What lineup changes can we expect when Atlanta’s star RF returns?
Smell that? That leathery smell of a baseball bounding past your car on I-85 after it was crushed out of Coolray Field? That, my friends, is the smell of Ronald Acuña Jr.’s impending return.
This may be the most anticipated week of the Atlanta Braves season since Opening Day. Spencer Strider is set to return today, which should line him up for a two start week that will include his first appearance at Truist Park in over a year. MLB.com’s Mark Bowman has been speculating on a Friday return for Acuña Jr., who is casually slashing .444/.667/1.222 with 2 HR, 6 walks, and 0 strikeouts through the first four games of his rehab assignment. Manager Brian Snitker has said they want to see Acuña play 9 innings in right field before he returns – if I was a betting man, I’d bet on him playing both the Tuesday and Wednesday games for Gwinnett (with 9 innings in RF in at least one of those games), then taking Thursday off before meeting the team in Atlanta for Friday’s series opener vs. San Diego.
Whenever Acuña Jr. returns – whether that’s Friday or a little later on – Brian Snitker and the Braves will have a few decisions to make. Who comes off the 26-man roster? Who loses playing time? How will the lineup be constructed? Let’s take these in order.
Outside of the Braves outstanding catching duo, their bench is pretty uninspiring at the moment. Stuart Fairchild, Luke Williams, and arguably Orlando Arcia are three names that you wouldn’t lose sleep over if you DFA’d them tonight and another team decided to pick them up.
Williams has been through this song and dance before, getting called up to rarely play outside of occasional pinch-running scenarios and then being DFA’d. His calling card is his ability to stand in at every position on the field except pitcher and catcher without embarrassing himself. Fairchild was brought in to help out against LHP after Jurickson Profar was suspended for 80 games, but he’s got a 30 wRC+ vs. lefties and a -59 wRC+ vs. righties in a total of 31 plate appearances. Arcia might be the least useful of the three (at least the other two have speed), but he has reprised his original role of Fun Bench Guy, and given his long tenure with the org and the fact that he seemingly had a starting job on Opening Day, it would surprise this author if he was the one to go.
Given the versatility of Eli White and the likelihood that Arcia remains on the roster as a mascot who can sub in at SS if Allen were to get hurt, I’m guessing Luke Williams gets the boot. Fairchild at least has a previous track record of being useful vs. LHP and has been in the starting lineup a few times, whereas Williams has been used pretty much exclusively as a pinch runner later in games.
When Ronnie is back, CF and RF will be written in pen every night (outside of some occasional off days). That leaves Fairchild, White, and Alex Verdugo to cover left field. How might the playing time shake out between those three?
With how poorly he’s hit, Fairchild is likely to become a pinch-runner only, or perhaps a defensive substitute late in games. That leaves Verdugo and White as your options for left field, where they can either choose to platoon them or choose one as the everyday guy.
Verdugo had a very nice start with Atlanta, posting a 132 wRC+ and .385 OBP in his first 14 games, but he has really cratered as of late and has just a 28 wRC+ in his past 12 games (.191/.240/.213). Overall, that puts him at an 86 wRC+ that closely resembles his 83 wRC+ with New York last season. He hasn’t been much better defensively, unfortunately, as his -2 Fielding Run Value is the worst mark for any Brave this year. On the basepaths, Verdugo offers just 21st percentile sprint speed and actually ranks worst on the team in both BsR and Baserunning Run Value. He does have extreme platoon splits (111 wRC+ vs. RHP, -16 wRC+ vs. LHP in 2025; 110 wRC+ vs. RHP, 77 wRC+ vs. LHP for his career) that could compel the team to get his bat in the lineup vs. righties.
White has been a godsend for Atlanta’s maligned outfield. He’s the only OF on the team with even 5 PA and a wRC+ higher than Verdugo’s 86 (White’s at 114). Like Verdugo, White has cooled significantly after a hot start – he had a 159 wRC+ in his first 56 PA, but has fallen off with just a 72 wRC+ in his past 62 PA. Even when he’s slumping, however, White does provide value with both the glove (+1 FRV) and on the basepaths (team leader in sprint speed, BsR, and Baserunning Run Value), and it’s fair to acknowledge that even a putrid 72 wRC+ is still significantly better than Verdugo’s recent cold stretch.
The part that complicates things a bit is that White has extreme reverse splits. In 2025, he’s at a 140 wRC+ vs. RHP and 39 wRC+ vs. LHP. For his career (which is a much smaller sample than Verdugo’s), it’s an 88 wRC+ vs. RHP and 43 wRC+ vs. LHP.
Given all of this, I’d personally opt to run White out there everyday until he proves he can’t do it. He has better numbers on the season vs. both righties and lefties than Verdugo, and at the very least, he’ll play good defense and run the bases well. But, if I had to guess, the simplicity of a L/R platoon will win out in the end for Snitker.
So, if we assume Verdugo and White will platoon in left field, what might the lineups look like? This past week has seen the catching duo fall into a L/R platoon as well, and as long as Drake Baldwin continues hitting like prime Corey Seager, you can’t blame Snitker for continuing to run out the hot hand (even if it’s tough luck for Murphy, who has had a very good season so far). Baldwin was also used in the 2-hole for the first time last week and collected three hits there. Once Ronald returns and there’s a righty atop the lineup instead of Verdugo, I think it will make all the sense in the world to stick with him there.
What do you think the Braves will do? What would you do if you were the manager? I’ll leave you now with my guess for what Snitker will do once Ronald is back in action.
Vs. RHP:
Acuña Jr. RF
Baldwin C
Ozuna DH
Olson 1B
Riley 3B
Harris II CF
Albies 2B
Verdugo LF
Allen SS
Vs. LHP:
Acuña Jr. RF
Riley 3B
Ozuna DH
Olson 1B
Murphy C
Albies 2B
Harris II CF
White LF
Allen SS