The Mets are not the Rockies, but that doesn’t mean the Braves can’t sweep them
I don’t know if I’ve had game coverage for every single Spencer Strider game this season, but it sure feels like that’s the case. (I don’t think I covered his most recent start, for instance.) And guess what? Today is no different, because it’s Spencer Strider day once again as the Braves seek a sweep over the Mets.
In another season, covering every Spencer Strider would’ve been awesome. This season? More awesome in theory than in practice. Working with diminished velocity and an understandable degree of rust after a long elbow surgery-related layoff, and then a hamstring injury requiring another month of rehab to boot, Strider’s first five starts of the year were decidedly un-Strider like: a 132 ERA-, 141 FIP-, and a 123 xFIP-. Those five starts seemed to be broken down into two broad categories: either Strider attempted to blow guys away in the zone as he once could, and got hit hard — or he tried to outguess his opponents to varying degrees of success, and a lot of walks. The Braves also really didn’t help matters by letting him persevere as the Strider of old — even right now, his splits include a sub-3.00 FIP and xFIP the first time through, a mid-3.00s FIP and xFIP the second time through, and… a 10.99 FIP and 7.91 xFIP the third time through. Same old story, yeah, but it’s not entirely about Strider’s lack of effectiveness since returning.
All that kind of melted away in his last outing, though, as Strider dominated the Rockies with 13 strikeouts in six innings of work, walking just one guy. He posted a negative FIP and xFIP in the game. On the one hand, woohoo, could Strider be back? On the other hand, it was the Rockies. In support of the “Strider is back” camp, you have his average fastball velocity of 96.2 mph in that start, compared to a string of 95ish numbers prior. (96.2 mph would’ve still been his second-lowest average of the 2023 season, though.) On the other hand… the Rockies.
So, tonight’s game is going to be an interesting test for all sorts of things, including the “Strider is back” supposition. One thing that maybe makes it more interesting, or perhaps more fraught, is that Strider has dominated everyone fairly often, but his record against the Mets is a lot more mixed. In 2022, that was less the case, as he dominated them twice but also had a weird BABIP-plagued outing in which he lasted just 2 2⁄3 despite pitching well. In 2023, though, things were a lot rougher — he had a meh outing against then in May (the Braves won a 9-8 slugfest), a weird cursed two-homer outing against them in June where he was charged with eight runs thanks to a 40 percent HR/FB and a .600 BABIP-against despite an 8/2 K/BB ratio (the Braves won 13-10), and then the reverse, where he had an uninspiring 6/4 K/BB ratio but somehow lasted through seven scoreless anyway. So, what’s gonna happen tonight? Who knows.
Opposing Strider will be Clay Holmes, who is more than holding his own in his inaugural season as a starter: a 74 ERA-, 99 FIP-, 92 xFIP-, and an xERA in line with FIP. Despite being a reliever conversion, Holmes has given the Mets a fair bit of length, averaging close to 17 outs per start, and at least so far, his third-time-through splits are very respectable and not really problematic. (If anything, he seems to struggle the most early in games, which is a weird thing for a reliever-to-starter conversion to exhibit, but we’re still in the realm of smaller samples here.) Holmes has also been broadly consistent — of his 14 outings, only three have had an xFIP- above 115, and only five have had an xFIP- below 85. He had a relatively rough outing against the Rays last time out (a 3/2 K/BB ratio and a homer allowed in five innings), but dominated the Rockies in the start prior. Given that Holmes has kind of been what he is, this game is probably all about the extent to which Strider is or isn’t himself in this one, which makes it kind of fun to watch beyond the meta-narrative of whether the Braves’ season is a misstep away from plunging off a precipice.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Thursday, June 19, 7:15 p.m. EDT
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
TV: FanDuel Sports South / Southeast, MLB Network (out-of-market only)
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan