I’m not sure I think so, but feel free to argue
For the second time in the span of a week, the Braves toppled the Mets via a big inning that featured, of all things, a bunch of walks.
I’m not sure it’s much of a secret that the Braves are blatantly trying to walk more often than they have in years past. Though the team had a top-ten walk rate in 2019-2021, they fell into the league’s bottom half in 2022-2024. That decrease in walk rate was directly related to an increase in chase rate; the team, in aggregate, basically refused to watch any strikes go by in any year in the 2019-2024 span.
In 2025 as a whole, the Braves now have a top-five walk rate. Mission accomplished, perhaps, if the mission were to draw more walks. How are they getting more walks? Well, it’s actually not by chasing less. It’s not really by doing any specific thing, either — they’re simply just grinding PAs until they walk. The only notable aspect of their performance teamwide that would help them walk is that they take a ton of first pitches relative to other teams. You could also speculate that their high o-contact consists largely of fouls which extend PAs, but I’m not actually sure that’s the case.
Month-to-month, the pattern is even starker. Through April, the Braves had a middling walk rate and weren’t doing anything that concerted to either walk or not walk. This is actually kind of false premise, though, as the issue was that in April we saw a very passive, slap-oriented approach on the road trip, followed by “Ye Olde Braves” for the next few weeks. So things kind of wash out when lumped together. This also applies to later months, to some extent. In May, you saw (on average, in aggregate) a concerted effort from the Braves to chase less. This was also when they got super-passive on first pitches, though to counterbalance it, they seemed to get more aggressive on pitches in the zone. In theory, this should’ve been a positive development, i.e., less chase, more aggression when theoretically ahead in the count, but the Braves had a 96 wRC+ in May, down from 100 through April. The kicker? A much larger and substantially detrimental xwOBA underperformance in May, which wasn’t the case in April. The team’s relative xwOBA rank didn’t budge much (from ninth in April to 11th in May, and it increased slightly in May in raw terms). But, suffice to say, the “theory” of chasing less and getting better pitches wasn’t really working out for the Braves in practice.
That brings us to June, where the Braves have the second-highest walk rate in baseball for the month so far. Again, the only thing they’re really “doing” that’s driving it is just not swinging at first pitches so much, but they’ve also reined in their swinging at strikes too. They’re fishing for walks, to the extent that is even possible or makes sense.
The kicker? I’ll reiterate the above: I don’t think it’s actually worked, unless you define “working” as “drawing more walks.” The Braves have a 91 wRC+ in June, barely outside of the bottom five. Despite that walk rate, they’re 17th in OBP, and they’re a pathetic 27th in slugging, considering the team features both Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson. You know how their xwOBA was around the top ten the prior two months? It’s down to 17th now. Sure, a persistent xwOBA underperformance isn’t helping, but DJ Khaled is cuing up his catchphrase — the Braves, in pursuing walks, have largely played themselves. And I’m not even talking about the part where players struggle to adjust to a new approach, although that’s happening to. It’s more that the bottom line is that they got what they wanted, and it’s just not very good.
Daily Notes
Record: 37-41
Yesterday’s wOBA and xwOBA: .337 / .434 (Season rank: 17th / 11th)
Yesterday’s opponent wOBA and xwOBA: .234 / .225 (Season rank: 10th / 8th)
Yesterday’s homers: 0
Yesterday’s homers allowed: 0
Record when out-xwOBAing: 23-16 (League: 859-315)
Record when out-xwOBAed: 11-25 (League: 315-859)
Record when out-wOBAing: 32-7 (League: 989-188)
Record when out-wOBAed: 5-34 (League: 188-989)
Record when outhomering: 19-7 (League: 642-183)
Record when outhomered: 6-21 (League: 183-642)