Prospects, they will break your heart. Let’s look at who the Braves drafted recently and the players who were drafted around them by other teams.
I’ll tell you a brief story from my intern year in baseball operations with the Atlanta Braves.
It was … a while ago. But one of the main responsibilities I was warned about was that I was going to have to do all sorts of stuff for the draft (not scouting), and it was going to mean long hours, getting people from airports, directing the caterers, putting together binders, and a variety of other very “intern”-y tasks. I didn’t care, of course, because I also got to be in the room where it all happened.
One of the events leading up to the draft is bringing in players for a workout and interviews ahead of the draft, and I was tasked with picking them up and returning them to the airport. The day began like many in the Atlanta summer – sunny, hot, and humid – but by the time we were finishing up, a late afternoon storm began rolling through. Slight issue – the players all had suitcases and equipment, and it was a walk from the stadium to my car.
As we got up the entrance/exit, it was pouring down rain. We all stood there looking out at the torrential amount precipitation firing down on the parking lot, and without hesitation, I stated firmly, “I’ll go get the car. Just be ready.” I took off running.
This was at Turner Field, and my car was in the media parking lot. Funny thing about the media parking lot on game days (there was a game that night), they put up cones and ropes to segment the parking lot. Forgetting this, I was just flat out running to get to my car before I noticed the ropes and cones. Forgetting that it was raining, I tried to stop and pivot to go around.
I fell and skidded hard, hard enough to rip a hole in my pants and skin my knee. I got up, and ran to my car. Embarrassed, I drove back up to the stadium.
There were 2 people picked in the first round and another picked a couple rounds later waiting, and they, very professionally, came down the stairs, threw everything in the trunk, and got in the car. No one said a word.
Until I did. I (knowingly) commented, “I know you all saw that.” They busted out laughing. Once they ran out of breath, one of them remarked, “The security guard yelled SAFE when you went down.”
I eventually got back, soaking wet with blood that had obviously run down my leg, and the rest of the front office wanted to know what on earth happened. So I got to re-live that story. It’s a good story.
Years have passed since then, and I think back fondly on that time. It was a lot of work, but it was a time filled with unbridled optimism along with being able to see a lot that everyone else doesn’t get to see.
We’re coming up on that time of year again, so I wanted to take a look at the first round picks from the last 10 years. Did the Braves make the right decisions?
For the purpose of this exercise, I am going to look at who Atlanta picked along with the next 5 picks afterward. I’m sure there were better players (generally) picked later, but it gives us a decent idea of what teams thought at the time.
2016
Braves choose Ian Anderson.
The next five – Riley Pint, Corey Ray, AJ Puk, Braxton Garrett, and Cal Quantrill
Yikes. First, I refuse to believe Ian Anderson has been around that long. Second, this draft was cursed. Braxton Garrett might eventually be the best player from this section of the draft if he comes back from injury pitching like he was prior to the injury, but I think we can call this a wash.
2017
Braves choose Kyle Wright.
The next five – Austin Beck, Pavin Smith, Adam Haseley, Keston Hiura, and Jo Adell
I’d probably call this one a win. Pavin Smith has carved out a nice role in a platoon in Arizona, and Jo Adell is trying to figure it out with the Los Angeles Angels. But Wright’s even brief run still is the best out of this group.
2018
Braves choose Carter Stewart.
The next five – Kyler Murray, Grayson Rodriguez, Jordan Groshans, Connor Scott, and Logan Gilbert.
Oof. Logan Gilbert is the real prize here, and Grayson Rodriguez is still a potential nice get. But Stewart never came to Atlanta, and the Braves had to make another selection the following year.
2019
Braves choose Shea Langeliers.
The next five – Hunter Bishop, Alek Manoah, Brett Baty, Keoni Cavaco, and Bryson Stott.
Braves choose Braden Shewmake.
The next five – Greg Jones, Mike Toglia, Daniel Espino, Kody Hoese, and Blake Walston.
Compensation for Stewart refusing to sign, Atlanta chose Shane Langeliers. He’s been pretty good, and it’s a competition between him and Stott for the best pick at this point. Stott had one awesome year along with some meh years surrounding it to give him more value. Baty hasn’t really established himself yet, but there’s some potential.
Shewmake … was not a great pick, but as you can see, no one else in this section was either.
2020
Braves choose Jared Shuster.
The next five – Tyler Soderstrom, Aaron Sabato, Austin Wells, Bobby Miller, and Jordan Westburg
An intriguing group, and Atlanta took the worst one. Shuster is basically what I affectionately call Tom Glavine Syndrome. The organization is like always looking for the next Tom Glavine, and it … just needs to stop. Soderstrom, Wells, and Westburg are off to quality starts to their MLB careers. Miller was … and then I don’t know what happened.
2021
Braves choose Ryan Cusick.
The next five – Max Muncy, Chase Petty, Jackson Merrill, Carson Williams, and Maddux Bruns.
Jackson Merrill is the real prize here. Muncy, Williams, and Petty still have some potential. Cusick probably isn’t anything other than an up-and-down-often-DFA’d reliever.
2022
Braves choose Owen Murphy.
The next five – Cole Young, Connor Hjerpe, Brandon Barriera, Mikey Romero, and Spencer Jones.
Cole Young is the one with the prospect pedigree and has made his debut. Spencer Jones has a bit of a pedigree. Owen Murphy has been doing a real nice job in High-A. Young was probably the best pick here, but there’s still time here.
2023
The Braves choose Hurston Waldrep.
The next five – Dillon Head, George Lombard Jr., Aidan Miller, Brice Matthews, and Jonny Farmelo
Woo. Lots of prospect firepower here. Waldrep has debuted, but he hasn’t been able to establish himself. Everyone else, with the exception of Dillon Head, is a top 100 prospect with several that are probably top 50 or better, and Head has some potential as well. Waldrep still has talent and possibilities, but the others are shinier, for what that’s worth.
2024
The Braves select Cam Caminiti.
The next five – Kash Mayfield, Ben Hess, Dante Nori, Walter Janek, and Slade Caldwell
A healthy Caminiti is off to a good start with Mayfield and Caldwell also establishing themselves as quality prospects. We’ll see here.
There’s a lot of meh here, which is predictable given what the draft actually does. A lot of players get drafted. Few actually do anything in the majors.
There are no clear victories here for Atlanta, but they’ve had some solid picks. Despite having a youngish team with talent (let’s not talk about it), it didn’t come from recent first rounds.
Shuster, Shewmake, and Cusick were picks that I wasn’t a huge fan of, but I wouldn’t have done a lot better. I would have chosen Greg Jones, Tyler Soderstrom, and Maddux Bruns.
And no, none of the guys in that car ever became anything, either.