One of these teams will be either at or over .500 by the end of this weekend. Here’s hoping it’s the Braves!
The Atlanta Braves are currently floating around .500 and now they’re heading up to Fenway Park to face off with another team that’s floating around .500. The Boston Red Sox are currently 21-22 and they’re under .500 thanks to the fact that they just got done getting swept by the resurgent Tigers. They’re locking horns this weekend as part of MLB’s attempt to make a rivalry weekend happen. Even though the Braves and Red Sox have been designated as interleague rivals since interleague play began back in the ‘90s, have y’all ever considered the Red Sox a serious rival? I know I haven’t. Maybe that’s just me and there are tons of Braves fans who have animosity towards the Red Sox. I haven’t seen it, though. That’s a digression, though.
Anyways, it would be unwise to assume that the Red Sox are simply going to roll over due to their current woes. This is still a very solid-looking team and on top of all that, the Braves are going to have to deal with an ace for once. They got lucky not having to deal with Paul Skenes or MacKenzie Gore but they will have to deal with Garrett Crochet in what should be a very intense pitching matchup right out of the gate. In fact, the Red Sox are probably going to be tough to deal with when it comes to their pitching. Boston’s pitching staff is in the top half of baseball when it comes to team ERA- (95) and they’re currently sporting the eighth-best FIP- at 91.
Meanwhile, their lineup is nothing to be trifled with, either. They’re collectively hitting .255/.326/.421 with a .328 team wOBA and 106 wRC+ as a unit. Alex Bregman was their big offseason acquisition and he’s been living up to all expectations so far — I’d imagine that .314/.392/.589 with a .420 wOBA, 170 wRC+ and 11 homers through 199 plate appearances will do the trick, right? Wilyer Abreu has also been extremely productive for the Red Sox so far and even though he’s currently in an open and public spat with the front office, Rafael Devers is still getting the job done on the field. Carlos Narváez and Kristian Campbell have also served as reliable options as well. This won’t be a walk in the park for Atlanta’s pitching staff at all.
Friday, May 16, 7:10 p.m. ET (FanDuel Sports South/Southeast, MLB Network)
LHP Chris Sale (9 GS, 47.2 IP, 30.2 K%, 6.1 BB%, 3.97 ERA, 95 ERA-, 2.91 FIP, 74 FIP-, 1.2 fWAR)
Over his past few starts, Chris Sale has been leaning more towards the version that we saw in 2024 than the version that the Red Sox traded to the Braves for Vaughn Grissom. He had some more hard luck against the Pirates as they dinked and dunked their way into three runs (two earned) over 5.2 innings, Still, Sale struck out eight batters while only walking two, so it’s not like he wasn’t completely ineffective. If the process matches the results, then this could be a good night for Sale.
It could also work out if Sale picks up where he left off from the last time he faced his former team. Back in May 2024, Sale pitched six shutout innings and struck out ten Red Sox batters while only handing out one walk. Yeah, let’s have more of that.
LHP Garrett Crochet (9 GS, 56 IP, 28.9 K%, 9.3 BB%, 1.93 ERA, 46 ERA-, 2.60 FIP, 62 FIP-, 1.7 fWAR)
Yep, there’s no escaping the other team’s ace this time. Garrett Crochet had a fine season pitching for the White Sox last year and he’s essentially walking the Chicago-to-Boston trail that Chris Sale blazed for him (maybe we’ll see him don a Braves uniform down the road?). He’s been very effective for the Red Sox so far this season — he’s only given up two runs or fewer in seven of the nine starts that he’s made so far. This included him making it into the eighth inning with 11 strikeouts against his former team. Phew!
This’ll be Atlanta’s first time seeing him since April of 2024, which is when Crochet basically confirmed to the baseball world that he was for real. Crochet went seven innings and struck out eight while only giving up one walk, three hits and a single run. This was a rare series win for the 2024 White Sox and it doesn’t happen without Crochet and his deadly usage of a four-seamer, cutter and sinker.
Saturday, May 17, 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX)
RHP Grant Holmes (8 GS, 45.2 IP, 23.7 K%, 11.3 BB%, 4.14 ERA, 99 ERA-, 5.18 FIP, 130 FIP-, -0.2 fWAR)
Let’s all hope that Grant Holmes isn’t falling into “one good start then one bad start” territory because that’s how it’s been going for him over his past five starts. He was effective in a win over the Twins on April 20 but then the Diamondbacks bombed him six days later. He was valiantly resistant against the Dodgers in his following outing before having an underwhelming stint against the Reds after that. He shut down the Nationals in his most recent outing and now is the time to hope that he can break the combo and deliver a strong performance at Fenway Park.
RHP Lucas Giolito (3 GS, 16.1 IP, 20.6 K%, 5.9 BB%, 5.51 ERA, 131 ERA-, 3.71 FIP, 90 FIP-, 0.2 fWAR)
Giolito didn’t make his 2025 debut until the end of April after he suffered a minor hamstring ailment during spring training, so it took him a couple of starts before he was finally able to have a start where he looked pretty good. That was his most recent start, which is when he got into the seventh inning while only giving up two hits, one walk and a single run. This was after he missed the entire 2024 season due to elbow surgery, so an adjustment period is fair to expect.
With that being said, expectations for Giolito in this one should be easy for him to live up to. This’ll be Giolito’s first time seeing the Braves since 2023 when he was a member of the Angels and the Braves gave him a beating to remember. Take note of the inning and the score in this clip. “Phew,” I say again.
Sunday, May 18, 1:35 p.m. ET (FanDuel Sports South/Southeast, MLB Network)
RHP Spencer Schwellenbach (9 GS, 54.1 IP, 20.8 K%, 5.0 BB%, 3.31 ERA, 79 ERA-, 3.56 FIP, 90 FIP-, 0.8 fWAR)
Schwellenbach had a rough patch for a bit there but he appears to have gotten things back under control. He went six innings and only gave up one run against the Reds back on May 8 before he proceeded to pitch seven innings while only giving up two runs against the Nationals in his most recent start. While he did walk two batters in each of those starts (which qualifies as “walking the ballpark” for a guy like Schwellenbach), it’s not a huge cause for concern and he’ll probably be just fine going forward.
With that being said, Schwellenbach will be looking to set the record straight against the Red Sox. You could argue that Schwellenbach’s first trip to Boston was his “Welcome to the bigs” moment as Boston got him for six runs over 4.2 innings. So redemption will be on the cards for Schwellenbach in this one.
RHP Brayan Bello (5 GS, 27.0 IP, 14.8 K%, 12.2 BB%, 2.33 ERA, 55 ERA-, 5.54 FIP, 136 FIP-, -0.1 fWAR)
Brayan Bello’s start to the 2025 season is a case example of how ERA doesn’t tell the whole story. If you’re just looking at his ERA and his ERA-, you’d expect him to be having a fantastic season. Instead, his underlying statistics explain why he’s stuck in negative-WAR territory despite having a sparkling ERA. His xERA is in the 16th percentile, his expected Batting Average against is in the 15th percentile, he’s not missing bats on a consistent basis and he’s also giving out walks at a pretty high rate.
What Bello has been able to do is avoid getting hit hard while inducing a ton of grounders. With that being said, he has given up at least one homer in all but one of his five starts so far this season, so it’s clear that he could get hit hard if the opportunity presents itself. Still, the Braves will have to find a way to avoid falling into the vortex in order to do some damage against Bello.