Let’s see if they can provide a 24-Garrett gold performance.
I’ve never been a huge Bryce Elder fan, but let’s see if we can give him another chance.
Elder has never been a strikeout pitcher, and he’s routinely been below the league average in terms of strikeout rate. That hasn’t changed so far this season. He’s also been around but a little better than league-average in terms of walks, and that hasn’t changed this season, either. And he gets a ton of ground balls, which hasn’t changed either this season. When you actually look at his xFIP, it says he’s pitching like a 3.81 ERA pitcher, and that’s pretty good.
Statcast doesn’t really agree, though.
And the Stuff+ metrics don’t either.
The just-turned-26-year old pitcher is a good example of the limits of something like xFIP. xFIP assumes a 10.6% HR/FB rate, but Elder has always been given up home runs more often than that. While he doesn’t give up a ton of fly balls, those fly balls tend to get hit hard. And Statcast and Stuff+ bear that out. Oh well, hopefully today’s matchup isn’t …
Garret Crochet. Oh boy.
Crochet comes into the game with a 2.04 ERA, and while the metrics don’t quite back that up, he currently has the 6th most fWAR among pitchers along with the 8th best xFIP. The young left-hander is actually a little younger than Elder, and he’s significantly better, netting out as one of the true aces in the game as long as he’s healthy.
Statcast is a little less bullish on him, but there’s still a lot of red.
Crochet really just likes to throw hard, and his primary three pitches are different versions of fastballs with a four-seamer (42%), cutter (29%, and sinker (13%). He has a sweeper and a change, but that makes up about 15-16% of what he throws. The two pitches, however, often operate as put-away pitches and get a lot of whiffs. Atlanta Braves hitters need to be looking hard early in the count because, once they get to two strikes, Crochet’s arsenal really opens up.
It might help to just get to him early. We don’t really want one of the better pitchers in the game to settle in, so let’s get back to that first inning magic we had once-upon-a-time.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Sunday, June 1st, 1:35 p.m. EDT
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
TV: FanDuel Sports South, Southeast, MLB Network (only out-of-market)
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan / 1600/1460/1130 AM La Mejor