Max Fried’s best start of the season so far was against the Marlins. Can he repeat?
The Atlanta Braves are set to face off against the Miami Marlins for the second game of the series at Truist Park. Max Fried is hoping to get some momentum after struggling for most of the early season, and he will face off against Trevor Rodgers.
Fried has been better than his season 7.71 ERA suggests, although his overall performance has been subpar for his standards. His expected ERA (xERA) of 4.89 is much lower than his actual ERA, and so even if Fried pitched exactly like he has so far, we should see his ERA drop. However, 4.89 would still be his worst xERA since 2017.
Fried has an excellent groundball rate of 60.3 percent, but he is not missing many bats. His Whiff rate of 22.5 percent is in the bottom 32.0 percent of MLB. His 1.33 strikeout to walk ratio so far is the worst of his career. He also has had misfortune in the BABIP arena. For his career, hitters have a BABIP of .301 against him. So far it sits at .375 this season, showing hitters have had some lucky hits. His runners stranded rate (LOB%) has been unlucky too. For his career his rate has been 76.8 percent. This season it has been much lower at 59.6.
Max Fried has already faced the Marlins once this season and it was his best performance of the season. In 6.1 innings Fried only allowed one earned run while giving up four singles, one walk, and struck out four. If Fried can have a repeat performance, the Braves will be in for a likely easy victory.
Of the hitters on the Marlins that have faced Fried in the past, no one has seen him as much as Josh Bell with twenty at bats. Bell has hit .350 with an OPS of .881 against him. Jazz Chisholm has seen his the second most with thirteen at bats in which he has struggled to a .154 average and .599 OPS. No one else has more than nine at bats against Fried.
Trevor Rogers, who is starting for the Marlins, has faced the Braves multiple times in his career. Six different Braves have at least ten at bats against him. Unsurprisingly, Ronald Acuña Jr. has had success against him. Acuña has had eleven at bats, in which he is hitting .455 with one HR and an OPS of 1.480. What may be surprising is that Travis d’Arnaud has had the most success against him. In twelve at bats, he has a .500 average, one HR, and a 1.583 OPS. Ozuna, and Riley, have also homered off Rogers before.
So far this season Rogers has a 3.92 ERA but is giving up 10.5 hits per nine innings. His WHIP of 1.548 could be a good sign for the Braves. However, his xERA of 3.37 shows that Rogers has actually been a bit unlucky this season.
With Rogers being a LHP, we should see Duvall and Fletcher back in the lineup.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Tuesday, April 23, 7:20 p.m. ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia
TV: Bally Sports South
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan