The Braves will be avoiding Paul Skenes in this series but that doesn’t mean it’ll be a walk in the park for Atlanta in Pittsburgh, either.
Right out of the gate, the first good news that the Atlanta Braves are getting when it comes to this series in Pittsburgh is that they won’t have to deal with Paul Skenes. Not only that, but the Braves are also going to miss out on Mitch Keller as well. Now granted, the Pirates are only 5-11 in games where either Skenes or Keller start — which makes them 7-15 in all other games. Still, you don’t want to see those guys if you have the option of seeing basically anybody else on the mound for Pittsburgh — which is the opportunity that the Braves will have this weekend.
Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has collectively put up an ERA of 4.31 and a FIP of 4.01 There’s not a ton of variation between their rotation and their bullpen when it comes to this either — both units are floating around 100 in terms of their ERA- and FIP-, which come out to 102 and 100, respectively, for Pittsburgh’s pitching staff as a whole. So basically, the Pirates have a somewhat perfectly average pitching staff when you take the whole crew into consideration.
The thing that’s been holding the Pirates back has been their offense. Aside from Oneil Cruz continuing to get better, Joey Bart delivering production and Andrew McCutchen being Andrew McCutchen, there’s not a lot going on here for the Pirates, like, at all. Ke’Bryan Hayes has essentially become a glove-first type of player and other players like Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Emmanuel Valdez aren’t exactly going to bring the boom with their bats either. Bryan Reynolds has been pretty disappointing so far and Adam Fraizier is what he is at this point in his career. To be quite honest with y’all, it would be very disappointing if the Braves were to get blown up by the Pirates at any point in this series.
Friday, May 9, 6:40 p.m. ET (FanDuel Sports Network South/Southeast)
RHP Bryce Elder (6 GS 32.0 IP, 15.9 K%, 8.7 BB%, 5.06 ERA, 121 ERA-, 5.29 FIP, 134 FIP-, -0.2 fWAR)
Elder just keeps on plugging along and eating innings while not doing anything too spectacular on the mound. With that being said, his last outing against the Dodgers was about as solid as you can expect from Elder against an opponent the quality of Los Angeles. Elder went five innings and struck out six while only giving up two runs on four hits and two walks. That’s not spectacular at all but it was enough to keep the Braves within striking distance on their way to a series-salvaging win against LA. That’s all you can ask of from Bryce Elder at this point: Just keep the Braves in the game while you’re out there.
This’ll be Elder’s first time seeing the Pirates since his magical 2023 season. Elder went seven innings and only gave up two runs on four hits and one walk with nine strikeouts back when that game too place. With that being said, the only two likely holdovers from that game are Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes, so that may not give us a ton of information as to what’s going to happen on Friday night.
LHP Bailey Falter (7 GS, 37.1 IP, 18.5 K%, 7.3 BB%, 5.06 ERA, 120 ERA-, 4.66 FIP, 115 FIP-, 0.2 fWAR)
Bailey Falter has already had a handful of starts this season where he has, well, faltered. He’s had four starts so far where he’s given up at least three runs and in three of those four starts, he gave up at least five runs and in two of those starts, he gave up seven runs. Both of those seven-run outings came against last season’s World Series duo so maybe that’s understandable? With that being said the other two starts were against the Angels and Reds, so it’s not like he’s only prone to getting blown up by really good teams, so there’s that.
With that being said, the Braves certainly shouldn’t take him lightly. Just last season, Falter went five innings while only giving up one run against the Braves on their way to a 4-2 win. In fact, the Pirates won both games that Falter started against Atlanta last season, so there’s that.
Saturday, May 10, 4:05 p.m. ET (FanDuel Sports South/Southeast)
RHP AJ Smith-Shawver (5 GS, 27.0 IP, 23.7 K%, 11.4 BB%, 3.00 ERA, 72 ERA-, 3.99 FIP, 102 FIP-, 0.3 fWAR)
It all came together for AJ Smith-Shawver in a way that it hadn’t clicked for him so far during his career. While it may not have been the most spectacular eight-inning outing that you’ll see from a pitcher in any given start, I don’t think the Braves (or any baseball team, really) would ever complain about getting eight innings of shutout ball with only one hit allowed from their starter. That’s exactly what Smith-Shawver delivered and clearly the Braves will be hoping that Smith-Shawver can deliver something even remotely close to what he did in his last outing.
LHP Andrew Heaney (7 GS, 39.2 IP, 21.0 K%, 8.0 BB%, 3.18 ERA, 75 ERA-, 3.84 FIP, 96 FIP-, 0.6 fWAR)
Up until the past couple of weeks, Andrew Heaney had been busy making it happen on the mound for the Pirates. Heaney had an ERA of 1.72 and a FIP of 2.31 over his first 31.1 innings of the season. His only blemish was a tough outing against Cincinnati where he gave up four runs over six innings but other than that, he was nearly untouchable. Things have changed over his most recent two starts. He’s failed to make it through five innings and he’s given up four runs in both of his most recent starts against the Cubs and Padres, respectively.
Heaney has a very solid four-seamer and changeup and when he’s leaned on that, he’s found success. His slider has been getting pummeled lately, though. Opposing batters are hitting .333 against his slider so far this season, with an xBA of .267, to boot. Maybe the Braves can get him in trouble if he throws some more hangers this time around.
Sunday, May 11, 1:35 p.m. ET (FanDuel Sports South/Southeast, MLB Network)
RHP Chris Sale (8 GS, 42.0 IP, 30.3 K%, 5.9 BB%, 4.07 ERA, 98 ERA-, 3.06 FIP, 79 FIP-, 1.0 fWAR)
It all finally came together for Chris Sale, as he had another strong outing again. He made it into the seventh inning with ten strikeouts and just two walks to his name and zero runs given up. He didn’t factor into the decision but the Braves did eventually win the game, which clearly delighted Sale as a good start of his finally coincided with the Braves winning. Sale appears to have finally found his groove and that could be bad news for a Pirates lineup that has certainly been scuffling here in 2025.
Sale last saw the Pirates in May of last year and it didn’t go well for Pittsburgh in that one. Sale went seven innings and struck out eight batters while only giving up one run as the Braves rolled to an 8-1 win. Yeah, more of that, please.
RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (7 GS, 30.2 IP, 17.1 K%, 7.1 BB%, 6.16 ERA, 146 ERA-, 4.31 FIP, 107 FIP-, 0.3 fWAR)
Carmen Mlodzinski will be heading into this one as the clear underdog in this particular matchup, as he hasn’t been able to really deliver a dominant performance at any point. He did give up one run against the Cardinals back on April 7 but he only went five innings in that one. In fact, five innings is the longest he’s gone in any given game, as he has yet to record an out in the sixth inning or beyond in any of his starts so far in his first full season as a starter.
Mlodzinski has an impressive arsenal of five pitches with a cutter that he will very rarely throw but other than the sweeper, he doesn’t really throw any of his pitches super effectively. He doesn’t walk a ton of batters but he’s not striking out everybody, either. We’ll see if the Braves can figure out a way to punish him in their effort to give Sale some run spport in this one.