Jurickson Profar advances into cleanup spot on July 4

I guess that’s what two homers in two games gets you

I know this is the lineups post and Jurickson Profar is hitting cleanup and all, but today I’m having strong reminiscences about still being relatively new to the Boston area, and going out to some further-out suburb to watch their July fireworks show while checking on this game, where the Braves got out to a five-run lead and ultimately hung on to defeat the Orioles, 5-4, on my phone. That was during 2021, in case you didn’t click the link, and none of us knew the swell of agony that awaited us later that year — in July, with the fireworks going off in the early evening, the Braves’ immediate future still looked bright.

Can’t say the same for right now. An optimist might say it’s at least a blessing avoid a more sudden, wrenching collapse, but I’d rather they just not be afflicted with all sorts of issues, many but not all of their own design, to begin with.

Anyway, here’s the lineup for the actual holiday matchup:

The big news is Profar hitting cleanup, as mentioned. I’m not a huge fan of Ozuna moving down ahead of a bunch of guys, Baldwin aside, who probably won’t do anything with his walks, but it is what it is. Profar’s two homers in two games have given him a 123 wRC+ on the season (he had a dreadful four games pre-suspension). It’s his first time hitting cleanup since June 4 of last year.

It’s kind of weird to do batter-versus-pitcher stuff with Charlie Morton, given that most of these guys were his teammates, rather than his occasional opponents, for years prior to this matchup. Still, what we have is Profar, Matt Olson, and Ozuna each with at least 14 PAs and pretty great batting lines against Morton, while Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Austin Riley have just a handful of PAs against their former teammate. The collective line ends up with a .390 wOBA / .382 xwOBA, which would be neat to see from the team tonight.

The Baltimore lineup looks like this:

There are a few notable things here. First off, it’s Tyler O’Neill’s first game back after missing nearly two months with a shoulder injury; he returns to a 69 wRC+ that’s the result of massive xwOBA underperformance in 93 PAs. The rest of the lineup also has some shuffling — Jordan Westburg doesn’t generally hit second, while Cedric Mullins is hitting ninth after spending much of the year hitting all over the place but not ninth.

The Orioles’ group of young stars-ish doesn’t have a lot of experience against Spencer Strider, with just 11 combined PAs. Tyler O’Neill, who walked against Strider in 2022, is the only guy in this lineup to reach base against Strider — the other ten PAs have featured seven strikeouts among them.