Yes, Jake Irvin has been really good. But so has Chris Sale.
The 2024 season has caused baseball watchers to recalibrate their expectations regarding what constitutes a reasonable level of offense, and therefore, what constitutes effective pitching. Even without any kind of expectations recalibration, though, tonight’s game is, at least on paper, lining up to be a pitching duel (what game isn’t these days?) between two top-30 arms in the game at the moment: the Braves’ Chris Sale, and the Nationals’ Jake Irvin.
Chris Sale is the more obvious “guy pitching like an ace” here. The question for him coming into 2024 was more about health than effectiveness, and he’s both aired it out without any injury issues, while also pitching at least as well as he has in any time in the last half-decade. His pitching line is currently 75/65/64 (ERA-, FIP-, xFIP-), and he is ninth in MLB in starting pitching fWAR with 2.0, even though the eight guys above him all have 12 or 13 starts to his 11.
That said, Sale had his worst outing of the year last time out, against the Athletics. After putting up a 45/2 K/BB ratio and getting charged with just two runs, none as a result of a homer, in May, Sale stumbled to a 4/1 K/BB ratio with two longballs yielded in just four innings last Saturday. It was the first time the Braves lost a Sale start since April 13, and by both ERA and FIP, it was his worst outing since his season debut in 2023. If you’re a pessimist, you might be watching this start to see whether Sale’s dominant early-season run is suddenly over; if you’re an optimist, you’re not expecting one bad outing where he didn’t struggle with walks to break his stride.
So, if Sale is the obvious ace guy in today’s matchup, that leaves Jake Irvin as the non-obvious guy. Has he been as good as Sale? Nah. But he’s still managed to slide into the top 30 among starting pitchers in fWAR, with an 84/80/88 line. The Braves got a firsthand look at his potential for dominance last week, when he shut them out for six innings with a 10/2 K/BB ratio. He then also beat the Guardians by hurling another six frames last Sunday with a 6/1 K/BB ratio.
Irvin’s turnaround is nothing short of dramatic, as he was a generic fifth starter with a 105/120/117 line last year. His changes are largely him de-emphasizing (but continuing to throw, for some reason) an ineffective sinker by largely not using it against lefties anymore, ever, and adding a cutter, he’s seen some non-dramatic improvements in location as well. In particular, he’s been able to dominate righties by attacking them in two distinct but repeatable locations with his four-seamer: on the outside edge, and also up-and-in. Lefties have a much easier time with it, and with Irvin in general, so a big key for tonight could be the Braves’ left-handed bats getting good results while he’s in the game.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Friday, June 7, 6:45 p.m. ET
Location: Nationals Park, Washington D.C.
TV: Bally Sports Southeast
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan
XM Radio: Ch. 177