Charlie Morton had a bad BABIP game, and then a good BABIP game. Will he have a normal game on Saturday afternoon?
On the season, Atlanta starter Charlie Morton has a perfectly cromulent 95 ERA-, 101 FIP-, and 97 xFIP-. He has 0.7 fWAR in 62 2⁄3 innings, which is basically a dead-average pace for a starting pitcher. He’s been about as generic a mid-rotation arm as you could design. Even his BABIP-against is essentially league average, at .301.
And yet, Morton’s line is just the sum of weird stuff happening to him, over and over, especially lately. Over his last four starts, he hasn’t pitched well (135/116/106), but his lines have been particularly whiplash-inducing. In two starts against the Cubs in May, he ran a BABIP-against above .360 in both outings, with a 4/3 K/BB ratio (bad) in one game but an 8/4 K/BB ratio (much better) in the other. The Braves lost both. Then came his crazy start against the Nationals in Atlanta, where they managed an insane .611 BABIP-against and saddled Morton with eight runs, despite a 7/2 K/BB ratio. The Braves lost that too. And then, most recently, Morton had an ugly 6/5 K/BB ratio — two walks were probably rain-aided, but he also benefited from a badly blown call on a 3-1 pitch that later became a strikeout — but managed to yield a sparkly zero runs to the Athletics thanks to an .091 BABIP-against. In short, I don’t really know what to expect from Morton today, but it’s probably gonna be weird in one way or another.
On the flip side, the Braves will get another crack at MacKenzie Gore, who’s been way better than average so far, but has also been highly inconsistent in the process. Gore’s season line is 88/81/86, which is really good — it’s a top-50 line fWAR-wise and in the top 30 in both FIP- and xFIP-, just limited by Gore’s lack of length — but again, weird stuff abounds.
Gore has already had two starts this season with a negative FIP-, including one against the Braves in Atlanta, where he posted a 10/0 K/BB ratio in 5 1⁄3 innings. He has seven total starts, out of 12 tries, with an FIP- below 80, and an xFIP- below 90. But he’s also been blown up four times if you include homers (an FIP- above 120), and had two really bad starts even if you ignore homers (xFIP- above 140). For example, he followed up his domination of the Braves by posting a horrid 2/4 K/BB ratio, allowing a homer, and getting charged with six runs in 4 1⁄3 innings against the Mets. As such, this is far from an easy matchup for the Braves because the odds are on Gore being great yet again, but there’s still a decent chance he might implode. We’ll just have to see.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Saturday, June 8, 4:05 p.m. ET
Location: Nationals Park, Washington D.C.
TV: Bally Sports Southeast
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan
XM Radio: Ch. 178