Atlanta is not stealing bases again. Is that bad?
We all have recurring nightmares. They’re not always the same, but they usually are in similar locations, feelings, and incidents. Most psychologists think this is the mind trying to resolve certain things, and the belief is that a lot of it is the mind trying to figure out painful experiences and make sense of them.
My recurring dream usually has me running exceptionally slow, and when I was younger, it was usually on a baseball field. I would be playing (usually hitting), and as soon as I would start running, it would be like running with concrete bricks for shoes. I never made it anywhere, and I always got out. It was a frustrating feeling.
The meaning of these dreams isn’t exactly difficult. I was an overweight kid, and I was painfully aware of it, as most kids probably are. It’s a fairly common experience to get made fun of for being different, and being overweight is an easy target. I probably associated this with baseball because it was and is a big part of my life.
At this point in my life, I still have a similar dream from time-to-time. I’m in better shape these days, but the BMI scale still classifies me as overweight. I probably still have some subconscious issues remaining about my weight, but they’re apparently less intense or less often. But on the bright side, it’s actually (in a weird way) kind of fun to play baseball again, even if it’s just in my dreams. I didn’t have much in the way of baseball skill then, and after like 20+ years of not playing, I would imagine I’d suck even worse now.
Atlanta Braves, fortunately, players are faster than I am (surprise), but how are they doing on the basepaths?
In 2023, the rules changed about pickoffs, only allowing two attempts at a baserunner per batter, and stolen bases rapidly escalated. It’s only gotten more intense since then. 3503 bases were stolen in 2023 for an average of .72 per game (the average was .51 in 2022). In 2024, the league 3617 bases for an average of .74 per game. So far in 2025, MLB baserunners have stolen 891, which is good enough for a … .81 per game rate. If that holds, the league will steal around 3915 bases.
3915 bases?!?!
Atlanta won’t really be a big part of that, though. At this point in the year, they rank 22nd in baseball with 23 stolen bases and a rate of .64 per game. It is an improvement on last season, when the team ranked 28th in baseball with 69 (nice), which was a .43 per game clip. Nick Allen (5) and Eli White (2) are part of that as they replace Orlando Arcia and Jarred Kelenic, who … do not steal bases.
This is still a far cry from 2023 when Atlanta stole 132 bases, good for 10th in baseball. They stole … .81 bases per game. So the entire league is currently stealing bases at the rate of the 2023 Atlanta Braves.
The drop in those numbers isn’t difficult to figure out – Ronald Acuna, Jr. Ronnie only played a third of the season in 2024, and he, of course, hasn’t played this season. It remains to be seen how much he’ll steal and how much Atlanta will allow him to steal when he comes back.
Is this bad, though? Like, is it a problem that Atlanta isn’t stealing bases?
Not necessarily. Stealing bases are a bit like looking at RBI for offensive production. It’s not exactly not reflective of what you’re looking for, but it’s also missing some important context. Baserunning also includes taking extra bases on batted balls and avoiding TOOTBLANs. There’s also not forcing it if it’s not a thing they can do, but while the home runs got all of the headlines for the record 2023 season, they’re exceptional baserunning was also a significant factor.
Looking at 2023, the Braves were 6th in baseball in BsR (FanGraphs’ baserunning metric). In 2024, they were 25th.
This isn’t looking good.
But in 2025, they rank 11th despite the low number of stolen bases. We’ll see how much of an aberration/early-season variance that is, and it might depend on Allen and White continuing to get playing time (or at least holding the fort for another month until Ronnie comes back). But I would venture a guess that there’s probably a connection between being able to steal bases and being able to take extra bases on the basepaths. And as the league accelerates its use of stolen bases, we don’t want the Braves left too far behind.
Baserunning is important, and we don’t need any recurring nightmares from 2024.