Do you have “The Face”?
(For the first part of this series, click here.)
One of the other weird things I learned about during the intern and draft process initially seemed insane.
Used to hearing discussions about bodies – height, weight, length, muscle – I found another interesting aspect scouts liked to talk about – “The Face”. When I first heard one of them mention, I almost started laughing right in his face. How in the world could someone’s face do anything to determine their baseball futures or talent? There are plenty of ugly baseball players.
But after like 3 scouts separately mentioned it, I had to know, so at lunch one day, I just straight-up asked a table of scouts what that meant. The idea isn’t to judge based on beauty, size, or anything like that. It’s to look at expressions.
I didn’t really understand until I started working with a lot of new associates at the company I work for now, and you can see it when you talk to people. You can see them … engage, I guess is the best word … with what you’re saying. You can see them perceive and react. There are others, however, where the expressions remain blank. It’s not that they are trying to keep up a façade. It’s just blank.
For baseball scouts (and I assume other sports use it, too), they talk to the players, and as a portion of the evaluation, they monitor their expressions. Are they engaging with what they are saying? Does it look like they’re thinking?
Now, does this actually work? Or is it something akin to looking like you’re trying hard, and instead, you’re really just less graceful? I have no idea. But I will say it does generally work with new associates coming into a company.
After our first installment looking at first-rounders (where the talent is more obvious), I tell this story as we look at second-round picks over the last decade (where you have to start looking a little deeper).
2016
The Atlanta Braves choose Joey Wentz.
The next five picks were Nick Lodolo, Kevin Gowdy, Chris Okey, and …
The Braves choose Kyle Muller.
The next five picks were Ben Bowden, Lucas Erceg, Logan Shore, Buddy Reed, and Alec Hansen.
Man, I was in love with this draft. Ian Anderson, Joey Wentz, and Kyle Muller. Here was our Rotation of the Future. Then, the rules of TINSTAAPP (There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect) happened, and none of those guys exactly worked out like we hoped. Out of all of these guys, Lucas Erceg has probably had the best career.
2017
The Braves choose Drew Waters.
The next five picks were Greg Deichmann, Drew Ellis, Spencer Howard, Griffin Canning, and Ryan Vilade.
Another one that broke my heart, I really loved this pick, but Waters hasn’t really done much. Canning is probably the best of the bunch to this point, but it’s not overwhelming.
2018
The Braves choose Greyson Jenista.
The next five picks were Braxton Ashcraft, Griffin Conine, Josh Stowers, Owen White, and Tyler Frank.
I didn’t like this pick when it happened, and I wanted Stowers instead. Turns out, it didn’t matter. Braxton Ashcraft is the gem out of this group as he is making his first foray into the majors as a Top 100 prospect.
2019
The Braves choose Beau Philip.
The next five were John Doxakis, Aaron Schunk, Chase Strumpf, Antoine Kelly, and Tyler Baum.
I’m gonna be completely honest here. I do not remember this at all. I don’t think I have ever heard of this human being. And no one here has really done anything, so I guess it doesn’t matter.
2020
The Braves choose … no one.
Atlanta signed Will Smith, and they lost their second-round pick here. Spencer Strider and Bryce Elder got picked in this draft, though.
2021
The Braves choose Spencer Schwellenbach.
The next five were Zack Gelof, Steve Hajjar, James Wood, Kyle Manzardo, and Lonnie White.
I remember being really interested in Wood here, but he was a real boom-or-bust prospect. Schwellenbach, however, seemed a perfectly reasonable pick as a shortstop/pitcher who would finally specialize in pitching. Those tend to trend well if they were already good. And whaddaya know, he’s turned into a really good pitcher after a year detour due to Tommy John Surgery. James Wood has also turned out really well, and without the injury, there might be a really good discussion here on who’s the best.
2022
The Braves choose JR Ritchie.
The next five picks were Thomas Harrington, Justin Campbell, Jordan Beck, Robbie Snelling, and Dalton Rushing.
The Braves select Cole Phillips.
The next five picks were Tyler Locklear, Brycen Mautz, Josh Kasevich, Drew Thorpe, and Peyton Pallette.
I liked Ritchie here, and he seems to be trending in the right direction. Everyone else here also seem to be pretty solid picks outside of Campbell. None of them have made real impacts in the majors quite yet (you could argue Beck here), but they’re all pretty close or are actively playing the majors. Ritchie isn’t there, but he’s also not out of the running.
I really wanted Pallette with the next pick, but that didn’t come to be. Phillips got traded to Seattle as part of the Jarred Kelenic deal, and with a second TJS, he hasn’t thrown a single professional pitch. Locklear and Thorpe are the potential contributors here.
2023
The Braves choose Drue Hackenberg.
The next five picks were Jake Gelof, Alonzo Tredwell, Andrew Walters, Jackson Baumeister, and Caden Grice.
Coming into the year, Hackenberg was a popular choice to breakout, but … that hasn’t been the case. The rest haven’t exactly started to materialize, either.
2024
The Braves choose Carter Bolton.
The next five picks were Griffin Burkholder, Ivan Luciano, Dylan Dreiling, Tyler Bell, and Chris Lenovas.
Tommy John claims another one, so we’ll have to wait on Bolton. The rest haven’t exactly starred, either.
The second round is basically worse than the first round.
Thanks for that.
So it’s no surprise that this is sort of depressing to look at. Spencer Schwellenbach has been the only helpful one on the field in Atlanta, though a few others have been used in trades. JR Ritchie is still TBD, and Hackenberg and Bolton still have time.
But it’s not an inspiring lot. I wonder what their “faces” look like.