Braves’ President of Baseball Ops has some work to do this summer.
In chess, the game is split into three parts; The Opening, The Middle Game, and The Endgame. A regular season of baseball is not dissimilar. It can be dissected into three distinct parts. The Opening (April-May), The Middle Game (June-July), and The Endgame (August-September). With a third of the season now behind us, we have officially entered the middle game, the most tactical part of the season where teams have a strong understanding of who they are and who they aren’t, and clearer picture of what they need to do to get better. Or to put it more succinctly, we’ve entered trade season.
And the Braves have work to do.
When the season started, Atlanta had the odds-on favorite to win the Cy Young in Spencer Strider and the odds-on favorite to win the MVP in Ronald Acuńa Jr and before we even got to Memorial Day, the Braves had lost both for the season. Clearly some reinforcements are needed. So where might GM Alex Anthopoulos go to fill these needs? Let’s set the table for the 2024 trade season.
Starting pitching depth usually comes from within
The most expensive item to trade for at anytime but especially at the trade deadline is starting pitching. And the reason is fairly simple. There’s never a large supply of it available, at least not quality starting pitching, and every contender in baseball could use more of it. Demand always outraces supply by miles and miles on the starting pitching market and baseball didn’t help matters when they expanded playoffs a couple of years ago. Expanded playoffs means more teams who feel like they’re in contention because, well, there are more teams in contention, which increases your buyer pool and decreases your seller pool. So in a world where demand was already outpacing supply, the ratio got even worse.
The end result is the little starting pitching that is available every summer is ridiculously expensive and requires winning a bidding war of sorts with some of your best prospects. Those are wars the Braves typically don’t have any interests in participating in and it’s why, for the most part you’ve seen Anthopoulos completely absent from the high-end starting pitching market over the years.
All of this means, for the Braves, starting pithing reinforcements usually are going to come from within the organization. Guys like Hurston Waldrep or AJ Smith-Shawver are much, much more likely to fill any starting needs the teams has as opposed to whoever the hot names are on the pitching market. Doesn’t mean trading for a starter is impossible, sometimes the perfect deal comes together, or maybe there’s a guy who isn’t as highly valued by the market that you think you can do something with and you go that route. But they’re highly unlikely.
A good rule of thumb this time of year is starting pitching depth usually comes from within.
Alex always adds relievers
There’s a very high likelihood that when we look at the Braves roster on July 31st, the trade deadline is July 30th this season, we will see one or even two new relievers on the club, because there always is. Alex basically never passes up and opportunity to add extra arms and extra depth to his bullpen.
In 2023, it was Pierce Johnson and Brad Hand. In 2022, it was Raisel Iglesias and Jake Odorizzi. In 2021, it was Richard Rodriguez. In 2019, it was the big revamp with Chris Martin, Mark Melancon, and Shane Greene. In 2018, it was Johnny Venters and Brad Brach. There’s a pattern here.
Relievers are almost always in full supply come trade season, just by the sheer fact there’s so many of them. Again, expanded playoffs dents that a little, but even bad teams usually have a few decent relievers, or at least some that you can talk yourself into being good pick-ups. The cost is usually very reasonable, an important point with a weaker farm system, and especially so if you’re picking up a rental who’s only got two more months of teams control. And it’s always important to remember October baseball almost always comes down to how good your bullpen is. Braves’ fans certainly don’t need to be reminded of what the Night Shift guys did in 2021 and they role they played in winning that World Series.
Every full season under Alex Anthopoulos, the Braves have bolstered their bullpen in the middle of the summer, which means you should expect it again 2024.
Corner outfielders are usually cheap and abundant
This is another area Braves’ fans don’t need much help understanding. Position players are always easier to obtain mid-summer vs pitching because every team needs more pitching but not every teams needs, say a SS, or a LF. There’s just less competition for the guys available which means much cheaper prices. And outfielders specifically are the easiest among the position player group to acquire, again, in large part because there are so many of them. Every team is carrying four or five outfielders these days so the supply is always plentiful and the demand limited.
For Anthopoulos, there’s been plenty of examples. Whether it’s Robbie Grossman, or Ehire Adrianza, or Jorge Soler, or Joe Pederson, or Adam Duvall (a few different times) or Eddie Rosario or Ramon Laureano, and certainly more to come. And as we saw in 2021, those guys can have a major impact on your team for very little cost to your farm system.
And of course, this is all said with the backdrop of the Braves losing the best right-fielder in baseball in Acuńa to a torn ACL. They have a clear need, even with Jarred Kelenic and Adam Duval, and a history of making these types of moves in previous seasons. That’s usually a good combination for some sort of deal getting done
If we’re taking bets today, my guess is the Braves enter August with a couple of new relievers and and at least one new outfielder. Maybe a decent sized name there too. After that, maybe a lower regarded starter the team wants to take a flier on and squeeze some extra value on but also wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t. Especially if they don’t think that guy would help at all in a post-season series.
But of course, we never really know what Alex is up to. We’ll all find out together and be here to cover it all.