Lets see who’s dealin’ today.
It seems like Spencer Schwellenbach pitches a lot on Sunday.
The very-nearly-25-year old had a solid outing his last time out. He didn’t miss many bats, but other than a rough inning, he was able to give the Braves 7 innings and a shot to win. And honestly, that’s been about what he’s done for Atlanta so far – not missing many bats but still putting up quality appearances.
The not missing bats thing gets me, so I went to look a little deeper.
You can see his Whiff% off to the right. Most of his pitches this year are actually getting a higher percentage of whiffs with the exception of the curveball and the splitter. Unfortunately as you can see, those were the pitches he was downright destroying the league with last season, and while they are still getting whiffs this year, a 10-point drop is a lot.
Looking at those pitches (light blue is the curve, and teal is the splitter).
The curve doesn’t seem to be getting quite the same drop, but one of the things that sticks out to me is how tight everything is in 2024 and how erratic it looks in 2025. And that might be part of it – when you’re not sure exactly how much it’s going to break, it’s hard to know where to throw it to get your desired result.
Because he’s not throwing any less hard.
And the Stuff metrics like his pitches.
But the strikeouts haven’t been there. One aspect might be that the league has simply adjusted to him, and instead of missing, they are just slamming it into the ground. Or it might be that he’s having some trouble with consistency. Or both, I guess.
Dylan Cease, however, does not have any trouble missing bats, and he’s pitching about as well as ever, with the exception of giving up a few more dingers. His 4.50 ERA might not lead you think so, but the peripherals and more in-depth metrics say he’s about a run or so better than that. His Statcast isn’t glowing, but you’re still looking firmly at a #2 starter.
While Cease gets a lot whiffs, he is a pretty straightforward in terms of repertoire. He throws a slider nearly 50% of the time and a four-seamer basically 40% of the time. And there’s a few other pitches that he seems to add in for giggles. It just works for him.
But hopefully not today. The Atlanta Braves really need a win and to get back to .500.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Sunday, May 25th, 4:10 p.m. EDT
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
TV: FanDuel Sports South, Southeast, MLB Network (only out-of-market)
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan / 1600/1460/1130 AM La Mejor