Joey is avoiding the force that’s pulling his fastball into the middle-middle zone, and I’m trying not to love it
Look at the guy pitching in this video. The guy that murdering the Cardinals, has a career 5.71/4.60/4.91 line in 246.2 innings. The guy that has hitters chasing breaking pitches out of the zone, walks 4.2 hitters per nine innings in the his career. The guy that fell out of the rotation for a Detroit Tigers team that finished with 78 wins, also fell into the injury-plagued rotation of the stalling Atlanta Braves. Is this water finding its level, or is his play for the Braves a mirage?
It’s really quite good and head scratching at the same time. This is the guy that was drafted 40th overall by the Braves in 2016, only to be jettisoned by the Braves in 2019 for a couple of years of righty reliever Shane Greene, then designated for assignment three times by the Tigers, Pirates, and the Twins. He is the one carving up the Cardinals, and acquitting himself just fine in the his start versus the Yankees last Saturday. He’s the guy with a 6.88/5.21/5.36 line in 34 innings in 2025 before coming to Atlanta, and a 0.00/1.66/2.73 line in 7 innings in two Braves appearances? Yes, exactly, and also no, and a little of both. It’s complicated.
This is his cutter heatmap with Pittsburgh and Minnesota versus his cutter with the Braves. Before, he was absolutely filling up the zone with the cutter that is rolling in at 86.7 MPH. Ask the Braves from the 2023 playoffs how running mid-80s pitches in the middle of the zone worked out. It wasn’t working out for Joey either to the tune of an .859 OPS against. This newer iteration is much better. The spin rate is up 125 RPM to 2609 RPMs, and the whiff rate is an astounding 46.4 percent. He’s had a fastball-cutter-curveball arsenal, only now he’s throwing the cutter first at 49.6%, which is up from 33.4% before. It’s closer to a cutter-fastball mix now with an occasional curveball. Speaking of the curveball.
He’s keeping the curveball below the zone now and getting lots of whiffs and ground balls. The only single was from Paul Goldschimdt, who managed to strike the ball at 67.7 EV on a soft line that found a hole. You can definitely live with that.
What the Braves can’t live with, and the Tigers definitely couldn’t, was the production and the location of the fastball that got him removed from the rotation.
This is a 1.133 OPS against nightmare of a 94-MPH fastball centered right where they make the meatballs. This is the main cause of what got him demoted to the bullpen and ultimately designated for assignment. But not before they tried to correct the fastball over the offseason. He would have pretty good success in the bullpen role for the first couple of months, as catalogued by Chris McCosky of the The Detroit News.
They also identified why his 94-mph fastball was so hittable…. The difference-maker has been his renovated four-seamer. Not so much because it’s been an overpowering pitch, but because his ability to locate it and use it at the top of the strike zone is setting up his three secondary pitches. Wentz this offseason raised the axis point on his fastball and that created four extra inches of vertical break. Which resulted not only in more ride through the strike zone, it created vertical separation between his fastball and secondary pitches. The result: He’s not throwing dead-zone fastballs like he was last season. The numbers show a very different pitcher — 30% hard-hit rate, .200/.302/.236 opponent slash line, 47% ground ball rate, 31% chase rate, 30% whiff rate.
His control and his performance perked up, but ultimately was unable to use it effectively in a relief role for very long.
There’s that tractor beam pulling the fastball right into the middle-middle range from earlier in the year. He’s pulled out of it for the Braves. The fastball is up and in to righties and away from lefties.
I figured out years ago that you can’t fall in love with relievers or Quad-A guys. They will ultimately break your heart. The Braves in the mid-2010s also fell for the guys with the plus offerings and no control. They brought back again because he’s somewhat different. His great breaking stuff isn’t worth chasing if he will just throw a meatball. I’m really, really hoping they can keep him from turning back into that Quad-A guy again.