Before the season we did a piece predicting the most likely young Braves to break out as superstars in 2025. Michael Harris II was an easy choice at the time, with everything pointing toward a big year for the young center fielder. The reality has been quite the opposite, however, as Harris has been a black hole in an underwhelming Braves lineup for the entire season.
Michael Harris II Trending in the Wrong Direction
After a quiet offseason, the Braves were clearly counting on Money Mike elevating his offense to give the lineup more length. Instead, a career-long downward trend has reached new lows roughly a third of the way through his fourth big league campaign. After a NL Rookie of the Year season in 2022, where Harris slashed .297/.339/.514 with 19 home runs and 20 steals, his numbers took a dip in 2023 and 2024, partly due to injuries. Fully healthy this year, most were expecting something closer to the rookie year totals. However, the bat has been consistently dreadful, with a career-low .229/.259/.336 and an OPS+ of 66.
Harris hasn’t just regressed. He’s been a complete liability at the plate day in and day out. His -13 batting run value is tied with Andrew Vaughn for the third-worst among all qualified big league hitters. This is certainly concerning for a guy that the Braves committed serious money to and have under contract for at least five more years after this one. So what could explain this spiral from the dynamic fan favorite?
Plate Discipline Hasn’t Improved
Harris has always been a free-swinging, strikeout-prone hitter, but there was some hope that we would see improved swing decisions at this point in his development. That hasn’t been the case whatsoever. The 38.6% chase rate is slightly down from last year, but still in the bottom five percent of MLB. This has predictably resulted in the typical high strikeout rates, and the 4.3% walk rate is still right around his career average.
Despite all the swing and miss in his game, Harris has historically made loud contact when he does connect. However, this year, he hasn’t been much of a threat when putting the ball in play. The Decatur, Georgia, native is currently posting career-low hard hit rates, barrel rates, and exit velocities. In particular, he is having trouble catching up to the fastball, which has been a strength in the past. Harris’ xwOBA against fastballs has dropped from .359 in 2024 to .314 this year, and his xSLG from .472 to .413.
Making Up For It In Other Ways
To his credit, Michael Harris remains a valuable player despite currently offering next to nothing on offense. This is due to his legs and glove, which are the primary reasons he has a positive WAR to this point (0.3). Harris is still an elite defensive center fielder, posting a 97th percentile Outs Above Average of six to this point while seemingly turning in a wild highlight every night.
Michael Harris II adds to his collection of great catches. Grant Holmes’ reaction was fantastic pic.twitter.com/mZo7dQHiU2
— Mark Bowman (@mlbbowman) May 13, 2025
Harris’ elite sprint speed is also a weapon. He is taking advantage of chances when he does reach base, racking up ten steals already to match last year’s total in just over half the amount of games. It’s clear that if Harris ever figures it out at the plate, we could be looking at a five-tool superstar given his special traits in other areas. Unfortunately, that will continue to be a dream for the time being as Braves Country awaits the breakout.
Main Image Credit: © Dale Zanine-Imagn Images
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