Atlanta will look to continue launching salvos against Zach Eflin
If the Braves can win one more game today, in what will be Hurston Waldrep’s second career start, they can win all three against the Rays and push their winning streak to four. For over a month, it felt like all the Braves could count on were barrels becoming outs, but the worm appears to be turning, as there has been a parade of barreled Braves homers over the first two games of this series.
Still, this game may hinge on Waldrep showing a lot more than he did in his MLB debut, or being pre-emptively pulled from the game if he doesn’t. Waldrep’s first start, last Sunday, saw him face the minimum through three thanks to a caught stealing, with a 1/1 K/BB ratio. But then, things quickly unraveled as soon as the Nationals got a second try at him: he retired just two of the nine batters he faced in the fourth, walking three of them and giving up a big three-run homer on a misplaced fastball in the process. Things then went from bad to worse as he left the bases loaded and then Aaron Bummer allow C.J. Abrams to unload them with a double, but that is honestly less of a concern than the lack of strikeouts and going absolutely pitching verklempt the second time through. So, the hope is that both of those things improve against the Rays today — but if they don’t, maybe the Braves can take whatever effectiveness Waldrep has to give them, and relieve him of duty before things get out of hand.
Offensively, the Braves have enjoyed some big games the last two days. They came into the series second-to-last in the rate of barrels becoming hits, and dead last in the rate of barrels becoming homers (with the Rays in the bottom two along with them in both cases); they’ve now at least leapfrogged the Rays in the latter, though they’re still a ways away from even the third-to-last Marlins. They’re also going to have an interesting matchup to contend with today after crushing Zack Littell and then stinging three longballs off Ryan Pepiot the third time through: Zach Eflin.
After seven seasons as basically a dead-average starter for the Phillies (106 ERA-, 100 FIP-, 101 xFIP-). Eflin signed a $40 million, three-year deal with the Rays ahead of the 2023 season. That deal was actually the largest the Rays had committed in free agency, ever. Eflin, like many players, made the Rays look like geniuses after signing, as he reeled off a 4.8 fWAR with a career high 177 2⁄3 innings and an 86/73/73 line, finishing in the top ten in fWAR, FIP-, and xFIP-. He posted his best strikeout rate aside from 2020, and a miniscule 3.4 percent walk rate.
But, now in 2024, things are a little different for the 2023 breakout star. Largely, the strikeouts have gone poof — he’s never had strikeout rates this low since his first two partial seasons in the majors, where he was getting roughed up. On the flip side, Eflin basically isn’t walking anyone, either — he has just four free passes in 12 starts — but he’s leaving a lot to his defense. Consequently, his line for the year is 109/93/94, which is far from bad, but isn’t exactly as revelatory as last year or anything. His whiff rates actually aren’t that different on a pitch level, but he’s essentially just pounding the zone to an extreme degree. In particular, whereas last year he’d sometimes run his sinker armside out of the zone and let his curve fall below the zone, he’s not doing that as much anymore; while he’s increased his sweeper usage, too, that pitch is also really hitting the edge of the zone rather than seeking obvious chases outside of it. Suffice to say, hitters have been rewarded for taking big hacks assuming he’s going to be in the zone more than last year. That could bode well for the Braves in this game, but Eflin’s been consistently so-so for five starts now (2-3 strikeouts, zero walks, 0-1 homers. 1-4 runs charged). so this game will probably hinge on what happens with Waldrep rathern anything else.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Sunday, June 16, 1:35 p.m. ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
TV: Bally Sports Southeast, MLB Network (out of market only)
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM