Baldwin had a big day with three batted balls over 100 mph
There was plenty to like for the Gwinnett Stripers, as the two top hitting prospects for the Atlanta Braves among those in full season ball both had big days with Drake Baldwin going deep in the ninth inning. Dylan Dodd’s new slider for the year was also impressive, and while there have been inconsistencies in his performance he seems to be slowly rounding into form. Of course the biggest news of the day comes from Rome, where AJ Minter made a rehab appearance and looked sharp for the Emperors.
(35-39) Gwinnett Stripers 9, (32-41) Charlotte Knights 2
- Nacho Alvarez, SS: 2-4, 2B, BB, RBI, .364/.417/.659
- Drake Baldwin, DH: 3-4, HR, BB, 4 RBI, .325/.426/.550
- Luke Waddell, 2B: 3-3, BB, .227/.313/.318
- Dylan Dodd, SP: 5 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, 4.80 ERA
- Matt Carasiti, RP: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 3.00 ERA
After a couple of poor performances out of Drake Baldwin and Nacho Alvarez the duo was back leading the Stripers offense on Saturday, with Baldwin once again showing a nature for consistently hitting the ball hard. It didn’t matter much what the Knights pitchers were throwing at Baldwin this game, he was locked in and hitting everything well. Two at bats in particular stand out. Into the seventh inning Baldwin had a tough matchup, facing off against hard-throwing Prelander Berroa. Baldwin didn’t blink however, and on the hardest pitch from Berroa all game sent his 99.3 mph fastball right back up the middle for a base hit. Then there was his ninth inning home run. Baldwin battled deep into the count, and got a slider pitch on the inner that he could turn on and smacked it for a three-run home run that put the game out of reach. Baldwin has had much of his success on pitches on the inning half of the plate, and has shown an ability to not get beat in that spot by secondary pitches.
Then there is Nacho Alvarez, who did strike out twice but on both occasions he struck out looking at sliders. He got a steady diet of breaking balls all game, and in his first at bat a well-place slider on the outside edge rung him up. In the next at bat the same pitcher tried to go outer half slider again to Alvarez, and this time he was sitting on the pitch and gapped one to right center field for a double. Alvarez has continued to show that there isn’t many ways you can consistently beat him, making quality contact in just this series against really any sort of pitch mix and approach the Knights have taken. It doesn’t seem that he’s uncomfortable at all with the transition to Triple-A.
We got an interesting outing from Dylan Dodd, who outside of a third inning home run on a middle-middle fastball was in complete control of this game. The Braves are still limiting his pitches and held him at 71 this game, but he maintained his fastball velocity and averaged 93.8 mph on the pitch. He got six whiffs on his fastball as well, but none of this is the interesting stuff. Dodd has been working with a new slider/sweeper, and the usage has steadily increased over the past couple of starts. At the major league level last season Dodd’s slider only averaged 1993 rpm, however this new pitch averaged over 2400 rpm this start and over 2500 in his previous outing, and so far in limited usage has produced 5 whiffs on 12 swings this month. He threw the ball harder this outing than he has in the past, only sitting around 10-11 mph below his fastball velocity. Dodd’s feel for locating the pitch is still in the very early stages, but the movement is nasty and this is a promising development for a guy whose big issue has been the lack of a strikeout pitch. Especially as a reliever — where in his one appearance he averaged 95.3 mph on his fastball — this gives him a pitch that if he can develop the location on could make him a serious threat to get back to Atlanta this season.
Swing and Misses
Dylan Dodd – 13
(30-37) Mississippi Braves 4, (40-27) Tennessee Smokies 5
- Cody Milligan, CF: 0-5, .219/.279/.319
- Javier Valdes, DH: 1-3, BB, .214/.279/.375
- Tyler Tolve, C: 1-3, HR, 2 RBI, .184/.243/.321
- David Fletcher, SP: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 3.86 ERA
- Rolddy Munoz, RP: 1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 6.75 ERA
It was a bad bullpen day for the M-Braves and it ruined a decent-looking start from David Fletcher. Fletcher has largely not been all that great in Double-A, walking a ton of guys, but the hitters at this level haven’t quite figured out the novelty of his knuckleball and as such the contact quality has largely been poor. In terms of covering innings Fletcher gives Mississippi a lot of options, and he did well today with only two runs allowed. Then came the bullpen, where Rolddy Munoz’s inability to locate anything lately has really been his downfall. Munoz has 23 strikeouts in 14 2⁄3 innings at Double-A, but he is just spraying his pitches across the zone and has allowed both walks and far too many hittable fastballs/sliders.
