Spencer Strider will try to get back on a roll after a meh outing last time out
For a series-opening July 4 game between two teams that are basically irrelevant to the broader baseball landscape for 2025 at this point, boy, there’s a lot of narrative to wade through here. Let’s get the biggest one out of the way, first: when the Orioles come to Atlanta for this weekend set, it’ll be a matchup of the two biggest disappointments of the 2025 season so far.
The Orioles weren’t necessarily projected to be dominant — their preseason playoff odds were below 50 percent — but they were coming off two consecutive playoff berths and three straight winning seasons, with the ideal situation of a bunch of good young players all on the roster at the same time. But, they imploded: 21-36 through May, such that even a 16-13 run since hasn’t really mattered much. They’re 22nd in position player fWAR, 27th in pitching fWAR, 18th in xwOBA, 26th in xwOBA-against, and 19th in xFIP-. They are outperforming their BaseRuns, record-wise, by four games. Their ineptitude has already gotten one manager fired. It’s been pretty terrible, and even though they both hit and pitched quite well in June, it already feels like (and probably is) too little, too late.
There are two teams who have shed more in projected point estimate end-of-season wins than the Orioles so far — one is the Rockies (of course), and one is, well, the Braves. The Braves are also the only team to have tumbled out of the playoff picture harder than the Orioles. The story for the Braves is a little different, since the Braves are more mediocre than bad: 15th in position player fWAR, 17th in pitching fWAR, and also accursed by a bunch of things that don’t change the fact that this season has been a faceplant, but are also things the Braves can’t really do all that much about. (The Braves are -5 by BaseRuns, which, yeah — and BaseRuns uses outputs.)
Anyway, those were two depressing paragraphs. Onto the pitching matchup. Charlie Morton will be returning to Atlanta for the first time since moving on from his second stint with the Braves. It hasn’t been a particularly happy move for the veteran right-hander to Baltimore, though — he has a 141 ERA-, 108 FIP-, and 100 xFIP- so far this season. That FIP- and xFIP- are consistent with what the Braves got out of Morton last season (112 and 98, respectively); the Braves opted not to go in on that again for $15 million, but the Orioles did, and, well, that deal doesn’t look like it’s going to turn out that well by the end of the year.
Morton got off to a terrible start, then was banished to the bullpen for about three weeks, but has since returned to the rotation, where he’s been much better. He’s at 73/60/79 over his last six starts since coming back into a regular starting role, and though that has included some clunkers, it’s also included three straight-up dominant outings. He’s been touched for just one homer in that stretch, and none in his last five starts, after allowing nine in 41 innings prior. If the Braves do get dominated by Morton tonight, it could be more a continuation of the roll he’s been on than anything else.
In a bizarre-but-somehow-not-unexpected-given-the-karmic-debt-this-team-apparently-owes-to-the-universe turn, the only obvious member of the Braves’ rotation left standing is the guy going tonight, Spencer Strider, who wasn’t even in the rotation to start the year as he worked his way back from injury. (The other three nominal members of the rotation include Grant Holmes, who may still be miscast as a “starter,” Bryce Elder, who can either function by walking guys or giving up massive homers every time out, but not avoid both and therefore shouldn’t be facing more than a handful of hitters until he gets that resolved, and Didier Fuentes, who may not even stick on the roster this year.) Strider’s seasonal line is getting towards “good” territory: 94/91/93, helped by a dominant stretch he put together where he had a 29/6 K/BB ratio across two starts against the Mets and one against the Rockies. However, he stumbled a bit in his most recent outing with just a 4/3 K/BB ratio against the Phillies, though he did complete seven frames for the first time this year.
Strider has faced the Orioles once in his career, back in 2023, where he had a 10/0 K/BB ratio in five innings and set up an exciting comeback win on a pinch-hit homer from Kevin Pillar. Ah, those were the days.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Friday, July 4, 7:15 p.m. EDT
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
TV: FanDuel Sports South / Southeast, Gray TV, MLB Network (out-of-market only)
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan, La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM