The need for a turnaround will continue until the turnaround actually happens
The Atlanta Braves went 14-16 through April, but they still have a chance, albeit not a particularly huge one, to finish May with more wins than losses. To do so, they’ll have to take the first two games of the weekend set with the Red Sox, something that’s not exactly come easy for the Braves lately. The Braves had a nice week earlier in the month, going 5-2 against the Nationals and Red Sox, but have gone just 2-6 since, undoing all that good work and digging a deeper hole for themselves as far as playoff relevance goes. Part of that terrible span involved multiple baserunning miscues, continued whiplash on the offensive approach side of things, and the usual pitching management snafus.
The Red Sox, meanwhile, have also had a bummer of a time since they played the Braves two weekends ago. After losing that series with the Braves, they bounced back to take two of three from the Mets, but then split a series with the Orioles before getting swept by the Brewers. As a result, they’re currently 27-31 and in the midst of a five-game losing streak, with their last two losses each coming on walkoffs.
For the season, the Red Sox are seventh in position player value (12th in wRC+, fourth in defensive value) and 12th in pitching value. In May, they’re tenth and 17th, respectively. They actually have a better claim to have a better record than the Braves do right now — despite a worse actual record, they should be 33-25 by BaseRuns; their six-game underperformance is the biggest in baseball (Braves are at -2). That said, they just haven’t been able to do anything of particular value in May, dropping all three of their Garrett Crochet starts, splitting with the Orioles despite outscoring them 27-17 in a four-game set, you get the idea.
Friday, May 30, 2025 (7:15 pm EDT, Apple TV+)
Lucas Giolito (5 GS, 27 1⁄3 IP, 126 ERA-, 114 FIP-, 96 xFIP-)
The Braves obliterated Giolito a couple of weeks ago, hitting three homers and dealing him his worst start of the year by far… but lost the game anyway on a Rafael Devers walkoff homer. He bounced back by dominating the Orioles… only for the Red Sox to drop that one by a 2-1 score. Giolito’s had five starts now after getting started late — two had teams hit multiple homers off him, and he’s been quite good in the other three. Hopefully the Braves can repeat what they did against him in Boston, just without the crushing loss at the end part.
Grant Holmes (11 G, 10 GS, 58 2⁄3 IP, 90 ERA-, 124 FIP-, 100 xFIP-)
Like Giolito, Holmes has some HR/FB problems so far. Unlike Giolito, he’s managed to avoid getting runs dumped on him otherwise, despite not really pitching all that well. It’s been a story of inconsistency for Holmes: he has five starts with an FIP- above 120 and three with an xFIP- above 120, but also has four with an FIP- and xFIP- below 87. Some guys manage average marks by being average; Holmes has managed it by being either really bad or quite good in roughly equal measure.
He was bad against the Red Sox when he dueled Giolito earlier, with a 5/4 K/BB ratio and a homer allowed in six innings, but wasn’t involved as the bullpen blew the game late. He then dominated the Padres with a 6/1 K/BB ratio in seven innings. If he and the Braves could only figure out how to get only the good starts from him…
Saturday, May 31, 2025 (4:10 pm EDT, FanDuel South / Southeast)
Walker Buehler (8 GS, 41 IP, 95 ERA-, 110 FIP-, 96 xFIP-)
The Braves missed Buehler earlier in the month, as he missed about three weeks with shoulder concerns. He returned and has been fairly rough since (as well as in the start that ended up shelving him) — he has a 10/5 K/BB ratio over 13 1⁄3 innings in his last three outings, compared to a 26/8 K/BB ratio in 27 2⁄3 innings in the five tries prior. Buehler has been a bit like Holmes in that his numbers are fine overall, a little homer-heavy, but has mixed a handful of dominant outings with some pretty crappy ones.
Spencer Schwellenbach (11 GS, 68 1⁄3 IP, 83 ERA-, 94 FIP-, 81 xFIP-)
Schwellenbach has pitched phenomenally in his sophomore season, but those pesky homers are bugging him. He’s given up at least one in three straight starts, and has just four homerless starts out of 11 this season. He had an amazing, nearly career-best 0.75 xFIP last time out against the Padres, but gave up two homers to lefty batters the third time through, and that was that, as the Braves ate a loss in a game in which Schwellenbach racked up an 11/0 K/BB ratio.
Schwellenbach, though, did not have a great time against the Red Sox. He lasted seven frames, but had just a 3/1 K/BB ratio and gave up a grand slam to Devers. Still, he just kept plugging away after and somehow survived with that being the only damage against him as the Braves won anyway.
Sunday, June 1, 2025 (1:35 pm EDT, FanDuel South / Southeast, MLB Network)
Garrett Crochet (12 GS, 75 IP, 49 ERA-, 65 FIP-, 71 xFIP-)
The Braves will start June with what could be an exciting pitching matchup, but unfortunately for them, that means they’ll have to deal with Garrett Crochet again. Crochet dominated them a few starts ago, with an 8/0 K/BB ratio… but the Braves tagged him for two homers early and then added a few more runs after he departed to win, 4-2. He’s really dominated everyone, with just one bad start by xFIP and a couple of other mediocre ones by FIP. When he doesn’t give up the stray homer, he’s pretty much a monster.
Spencer Strider (3 GS, 14 IP, 109 ERA-, 126 FIP-, 121 xFIP-)
Strider is still rounding into form, and it’s weird to type his line with some pretty gross numbers. He hasn’t had a good start yet, though he was better against the Phillies, finishing with a 7/4 K/BB ratio in 4 2⁄3 innings. His line was marred by staying in to face them a third time and giving up two walks before departing; a 7/2 K/BB ratio would’ve looked a lot more like the Strider of yore, but he didn’t get there.