Even as they’ve performed better, it hasn’t come down
The Braves’ pitching has not fared well this year… sorta. Through 44 games, the pitching staff has 2.4 fWAR, good for just 21st in MLB. Among expected contenders, only the Diamondbacks and Orioles have been worse. Yet, the actual pitching done by the staff has been top ten in MLB, courtesy of a 93 xFIP-. The difference? The team has the seventh-highest HR/FB rate against its pitchers. While things are ameliorated somewhat by the fact that the Braves have been fourth-best at avoiding fly balls and are therefore middle of the pack in raw homers per inning allowed, the idea is that the HR/FB they’ve been dinged by shouldn’t be as bad as it is. And yet…
This pattern also hasn’t been some sort of specific-stretch aberration, either. Consider:
- Through April 15: 115 FIP-, 97 xFIP-, 4th-worst HR/9, 2nd-highest HR/FB
- Second half of April: 106 FIP-, 104 xFIP-, 11th-worst HR/9, 11th-highest HR/FB
- First half of May: 86 FIP-, 80 xFIP-, eighth-best HR/9, 11th-highest HR/FB
I picked those three distinctions in part because they show some very different levels of pitching success or failure, but you can see that the HR/FB has persisted towards the higher side of the range, and while the Braves will take an 86 FIP- from their pitching staff all day, chances are it won’t stay that good, so having the HR/FB would be really useful. It just hasn’t happened yet.
Who’s directly suffering from this HR/FB spike? Raisel Iglesias, Dylan Lee, Grant Holmes, and Bryce Elder. Iglesias has run multiple loooong stretches of HR/FB problems before, but his 30 percent right now is comical. Lee’s 22.2 percent rate is similarly dumb; his only elevated HR/FB season before this one was his overall-uneven 2023, but he’s not pitching poorly but for the HR/FB right now. The gopherball issues of Holmes and Elder have also been really impactful to the team, and it’s hard to say they’re unwarranted, but still, would it kill the baseball gods to help those brothers out once in a while the way they seem to help opposing pitchers? The Braves have hit 102 barrels so far this year, of which 41 have been homers (and 35 have been outs). Holmes and Elder have combined to allow 29 barrels, of which 14 have been homers (and only nine have been outs). Those ratios are close enough that it’s not a huge deal, but still, may we have some luck, baseball gods?
Also, you figure Rafael Montero, Daysbel Hernandez, Aaron Bummer, and Pierce Johnson are all eventually going to allow at least one homer this year, so the team will have to fight against that little push upward as well.
Daily Notes
Record: 22-22
Yesterday’s wOBA and xwOBA: .273 / .267 (Season rank: 18th | 17th)
Yesterday’s wOBA and xwOBA allowed: .289 / .304 (Season rank: 12th | 13th)
Yesterday’s homers: 0
Yesterday’s homers allowed: 1
Record when out-xwOBAing: 14-9 (League: 479-167)
Record when out-xwOBAed: 8-13 (League: 167-479)
Record when out-wOBAing: 18-2 (League: 550-98)
Record when out-wOBAed: 4-20 (League: 98-550)
Record when outhomering: 9-3 (League: 338-94)
Record when outhomered: 5-12 (League: 94-338)