It’s been a tough season for Mississippi offensively, even when they have had prospects in action, and the current iteration of this lineup is largely barren. It’s been nice to see Javier Valdes get more playing time, and he has three home runs in his last six games. Valdes is a guy I’m surprised hasn’t gotten more time, while he is limited defensively he has done nothing but hit since getting to Double-A. This is spread across now three seasons, with a lot of time on the bench this year and some injury troubles in 2023, but in 113 Double-A games he has a 112 wRC+, 19.5% strikeout rate, 14.4% walk rate, and 13 home runs. In a lineup that is really bereft of players who project to major league projections it’s confusing to see someone who has hit so well throughout his professional career be cast into such a limited role. That said with Baldwin in Gwinnett there is more of an opening for Valdes to get time, and since then Valdes has played six games and has a 280 wRC+.
Swing and Misses
David Fletcher – 4
Rolddy Munoz – 3
(37-29) Rome Emperors 3, (27-41) Greenville Drive 5
- Kevin Kilpatrick Jr., CF: 1-4, BB, .256/.314/.372
- EJ Exposito, SS: 2-4, 2B, .291/.350/.531
- Sabin Ceballos, 3B: 1-3, HR, 2 RBI, .268/.358/.371
- AJ Minter, SP: 1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 0.00 ERA
- Riley Frey, RP: 6 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 2.00 ERA
AJ Minter looked sharp in his inning of work, showcasing all of his pitches and locating well, and it’s no surprise to say he was overwhelming to High-A hitters. The only reason he even allowed a run was a ground ball that snuck by Sabin Ceballos turning into a hit and then EJ Exposito sailing a routine throw to first base that couldn’t have been reached from a helicopter. Then the ball went to Riley Frey, a guy we haven’t talked about much that has been good all year. Frey’s velocity backed up a bit after the draft and his whiff rates since his promotion to High-A have plummeted, but he provides a real challenge and could have some major league relief potential. Frey’s changeup/slider combination is solid, but what makes him intriguing is the low arm slot he utilizes and with his already shorter frame and solid extension he creates a flat approach angle and a release point that is devastating to lefties. Left handed batters have a .379 OPS against Frey this season, and while he needs something to handle right handed batters to make him an MLB quality arm, his funky delivery and an uptick in velocity in short appearances does make him at the very least a fringe caliber prospect.
Bit of a weird situation with Sabin Ceballos this game. First off he hit an early home run and it was probably the best swing we’ve gotten from him this season. Ceballos got an inside fastball and turned on the ball, really opening up and driving it to left field for a home run. Ceballos has disappointed with his power production this season, but on occasion flashes that easy raw power that shows you why a team would be giving him a chance to develop. The weird came in the fifth inning, when after a line out Ceballos being from what I can tell jawing with someone on the other team, leading a handful of players from the Drive to leave the dugout and for Ceballos to be tossed from the game. It’s hard to tell exactly what happened, but both sides were given warnings.
This Ceballos home run was much of the offense that we got in the game, though we got some more good-looking swings from EJ Exposito. First was a fourth inning double into the gap, a low fly ball that kicked off of the base of the wall and would lead to a run in the inning. In the sixth inning he just missed a home run, hitting a ball that looked like it would carry out off of the bat but was a bit too up in the air and got knocked down at the base of the wall for a fly out.
