They’ve made it clear that they won’t trade him now, but should they ever?
Sean Murphy is a very good ballplayer. Anyone who says otherwise is just unreasonably salty about losing William Contreras in the trade to acquire him.
At the dish, Murphy has a 126 wRC+, which is just shy of his 2023 mark of 130. Behind the dish, he rates as an above-average pitch framer, blocker, and thrower. Out of 31 catchers with at least 200 plate appearances, he ranks 3rd in fWAR per plate appearance, behind only Cal Raleigh and Will Smith, the two starting catchers in the All-Star Game last week. And despite an injury-marred 2024 season that saw him perform like one of the worst hitters in the league, he still ranks 2nd in fWAR per plate appearance since he first arrived in Atlanta at the start of the 2023 season, behind only Raleigh.
So, in terms of Murphy’s pace, he’s been a top 3 catcher in baseball, both this year and over the past three years. In terms of actual fWAR, he ranks 6th this year and 7th since the start of 2023. That’s because the Atlanta Braves have always had a full-time DH in Marcell Ozuna, so he can’t rack up plate appearances at anything near the level of someone like Cal Raleigh or William Contreras, who both typically DH on days that they are not catching. Between Travis d’Arnaud and Drake Baldwin, Murphy has also always had a well above-average backup in his time here, so the Braves haven’t felt the need to play him three games in a row in the Atlanta heat too often.
The full-time DH part won’t be a factor after this year (and maybe not after next week). Marcell Ozuna is a free agent after 2025, and if he accepts a trade at the deadline instead of exercising his 10-and-5 rights to remain in Atlanta, he’ll likely be on a new team by August 1st. With Ozuna’s recent struggles, manager Brian Snitker has already taken to starting both Murphy and Baldwin on an everyday basis.
General Manager Alex Anthopoulos has repeatedly and adamantly stated that he will not trade anybody with team control beyond 2025 at the deadline, and national reporters have substantiated that claim in recent days. Despite the horrors of 2025, the Braves obviously intend to be competitive in 2026. They only have three seasons left of Ronald Acuña Jr under team control, and while we all would love for Ronald to be a Brave for life, recent history has shown us that there is certainly no guarantee of that happening. They need to be aggressive in their efforts to contend during that window.
In most scenarios, it’s difficult to justify trading a very good player during a window of contention. This may still be one of those cases, but there are a few reasons to at least consider moving Murphy in the right deal.
For starters, the Braves might just have a second top 10 catcher on their hands in Drake Baldwin, who is continually showing that he is capable of being an impact hitter at the big league level. Everything in Baldwin’s profile looks legit – he has solid plate discipline, makes a lot of contact, and consistently hits the ball hard. He’s also held his own as a defender, rating about average in framing, blocking, and throwing. There’s still room for improvement, but barring an unexpected second half collapse, this is a player the Braves will want to play every single day. Needless to say, if they trade Murphy, they’ll still be covered at catcher.
Murph is also owed $15M in each of the next three years. $15M per year is a very reasonable price to pay for a player as good as he is, and that’s a contract that other teams should be more than willing to take on. However, that $15M could also go a long way towards addressing bigger needs than having a second great catcher. And if this season has shown us anything, it’s that the Braves have plenty of big needs.
Obviously, the Braves shouldn’t trade Murphy unless the acquiring team is taking on his full contract and sending back a significant return that can provide long-term value for the Braves. A team with an opening at catcher and a weak solution at DH would be the most motivated to give up a big haul for a guy like Murphy, because that’s the type of team that can get the most value out of him. Consider the Brewers, for instance, who have found the most value in William Contreras by making him the primary catcher and playing him at DH on his rest days.
So, which contending teams around the league find themselves in need of both a primary catcher and a DH? For both this season and the offseason, the top bets are the Padres and Rangers. You could make an argument for the Giants as well – if they play Devers at 1B, their DH spot would be open – but their primary catcher, Patrick Bailey, is the top defensive catcher in the league, so Murph would likely handle more time at DH than C in that situation, and he’s much less valuable in that setup than he is as the primary catcher. The Phillies could also be mentioned as an offseason candidate, since J.T. Realmuto is set to become a free agent at the end of this season, but it would truly stun me to see Murphy moved in-division.
Now, A.J. Preller of the Padres might just be the boldest and most unpredictable GM in the game. He’s shown a willingness to take huge risks; like when he traded Mackenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, and James Wood to the Nationals for Juan Soto, or when he subsequently traded Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to the Yankees less than two years later for a package headlined by Michael King.
San Diego does have a top catching prospect in Ethan Salas, but he’s not close to MLB, and his development has stalled a bit and he’s really struggled in the minors. More importantly, the Padres also have a tremendous SS prospect in Leo De Vries, whom Baseball America recently ranked as the 6th best prospect in the sport. If Preller were to get desperate enough to offer a package for Murphy headlined by De Vries (or even just De Vries straight up), that’s the kind of offer that could potentially make Anthopoulos walk back on his promise to hold all players under control beyond 2025.
Texas has suddenly clawed their way back into the playoff race, as they sit just one game back of the last Wild Card spot in the AL. Their catching tandem of Jonah Heim and Kyle Higashioka ranks 26th in fWAR this year, and their DH situation – which unfortunately features a struggling and injured Braves legend in Joc Pederson – ranks dead last. They are a perfect fit to get the most value out of Murphy by making him the primary catcher and using him at DH on his off days.
Like the Padres, the Rangers have a gigantic SS-shaped carrot they could dangle for the Braves if they got desperate enough to make a big play for Murphy. Baseball America ranked their top prospect Sebastian Walcott 7th overall, just behind De Vries. Texas may be even more willing to give up a top SS prospect than San Diego, considering that they already have the position covered by superstar Corey Seager. There may even be a fun scenario where the Braves take back Joc Pederson in the deal with hopes of a rebound. Joc has a player option for 2026 at $18.5M (which is basically a guaranteed year since will definitely pick it up) and a club option for 2027 at $18.5M with no buyout (which would definitely entice Anthopoulos). Joc had an excellent 136 wRC+ from 2022-2024, and based on the fact that he has vastly underperformed his expected metrics in a relatively small sample this year, I’d be willing to make a bet on him regaining his form.
While it’s fun to speculate on the possibility of adding top-tier prospects like De Vries or Walcott to the organization, the probability of either of those players being dealt is very, very low, and the inclusion of any top 10 overall prospect in a Sean Murphy trade would most likely be seen by the baseball world as a massive overpay. More than likely, the top offers available for Murphy would involve taking on his full contract and sending back a package headlined by a top 100 type of prospect or maybe even some kind of MLB role player that could help the team in 2026.
The way I see it, the Braves have three options. 1) They could not spend any time entertaining Murphy trade talks and simply relish the impact he has on the lineup and the pitching staff. 2) They could refuse to trade Murphy unless they’re blown away with an offer that includes top-end talent like De Vries or Walcott, which most likely won’t happen. Or 3) they could commit to trading him for the best package available and reallocate his $15M salary to other parts of the roster (such as landing a talented and durable SP in free agency like Dylan Cease or an impact bat like Kyle Schwarber).
It’s time now to lace up your GM shoes and make the call. How would you handle Sean Murphy if you were in charge?
(Note: There is a poll below that you won’t see if you’re reading this on Apple News)