The Braves announced this morning that they’ve optioned right-hander AJ Smith-Shawver to Triple-A Gwinnett, thus ending his bid for a spot in the team’s Opening Day rotation. He’ll begin the season in the upper minors and serve as one of the team’s first lines of defense should an injury occur on the starting staff.
It’s not an entirely unexpected move. The top spots in the Atlanta rotation are set in stone, with Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Chris Sale all assured roles heading into camp. That left the fifth spot to a likely battle between Smith-Shawver, Bryce Elder and offseason signee Reynaldo Lopez, whom the Braves plan to stretch back out as a starter after spending the last couple seasons in a bullpen role.
Lopez’s contract made him a favorite to begin with, but the fact that he’s yielded just one run and three hits with a 7-to-2 K/BB ratio and 53% grounder rate in eight spring innings surely hasn’t harmed his chances. Smith-Shawver, by comparison, has been tagged for seven runs on a dozen hits and three walks with 11 strikeouts in 7 2/3 spring frames. Elder, a 2023 All-Star, has had similar struggles to Smith-Shawver in his small sample of spring innings. In 7 2/3 frames, he’s been charged with six runs on the strength of 10 hits and three walks with 10 strikeouts. It might seem surprising to push an All-Star out of the rotation in favor of a converted reliever, but Elder did wilt in alarming fashion down the stretch in ’23, posting a 5.75 ERA with just a 15.1% strikeout rate against a 10.4% walk rate over his final 14 starts/72 innings.
The composition of the Opening Day rotation is in some ways immaterial — particularly for a Braves club that’ll enter the year as an overwhelming postseason favorite. In all likelihood, each of Lopez, Smith-Shawver and Elder will start games for the Braves this season. Injuries limited Fried to just 77 2/3 innings last year, while Sale has pitched only 151 innings over the past four seasons combined. Morton has been a workhorse, ranking sixth in the majors in games started and 11th in innings pitched dating back to 2018 — but he’s also entering his age-40 season. Injuries are an inevitability among big league pitchers, so the Braves will likely have to tap into their impressive collection of depth arms — headlined by Elder and Smith-Shawver — at various points in 2024.
While the Smith-Shawver demotion clearly isn’t a means of manipulating his service time, it’s still worth noting that the decision could have implications in that regard. The 21-year-old made his MLB debut in 2023 and started five games (plus one relief appearance), pitching to a 4.26 ERA with a 20-to-11 K/BB ratio in 25 1/3 innings. He picked up 50 days of service last season, meaning he’d reach a full year of MLB service with another 122 days on this year’s roster (roughly two-thirds of the season). If he reaches that full year of service, Smith-Shawver would be controllable through the 2029 season. If he spends fewer than 122 days on the roster, he’ll be controllable through the 2030 season.
Smith-Shawver soared from High-A to the majors in 2023, pitching to a combined 2.76 ERA across three minor league levels before making that MLB debut. Baseball America ranks him as the game’s No. 42 prospect. He’s ranked 63rd at FanGraphs and 69th at MLB.com.