Swing and Misses
Riley Frey – 11
AJ Minter – 7
(27-40) Augusta GreenJackets 5, (36-32) Salem Red Sox 6
- Isaiah Drake, CF: 2-5, .164/.232/.279
- Will Verdung, 1B: 2-4, 2B, BB, RBI, .234/.366/.291
- Garrett Baumann, SP: 5 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 3.20 ERA
- Adam Shoemaker, RP: 3 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 6 K, 5.68 ERA
Garrett Baumann hit a stretch of rough pitching this month and started to see his numbers regress a bit, but he came out Saturday and had a fantastic evening which was ultimately spoiled by an error in Baumann’s final inning. Baumann needed only 76 pitches to get through his five innings, as he pounded the bottom of the zone with his sinker and forced eight ground ball outs. Baumann also recorded six strikeouts — the first time in his career he’s had that many strikeouts and one or fewer walks. I’m still in the same spot on Baumann, as you can’t discount a 19 year old with the toolset he has. Great strike thrower, decent velocity, and a changeup that projects easily to be a major league quality offering. Not many teenagers have that, but the slider is still holding him back and until he develops a breaking ball he probably won’t have dominant whiff rates like someone like his replacement in today’s game.
The Red Sox had to face off against the twin towers with 6’8 Baumann followed by 6’6 Adam Shoemaker, and they saw quite different approaches from those two. Adam Shoemaker has bounced between nasty and unplayable due to control issues, and in this game found himself somewhere in the middle of those two end points. Shoemaker’s slider is devastating and he has a 30.4% strikeout rate this season, but once again his ability to find any feel for the zone was his downfall as he issued four walks in this game. Shoemaker is still fairly young and the talent is apparent, but he has a long way to go and doesn’t seem to be getting there very quickly. He is one of those bigger guys that has trouble controlling his body and he may never reach that point or he may be one of those guys that just takes a bit longer into maturity before he has that feel.
The GreenJackets tortured Red Sox catcher Daniel McElveny. Salem has allowed the third most stolen bases in the league this season, and Augusta took advantage and racked up nine stolen bases on nine attempts. It probably would have been more if anyone could actually get on base, but as it was mostly Isaiah Drake and Will Verdung did the damage with each coming away with three swipes. Drake has done so well to quiet his lower body in his swing and stay on line to the ball, adding another two hits in this game. A bit more turn and pull from him would unlock more of his power, but right now I find it hard to complain about a guy going from where he was to now having struck out only six times in his past 42 plate appearances since the start of the Lynchburg series. It’s a mind-blowing and sudden turnaround for one of the most talented players in the system, and a reminder to exercise patience with players who are struggling.
Swing and Misses
Adam Shoemaker – 11
Garrett Baumann – 9
(8-25) FCL Braves 6, (22-12) FCL Rays 7
- Luis Guanipa, CF: 2-4, BB, .375/.423/.542
- John Gil, SS: 2-3, HR, 2 BB, 5 RBI, .254/.338/.352
- Junior Garcia, DH: 1-4, BB, RBI, .292/.396/.461
- David Rodriguez, SP: 3.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 9.49 ERA
- Isaac Gallegos, RP: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 0.00 ERA
Luis Guanipa continues to hit, and while the Braves are still taking his return from his hamstring injury slowly it seems only a matter of time before he’s healthy and forces his way to Augusta. Once again Guanipa was the spark plug for this offense, reaching base three times and bringing his OPS up to .965. Then there is John Gil, who had a hiccup in a few games immediately after FCL squad sat for so long due to rain outs, but has otherwise been amazing and sits with a strikeout rate below 20%. Gil has a powerful swing that produces a ton of leverage and momentum, and while I have some concerns his bat path will cause him issues both up and on the inner half, this is a guy who has both the raw strength to hit for power and a swing that is geared to get to that power consistently. Really an intriguing player and one to look for as a guy who could clip into our top 30 midseason.
(4-9) DSL Braves 2, (9-6) DSL Arizona Red 6
- Carlos Monteverde: 0-2, 2 BB, .282/.420/.385
- Juan Mateo, 2B: 0-5, .245/.362/.306
- Jose Pineda, SP: 3 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 4.50 ERA
It was an unimpressive day in the DSL with Juan Mateo going hitless, and most of the offensive production came from older players repeating the level. Michael Baez is a 19 year old catcher who went 2-4 in this game, and while he only has 42 career DSL plate appearances he has managed an impressive .960 OPS in those 13 games.