The Braves lack of fear around injured pitching prospects may have netted another gem
In prospect talk we tend to focus on the best-of-the-best in any given system. This has validity, as those are the prospects that are most likely to be relevant names five years from now. However, sometimes it’s important to take a look at guys further down the list who may show propensity for moving north on top prospect lists. Today’s look is at Luke Sinnard last season’s third round pick who due to Tommy John surgery lost his entire junior year headed into the draft. Now he finds himself in a system with a deep crop of pitching talent ahead of him in development, and as a result has not received his just desserts for his performances this season.
Background
Standing at 6’8” tall and weighing in at 250 lbs, you’d be forgiven for expecting Sinnard to be a mercurial flamethrower, whose frame and fastball pushed him into national recognition. Instead his story revolves around a deep pitch mix and his ability to command the ball well despite a relatively short time as a pitcher. Sinnard split time at Beech Senior High School in Tennessee between football and baseball, and when he finally focused his full attention on the diamond the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic put a screeching halt to his development. As a result he entered 2021 alongside teammate and future 2nd overall pick Chase Burns with minimal prep experience. Sinnard quickly blossomed as a D-1 caliber prospect, however, eventually deciding to attend Western Kentucky where he scuffled in limited action. Still, he did enough to earn a chance to transfer to Indiana in 2023, where he blossomed into a 2nd-team All-Big Ten selection in his first season. Sinnard unfortunately injured himself in the NCAA regionals in 2023, and ultimately underwent Tommy John surgery which robbed him of the 2024 season. His rise may have been temporarily stalled, but his work ethic showed in the classroom as he was named to the Academic All-Big 10 first team in 2024, and when he was healthy for the 2024 draft combine he impressed scouts. The Atlanta Braves ultimately took a chance on Sinnard in the third round with the 99th overall pick, adding yet another player to their list of low-experience arms they’ve drafted under Alex Anthopoulos.
Braves career
Atlanta kept Luke Sinnard off of the mound in 2024, and so far in 2025 have kept him on a strict pitch count with him not throwing more than 80 pitches yet. Still, with just 332 registered pitches to his name since the summer of 2023 he has found a way to be one of the system’s most impressive arms. Single-A hitters have been unprepared to handle a pitcher with Sinnard’s arsenal, as he has allowed just a 1.50 ERA/3.06 FIP while striking out 32.9% of the batters he has faced. The one wrinkle is that Sinnard hasn’t found his footing with his command just yet, with a walk rate north of 12%, but when he is in the strike zone hitters are whiffing 35% of the time. Sinnard is coming off of a relatively poor outing where he walked four guys over four innings, but he has also had gaudy performance like his back-to-back outings where he struck out 15 batters in 8 1⁄3 innings.
One of the aspects of Sinnard’s game that makes him so effective is the spin he is able to enact on all of his pitches. His fastball has double-plus carry, and though with his size that movement plays down he is still able to miss bats when he is locating effectively at the top of the strike zone. One important aspect for Sinnard is his improved velocity now that he is pitching full time. Prior to his injury he was sitting in the low 90’s and occasionally popping 95 on the zone, but has gotten to the point now where he is sitting 93-95 with his fastball. Given his size and lack of experience there may be even another tick in the tank as the Braves have done a lot of work in unlocking extra velocity in guys at the lower levels, though with size and jerky 3⁄4 arm action everyone involved in his development is going to have to work hard to keep his delivery consistent and maximize his command. His velocity does tend to back a bit once he gets above the 40 pitch mark, though at this point I’m leaning towards that being a result of not having fully built his stamina back up. It’s something to monitor over the next couple of months but not a reason for concern.
Sinnard works with three secondary offerings, and at this stage the Braves have him working his pitch mix in a relatively predictable fashion. This will change as he gets to the upper levels, but right now the Braves have aspects of his game they want him working on. He has a slider which he primarily uses against right-handed batters, which sits in the upper 80’s and can vary between a shorter, vertical shape and a sweeping action. The velocity and movement profile of pitch, regardless of which shape, is above average, but right now it’s the pitch that’s limiting him the most as he isn’t commanding it very well. He is consistently missing up with the pitch and leaves it over the plate around half the time, and while hitters at this level aren’t equipped to do damage to those sorts of mistakes he still isn’t getting consistent swing-and-miss in those locations. He needs to tighten up the command of that slider, but the shape of the pitch and how it interacts with his fastball shape is a positive takeaway early in the season.
Against left-handed batters Sinnard utilizes both a curveball and a splitter, with the latter being his most-used secondary. This isn’t necessarily indicative of the long-term plans for the Braves as Sinnard’s curveball was his best pitch headed into the draft, but right now they want him focusing on effectively utilizing his splitter. I’m a big fan of Sinnard’s curveball, as with his size that pitch buries itself straight down and is tough for any hitter to make solid contact against. The vertical shape of his slider tunnels well with the curveball and that’s why he does break that slider out against left-handed batters on occasion, and the curveball should give him another above average offering. The splitter is the pitch that has impressed me the most this season. Sinnard’s biggest concern coming into the draft was his low changeup usage, poor feel for the pitch, and a general concern he may struggle against left-handed batters at the next level. Right now, though, his splitter is his best pitch. His first couple of starts this season it was clear he was working through his feel for the pitch, but he has dialed in his command even if, like his slider, he does leave it up in the strike zone too often at this stage. His splitter sits right around the low 80’s velocity of his curveball, and has a steep drop with moderate arm side movement. He has been tormenting low level hitters with that pitch, and it rounds out his arsenal to give him a more comfortable starter projection.
Future
The focus for Sinnard this season is primarily on staying healthy. He needs the repition, and with the Braves starting depth they can afford to be slow with working him back to full strength. Still, there is reason to believe that Sinnard could move fast and potentially be a factor in rotation talks next season. He hasn’t shown a consistently plus pitch just yet, though the splitter is trending in the right direction, with his command and ability to hold his velocity late in games still holding him back from his full potential. However Sinnard threw plenty of strikes at Indiana and repeats his delivery well for someone his size and with his arm action, so there is plenty of reason to believe that command is only a matter of time. His improved velocity and splitter have drastically altered the projections for him, and how fast the command comes will dictate his pace through the system. He projects as a solid #4 starter and should be one of the system’s biggest riders headed into midseason top prospect lists.