At least Spencer Schwellenbach is really good
I won’t waste too many words on the Braves as a whole here, because, well, things have gone poorly and also, they don’t seem to have internalized that. But, hey, at least Spencer Schwellenbach is on tap for this series finale in Milwaukee, and that’s a good thing because Schwellenbach is quite a treat to watch at his craft.
On the season, the 25-year-old right-hander has an 80/84/76 line (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-). Sometimes, he has huge, rack-up strikeout starts — he’s had double-digit strikeouts thrice already this season, including back-to-back games to conclude May with an 11/0 K/BB ratio in each. Other times, like his most recent start against the Padres, he’s more of a “get early grounders” guy, with a reasonable set of peripherals despite modest walk and strikeout totals. He’s only had a couple of hiccups this season in 13 tries, and as a result, he’s essentially a top-30 starter in MLB. Pretty cool. Even cooler: he’s clearly got some stuff to work out (lefties, especially when they’ve already seen him in the same game), and if he’s able to do so, then boy, the league is going to have a problem on their hands. (Assuming some other part of his profile doesn’t regress.)
Opposite Schwellenbach will be another young right-hander that’s had a similar level of success. Chad Patrick is a 26-year-old rookie who currently has 1.8 fWAR to Schwellenbach’s 1.5, but if you look at his line, it’s 71/81/106, so basically, he’s not pitching better than Schwellenbach, but the HR/FB and other stuff is definitely in his favor. Another difference: Patrick has really struggled the third time through, and correspondingly, his exposure to that split has been relatively limited, compared to Schwellenbach, who has neither a particularly dramatic split nor any kind of safeguard from facing batters a third time.
All that said, Patrick has been truly excellent in his last four outings (42/59/86), so the Braves aren’t exactly catching him at a good time given that they’re working through their own series of existential crises. Playoff odds for Atlanta are now down below 1-in-4, and the only way they’re going to get back in it is with a (very) long winning streak or extended period of superb play. They failed to string that together last night. Maybe they’ll start today, but they probably won’t.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Wednesday, June 11, 2:10 p.m. EDT
Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
TV: FanDuel Sports Network South / Southeast
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan