Murphy’s arrow is pointing up after he finishes April with 37 strikeouts in 24 innings
The first month of minor league baseball is in the books, and for the first time this season we’re going to take a look at the movers in the Atlanta Braves system. One month is a relatively short period time in regards to development and it’s hard to make major shifts in opinions in that time frame, but a few players in the system have stood out in both directions.
Five Up
Garrett Baumann
Each year Augusta seems to be the site where one young pitcher really makes a name for himself, and this season it shouldn’t be a huge surprise that the player is Garrett Baumann. The Braves clearly valued Baumann as evidenced by his $750,000 signing bonus from last summer’s draft, and the 19 year old has done nothing but live up to draft status in his young career. Baumann has displayed command far ahead of where you would expect for a teenager with a 6’8 frame, and he has mixed in a changeup that has been a weapon for him against these lower level hitters. He frequently runs high ground ball rates and avoids hard contact, with the main knock being the lack of development with his slider. Baumann has done everything he could be asked to do so far in this short season, with a 1.25 ERA and 3.19 FIP.
Jhancarlos Lara
It may be weird to put Jhancarlos Lara here given that he hasn’t thrown a pitch in a competitive game this season, but he has been active and he has been fantastic. Lara wowed in 2023 with his raw stuff and performance in Augusta, and it seems that he has only further taken a leap this year. In his work so far this spring Lara is consistently sitting in the upper 90’s, touching up to 102 mph. His slider is sitting in the low-90s and he should be activated in the near future and head to Rome to start his season.
Owen Murphy
There was zero question Owen Murphy was going to be on the risers list, I mean he is the title of the article after all. Murphy ended 2023 on a tear between Augusta and Rome, and he has not missed a beat in his four outings this month. In Murphy’s worst start of the season he struck out 12 batters and allowed two earned runs across five innings of work. Murphy has simply taken his game to the next level, showcasing fastball command far ahead of his years and putting himself firmly in top 100 conversations. The concerns surrounding his fastball velocity haven’t abated, but when he places the pitch where he wants, at the angle he throws it, and with the spin he puts on it he has managed to still have success with his fastball as his primary offering. His curveball and slider have differentiated themselves this season, with the slower offering becoming more-and-more utilized in his arsenal. His April 25th start was one of the best outings from any Braves prospects in recent memories, and it seems every time he goes out there he takes his game to a new level. Double-A should be in his near future as he has taken High-A by storm.
Stephen Paolini
It has been a long road to this point for Stephen Paolini, who was drafted out of high school in 2019 but struggled to find any footing in the subsequent years. Now 23 years old Paolini has long since fallen off of top 30 prospect lists, but in 2024 he has seemed better than ever before. Paolini seems more comfortable than ever before at the plate, and so far in 2024 that has shown up as a dramatic reduction in strikeout rate. Paolini has dropped his strikeout rate to 21.4% while raising his walk rate to 17.9%, all while also putting up a career best in isolated power. Paolini will need to put in a lot more games like this to really raise his stock, but he is off to a fantastic start in 2024 and has always had the physical talent to succeed.
AJ Smith-Shawver
We ranked Smith-Shawver as the number one prospect in the system, so he can’t exactly go up in that regard, but another offseason of progression has seen Smith-Shawver take his game to another level. Smith-Shawver’s velocity has bumped up to him topping out at 99.8 mph in his past start with Gwinnett, and his slider looks sharper along with an improvement to his changeup. Smith-Shawver still needs to lock down his command, but the Braves are having him focus on his fastball at Triple-A with the hopes that when it does come he will slot into the major league rotation. Smith-Shawver’s numbers this year haven’t been great, but it is in line with the Braves current development plan for him and the focus on his fastball, so the results are secondary to progression we’ve seen from him.
Five Down
Diego Benitez
Benitez has struggled with the bat with Augusta, but that isn’t really my reasoning for feeling a bit of disappointment early in the season. Yes, everyone would have loved to see him come out and light up the world in A-ball, but I’ve been encouraged with the contact he has made and the swings he has put out there. He needs to make better swing decisions and recognize off speed stuff better, but that will come with time and he had a similar start to last season before making the adjustments he needed. The biggest concern has been Benitez’s defense at shortstop, as barring a major turnaround he will not stick at shortstop putting further stress on his bat to produce. Benitez’s hands and arm just are not up to the task at this point, and it seems he is so far away that it’s unlikely he’ll have an up-the-middle infield future. His physical development does ease some of those concerns as he has the raw power to play off of shortstop, but he is going to have to hit to get back to the status he had as an amateur.
Isaiah Drake
Isaiah Drake was simply not ready for full season ball this year, and adding an injury into the mix has made for a disappointing April for him. In his 11 games with Augusta he was overmatched at the plate, striking out 24 times in 47 plate appearances. Drake should head back to rookie ball when the season opens in May (assuming he is healthy), and that’s really not a huge deal for a guy who is still only 18 years old.
Jesse Franklin V
You may be just now realizing that you forgot Jesse Franklin existed, and that is because he once again finds himself on the 60-day injured list. I want to like Franklin for a lot of reasons. He has some of the best raw power in the system, and late in the year in 2023 he made significant progression in pitch selection and contact rate. These are good signs, but it also came from a 24 year old repeating Double-A, and he is now 25 years old and missing time again. It seems Franklin just hasn’t been able to stay healthy long enough to progress with any regularity, and that’s disappointing for a guy who I truly believe does have major league talent.
Seth Keller
Keller was poised to be one of the system’s rising stars at this time last season, but he hasn’t been able to get healthy since and after two rough outings he has been shut down again. Keller’s command since returning from injury last summer has been abysmal, and in four innings this spring he has already issued six walks. Keller’s velocity did come back up into the low 90’s, but until he can prove himself healthy and able to find the strike zone with any regularity I can’t consider him a top 30 guy anymore.
Cade Kuehler
Kuehler has done well enough for himself at Single-A this season, and I want to emphasize in most of these cases these are soft down arrows. I’m quick to note improvement in guys and love to give prospects their flowers, and in the case of guys not meeting my expectations I would rather give them a few months of development before being overly negative. In Kuehler’s case he just hasn’t missed bats at the rate I expected, with both his fastball and slider not being as dominant as I really expected a player of his caliber to be at Single-A. All that said there is a lot that has been cleaned up in his delivery and it will take time to adjust to those changes, so the relative lack of swing-and-miss may just be a product of a reinvention.