Chris Sale has been unhittable, and the Braves’ offense hasn’t been able to get the hits to fall in.
Well, I’m not going to call it “good” news, but last night, the Braves got both out-xwOBAed and out-wOBAed by the Pirates. They also had a bigger gap between the two, but it wasn’t quite as dumb of a result as in the series opener, even though they did get burned on a would-be-game-tying-barrel that went for an out.
Anyway, today is a new day, and the two prior losses mean that Chris Sale is once again being thrust into the stopped role; it will be the third time this season that he will make a start after back-to-back losses, and the second time in a row the Braves will ask him to help stop their mini-skid. Overall, the Braves are still looking to find some traction after a disappointing 10-11 May thus far. The season’s second month is quite reminiscent of the past two seasons at this point:
- In 2022, the Braves had a 13-15 May after starting the season 10-12; they were 23-26 through 49 games.
- In 2023, the Braves went 15-14 in May after starting the season 18-9; they were 30-19 through 49 games.
- Right now, the Braves are 10-11 in May after starting the season 19-9, and are 29-20 on the year.
While the reason the Braves are losing is the lack of offensive output, a lot of that dearth is due to factors they can’t control. As the snip below shows, while a .321 xwOBA in May is far closer to “fine” than “good,” one of the real culprits has been a persistent inability to get outputs that match inputs this month. As a result, 2023 appears to be playing out like mix of 2022 and 2023 in the early going — it’s a mix of playing well in April (from 2023) and hitting poorly in May (from 2022), along with a large divisional deficit opening up (also from 2022).
As a result, the Braves are no longer favorites for the division, and certainly have their work cut out for them in terms of the NL East. That said, we’re also seeing the effects of expanding the playoffs in the early going this season, with very few definitively-contending teams at this point, so the Braves’ postseason hopes aren’t really in jeopardy at all.
Anyway, in a micro sense, all the Braves can do is just win the games in front of them as much as they can, and the good news is that Chris Sale has been very conducive to that sort of thing so far. The Braves have won seven of his nine starts, and Sale himself has been a top ten starter in baseball, with a 54 ERA-, 58 FIP-, and 61 xFIP- through 56 2⁄3 innings. He’s been essentially untouchable as the team has scuffled in May:
- The month started with him throwing five innings with a 9/0 K/BB ratio and getting charged with a sole run on six hits.
- He then issued his only walk while striking out ten in six scoreless innings.
- After that, he threw seven innings of 9/0 K/BB ratio ball, followed by…
- Another almost-identical outing with seven innings of 9/0 K/BB ball.
We’re talking a completely silly line of 9/18/42 in four starts, and the Braves might need something like that again today if the offense and/or ball-in-play ghosts and/or HR/FB zephyrs won’t cooperate.
Meanwhile, the Pirates are riding high after swatting down the Braves twice in a row at this point, and they’ll be looking for Martin Perez to seal the sweep. Perez managed just 0.5 fWAR in a swing capacity across 141 2⁄3 innings with the Rangers last year, and nonetheless parlayed that into an $8 million, one-year contract from the Pirates this offseason. He’s been more or less the same level of (in?)effective so far in Pittsburgh, with a 117 ERA- and 119 FIP-, the latter giving him 0.2 fWAR on the season. While the pseudo-good news for him is that his 109 xFIP- so far this year is better than the 116 mark he had last year, it’s still not particularly good. The Pirates have gone 4-6 in his starts this year; meanwhile, Perez has allowed a homer in four straight starts (with eight homers total in that span), while also striking out five or fewer batters a game in his last five tries. If the Braves can get some kind of HR/FB swing in their favor, this could be a laugher, but not much has been a laugher for them lately.
Game Date/Time: Sunday, May 26, 1:35 p.m. ET
Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
TV: Bally Sports Southeast
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan
XM Radio: Online / Ch. 176