Charlie Morton could use a bounceback. The Braves could use a series win.
On Sunday afternoon, the Braves will get a chance to do something they’ve failed to achieve over the last week-plus: win a series against a subpar team. They failed to do so against the Pirates, and then dropped three of four to the Nationals. They had a great chance and offensively, did everything they could, to take the series against Oakland yesterday, but couldn’t manage to do so due to Chris Sale’s awful day and the fact that despite out-xwOBAing the Athletics by about .130, they still lost a two-run game, becoming the first team this season to hit eight or more barrels and lose.
To secure the win, the Braves will be relying on Charlie Morton to have something resembling a bounceback start, or really, a start where he isn’t plagued with the same “not winning baseball games” thing that’s afflicted the team recently. In his last outing, Morton had a 7/2 K/BB ratio against the Nationals, good for a 2.97 xFIP. But, he also gave up a homer (4.03) FIP, and more saliently to the Braves’ fortunes, got BABIPed like he owed the Baseball Gods money (.611 BABIP-against), leading to him getting charged with eight runs in 5 2⁄3 innings, and a blowout loss.
After a very nice stretch of five starts from mid-April to mid-May where he never walked more than two in a game and had a combined 30/7 K/BB ratio, Morton’s control has wavered a fair bit recently. He had a 4/3 K/BB ratio in just three innings against the Cubs on May 15 in what was his worst start of the year so far, a bounceback 8/4 K/BB ratio against those same Cubbies one start later, and then his BABIP-marred affair against the Nationals. Morton’s overall line of a 105 ERA-, 101 FIP-, and 95 xFIP- is just fine, very typical mid-rotation starter-ness, but the Braves seemingly find themselves less in need of “just fine” and more in need of “almost everything needs to go perfect to win because if it doesn’t, it’ll somehow be contorted into us losing.” So, here’s hoping that Morton reins in the free passes and has a good outing… or if he doesn’t, that at least the Baseball Gods give him a pat on the head for enduring what he did in his last start.
The Athletics went into this series not knowing who would be starting today’s game, and it turns out that it’s going to be Luis Medina, who will be activated from his rehab assignment to make his 2024 debut. Medina was a rookie last year and had an innings eat-y campaign, tossing 109 2⁄3 frames over 17 starts and six relief appearances with a combined 133 ERA-, 114 FIP-, and 111 xFIP-, essentially fourth/fifth starter territory. Once projected as a high-leverage relief arm due to a high-octane fastball with good shape, Medina’s pitch mix made it easy for Oakland to slide him into a starting role when they needed someone to cover innings during their worst-in-ages pitching travails last year.
Medina’s breaking pitches and four-seamer have nice shape, and while he’s had massive walk problems basically his entire career, he actually can throw his entire arsenal for a strike. His issue seems to be more that the stuff, especially his fastballs, is often too meaty to get away with — especially a sinker that it really looks like he should just stop throwing at this point. He’s returning from a knee injury, so at least he and Oakland don’t need to worry about persistent arm woes at this point.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Sunday, June 2, 1:35 p.m. ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia
TV: Bally Sports Southeast
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan