The Braves have cruised in Colorado so far, and they’ll try to make it three straight games of smooth Sale-ing
After a rough start to the season, the Braves have played very well, and now have a chance to match wins with losses, provided they can pull off a third straight win at Coors Field and sweep away the Rockies. The first two games of this series have been relatively easy for Atlanta, although they’ve benefited from massive xwOBA overperformance while slapping the ball around Colorado defenders, while the Rockies have had to deal with that and their own xwOBA underperformance amid all their other problems.
While the Braves were able to make hay with Bryce Elder and AJ Smith-Shawver grabbing the first two starts of this series, they’ll be able to send Chris Sale to the mound today — something that should be supremely helpful to their efforts to secure a sweep and a .500 record, assuming karma doesn’t intervene to punish them for their aberrant wins earlier in the week. Sale, to this point, is no stranger to apparently some kind of divine leveling after his Cy Young campaign last year: he currently rocks a 130 ERA- on the back of a 94 FIP- and 92 xFIP-. Sure, the peripherals aren’t exactly Chris Sale numbers, but he’s hardly deserving of the .400 BABIP-against, especially when his xERA is actually lower than his FIP and xFIP. In darkly amusing fashion, Sale actually had his lowest ERA of the season in his last start, despite the worst xFIP he’s posted to date — just a 4/2 K/BB ratio in five innings against the Diamondbacks.
While we can all say “Pobrecito Chris Sale” in unison over how his season has started, he’s got nothing on the Rockies’ scheduled starter for today: Chase Dollander. The ninth overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, Dollander’s career has gotten off to a start so horrendous, you wonder which witch doctor or strega he crossed, and when. To wit: Dollander has a 170 ERA-, 174 FIP-, and 100 xFIP- through four starts. Sure, the xERA is also horrible (but not quite that level of horrible), but still, he’s got a HR/FB rate near 30 percent, and the universe owes him a break. He actually had a very nice 18/5 K/BB ratio through his first three starts, but gave up eight homers in the process (six in nine innings at Coors Field) — but followed those up with a bit of a clunker against the Royals in which he made an adjustment to stay away from the zone a bit, but ended up with a 3/2 K/BB ratio and a soggy BABIP-afflicted line in the process.
The Braves have yet to homer in this series; if they somehow manage not to do so against Dollander and the Colorado relief corps, they will have failed to do so at Coors Field for the first time ever (thanks, acebravo!)
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Wednesday, April 30, 3:10 p.m. EDT
Location: Coors Field, Denver, CO
TV: FanDuel Sports South / Southeast
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan