. Too many guys in the lineup are all working through something, whether that’s an approach problem or a return from injury, at the same time.
Many looked at this homestand against the Nationals and the Athletics as a chance for Atlanta to bank some wins. However, the truth is, this team simply isn’t getting good enough results offensively to take any team for granted.
The Athletics come into the series with a 23-35 record, good for fourth place in the AL West. Oakland just dropped a three-game series to the Tampa Bay Rays, suffering back-to-back walk-off losses on Wednesday and Thursday. They have dropped six of their last 10 overall and are 9-18 in May so far.
It’s kind of hard to pin down whether the Athletics should be happy with their season so far or not. The roster wasn’t entirely devoid of talent, and they were projected for around 70 wins before the season began. Their current pace is notably worse than that, but a number of other teams have been a lot less effective in the early going, which has taken the focus off of potential drama surrounding their stadium situation and plundered roster.
While the Athletics are undermanned and dealing with an abundance of pitching injuries, they’ve been reasonably competitive anyway. They’re 22nd in position player fWAR and are actually 18th in wRC+. But, they’ve struggled to convert that into runs, as they’re bottom five in runs per game. They’re actually middle of the pack in xwOBA, which is kind of an odd thing — if you had asked anyone before the season where you expected their batting quality to be through May, it seems unlikely that anyone would’ve said “league average.” How they’ve done it could be familiar to Braves fans (though maybe not people who started watching the Braves in 2024…): they hit a lot of homers and strike out a bunch. Only three teams have more homers than Oakland so far; only one team has a higher strikeout rate.
While the offense has had some good signs, perhaps surprisingly, so has the pitching. The team ranks 20th in pitching fWAR, and the bullpen is a top-five unit. It’s been an amazing turnaround so far from a pitching staff that was last, by a mile, in terms of both rotation and bullpen last year. The relief corps benefits greatly from rookie Mason Miller, who is probably already the top relief arm in the game at this point. (He leads MLB relievers in fWAR with 1.6, and it’s just May 31.) Thanks to the work of Miller and others, the Athletics are 9-10 in one-run games. However, it appears that one of their key arms, Lucas Erceg is headed to the injured list with forearm discomfort.
Offensively, the team has gotten great stuff from Brent Rooker (1.5 fWAR, wOBA and xwOBA both right around .400), JJ Bleday, Shea Langeliers, and Abraham Toro. That’s helped make up for the fact that a bunch of their regulars have also been awful, including Tyler Nevin, Zack Gelof, J.D. Davis, Esteury Ruiz, Seth Brown, Nick Allen, and Ryan Noda. All seven of those guys have fWAR below 0.0 and both a wOBA and xwOBA below .300. Pitching-wise, things are all over the place, and Oakland has used 22 different pitchers already. They’ve had some good (Miller and fellow reliever T.J. MacFarland) and some bad (former Brave Alex Wood), and pretty much everything in between, too.
The Braves dropped two of three to the A’s in Oakland last season and this is a much more capable offense than the club they had last year. This is a chance for them to get some revenge, but more importantly, a chance to turn the page from a pretty crappy May and get back to winning baseball games.
Friday, May 31, 7:20 p.m. ET
JP Sears (11 GS, 60.1 IP, 16.2 K%, 6.9 BB%, 3.88 ERA, 4.52 FIP)
Left-handed JP Sears will get the start for the Athletics in the opener. Sears has been as close to a consistent option as Oakland has in the rotation. He is coming off a weird start where he allowed one unearned run over six innings against the Astros but did so with just a 1/1 K/BB ratio. Sears faced the Braves once last season where he allowed one run over six innings.
As a whole, Oakland’s pitching staff has been hampered by some poor defense, but not Sears, who has a 105 ERA-, 118 FIP-, and a 124 xFIP-. Those numbers are basically the same as his career line (108/119/119). For the season, though, Sears has had a few really different stretches. He started the season with a 9/9 K/BB ratio across four starts, but allowed just two homers in that span. He then unspooled a great 24/4 K/BB ratio in his next four outings, but allowed five homers in the process. Right now, he appears to be reverting to what he did early on, with just a 7/4 K/BB ratio, but only one homer allowed, over his last three starts.
Reynaldo Lopez (9 GS, 51.1 IP, 23.3 K%, 8.9 BB%, 1.75 ERA, 2.86 FIP)
Reynaldo Lopez was originally scheduled to start Thursday’s game against the Nationals, but the Braves elected to start Ray Kerr and give Lopez and the rest of the rotation an additional day of rest. Lopez has provided a perhaps-unexpected boost to Atlanta’s rotation. He allowed three runs (two earned) over 4 2/3 innings before a rain delay cut his last start short. Lopez has made nine starts this season and has allowed two earned runs or less in eight of them. He’s still riding a crazy-low HR/FB rate and crazy-good strand rate, as attested to by his 43/74/98 line, but a 98 xFIP- is nothing to scoff at.
Saturday, June 1, 4:10 p.m. ET
Aaron Brooks (3 GS, 17.1 IP, 11.4 K%, 6.3 BB%, 3.63 ERA, 5.38 FIP)
Injuries have forced the Athletics to reach deep into their starting pitcher depth. Aaron Brooks will make his fourth start since joining the rotation in Saturday’s matchup. Brooks was tagged for nine hits and five runs in 4 1/3 innings in his last start against the Astros, but only one of the runs was earned. He was really good in his season debut (also against the Astros), but has struggled in two starts since. Saturday’s start will be Brooks first career appearance against Atlanta in a career that started all the way back in 2014 and has seen him pitch in parts of six major league seasons.
Chris Sale (10 GS, 63.2 IP, 31.6 K%, 3.6 BB%, 2.12 ERA, 2.11 FIP)
Chris Sale will be looking to get June off on a good note and continue a dominant run of starts in Saturday’s game. Sale allowed one run and struck out eight over seven innings in his last start in Pittsburgh. He’s allowed a total of two runs over his last five starts combined (32 innings) and has 45 strikeouts over that span while issuing just two walks.
Sunday, June 2, 1:35 p.m. ET
Charlie Morton (10 GS, 56.2 IP, 24.8 K%, 9.7 BB%, 4.29 ERA, 3.90 FIP)
Charlie Morton will be looking to get back on track in Sunday’s series finale. He was hammered early and often in his last start where he allowed 12 hits and eight runs in 5 2/3 innings against the Nationals. It has been a tough stretch for Morton, who has struggled with his command of late and has allowed 12 earned runs over his last 13 2/3 innings, despite a 19/9 K/BB ratio in the process — his BABIP-against in those three starts is an even .500. Still, nine walks in three starts is not exactly exciting stuff, either.
TBD
The Athletics haven’t announced their starter for Sunday’s game. If they stay on schedule, then it will likely be right-hander Mitch Spence, who started the season in the bullpen but has been pretty decent in three starts this year, and stifled the Rays for 5 1⁄3 innings on Tuesday.