I doubt I’ll ever check back in on this post
Back before the season started, I “predicted” that there would be repeat Cy Young Award winners in both leagues. The chances of that are minuscule, but I wouldn’t really believe in any other singular pick in either league, either.
Up to a point, it was so far, so good. Tarik Skubal leads all pitchers in fWAR. The NL is more complicated, with Paul Skenes, Logan Webb, and Zack Wheeler well ahead of the pack, and then a second tier with MacKenzie Gore, Jesus Luzardo, Chris Sale, Dylan Cease, and even Mitch Keller. But, Sale was within striking distance, especially considering he was tied with Webb and Skenes for the NL lead in fWAR in June, and actually had slightly more than both in May.
That’s all sort of moot now, though, given his rib injury. The Braves haven’t given a prognosis, because per their own words, they need to let the rib fracture heal a bit before they can figure out a path forward. But, unless the fracture heals very soon and the prognosis is “take a week off and then get back out there,” he’s going to have to ramp back up again, and we’re looking at a lengthy absence that basically wrecks, well, a lot of things. The central estimate appears to be that he’ll miss about 40 percent of the remaining season, i.e., about five weeks, but that’s not even founded in anything.
So, who’s going to lead the rotation in fWAR the rest of the way, and possibly even overtake Sale for the team lead? Choose your fighter:
- Spencer Schwellenbach has an 85 FIP- and a 74 xFIP-. He’s projected to rack up 1.8 fWAR the rest of the way, which is basically identical to the pace he’s managed so far (1.8 fWAR in 96 2⁄3 innings, compared to 98 future innings projected).
- Spencer Strider has a 96 FIP- and 91 xFIP- right now, but has been much better as he’s regained velocity and figured some stuff out about his somewhat changed identity over his last few starts. He’s only at 0.6 fWAR right now, but is projected for 2.2 the rest of the way over 88 innings.
- Grant Holmes is now firmly in “mein gott the HR/FB” territory, with a 112 FIP- but a 90 xFIP-. He’s only projected for 1.0 fWAR the rest of the way, though some of that assumes he’ll pitch in relief a bit more going forward, which seems super-unlikely now given how stubborn the Braves are and the fact that Sale is down.
- Bryce Elder is just… he’s Grant Holmes but somehow sadder, with a 117 FIP- and a 91 xFIP-. His HR/FB is over 20 percent. He should probably stop hanging pitches, but maybe the universe can give him a break when he does hang one, you know? He’s projected for 0.8 fWAR as a swingman going forward, which, again, they won’t even pull him when there’s a chance to win a close game, why would they use him in relief? Don’t take Elder unless you just really hate Holmes, guys.
- I was not at all impressed with Didier Fuentes in terms of what he actually did in his MLB debut. There’s a path to some good stuff there with some tweaks, but I’d like to see him miss a lot more bats. Still, if anything is going to save the Braves and their moribund season, it would have to be something like “20-year-old rookie dominates every single game he’s in for the rest of the year.”
The floor is yours. I mean I guess the Braves could trade for a starter, but like… I don’t know that that’s really gonna help or win this question, either.
Daily Notes
Record: 35-41
Yesterday’s wOBA and xwOBA: .251 / .280 (Season rank: 17th / 12th)
Yesterday’s opponent wOBA and xwOBA: .397 / .402 (Season rank: 10th / 10th)
Yesterday’s homers: 0
Yesterday’s homers allowed: 1
Record when out-xwOBAing: 24-16 (League: 841-309)
Record when out-xwOBAed: 11-25 (League: 309-841)
Record when out-wOBAing: 30-7 (League: 968-185)
Record when out-wOBAed: 5-34 (League: 185-968)
Record when outhomering: 19-7 (League: 630-177)
Record when outhomered: 6-21 (League: 177-630)