It’s been a while since the Braves and Mets have gotten together but they’re going to get well acquainted with each other over the next two crucial weeks.
The next 13 games that the Atlanta Braves are going to play will all be within the division and seven of them will be against the New York Mets. Three of them will take place at Truist Park in Cobb County, where the Braves will be hoping to trip up the Mets. New York has gotten off to a very strong start, as the Mets are currently sitting on the best record in the NL right now at 45-27. The Braves are having to crane their necks in order to look up at the Mets at the moment, as New York has pushed out to a 13-game lead over the Braves at this point in the division. Things are pretty rough, y’all!
As you can imagine based on their record alone, the Mets are pretty strong in all facets of the game. They’re hitting .247/.332/.421 with a .330 wOBA and 115 wRC+, which is tied for the second-best number int he National League in that regard. Juan Soto has adapted pretty well to the other side of New York, as he’s currently sitting on a wRC+ of 140 and he’s got some company in the high wRC+ neighborhood as well. Pete Alonso is on 169 wRC+ this season, Jeff McNeil is on 146, Francisco Lindor is on 134. There are very few holes in this Mets lineup and it’ll be a tough test for Atlanta’s pitching staff to keep the Mets quiet in this one.
We’ll talk more about this later but New York’s pitching staff has also been nailing it as well. No matter if it’s the rotation or the bullpen, New York’s pitchers have been reliable on the mound so far this season. This is just a well-rounded ballclub, which means that the Braves will have to be on their A-game if they’re going to pull off a series win in this one.
Tuesday, June 17, 7:15 p.m. ET (FanDuel Sports South/Southeast)
RHP Spencer Schwellenbach (14 GS, 69.2 IP, 23.5 K5, 3.9 BB%, 3.11 ERA, 76 ERA- 3.18 FIP, 82 FIP-, 1.7 fWAR)
Nowhere to go but down after what Spencer Schwellenbach did in his most recent outing. That was when he delivered a complete game for the Braves as he struck out nine batters while only giving up two runs on five hits. It always felt like it was only a matter of time before Schwellenbach would go the distance in a game (He’d made it through eight innings earlier this season and had routinely made it seven innings as well) and it was truly satisfying to see him pull it off.
Schwellenbach made three starts against the Mets last season and in each of them, Schwellenbach had the Mets in the Camel Clutch for seven innings. He pitched three separate games where he went seven innings and he gave up one run in two of those starts and pitched seven shutout innings in his first start against them. It would be huge if Schwellenbach picked up where he left off — both against the Mets and with the way his season has gone so far.
LHP David Peterson (13 GS, 79.2 IP, 21.5 K%, 7.6 BB%, 2.49 ERA, 64 ERA-, 3.03 FIP, 77 FIP-, 1.8 fWAR)
Who knows what’s gotten into David Peterson because he’s currently on track to easily have a career year. His previous career high for f(FanGraphs)WAR in a single season was the 1.9 that he recorded last season, so he’s certainly on track to take a real leap. Just like Schwellenbach, Peterson is entering this game after he threw a complete game. He one-upped Schwellenbach though, as Peterson shut out the Nationals over the course of the nine innings while he was out there. He has a pretty underwhelming track record against the Braves over the course of his career, so hopefully that’ll continue and the Braves will put his breakout season on the skids.
Wednesday, June 18, 7:15 p.m. ET (FanDuel Sports South/Southeast)
LHP Chris Sale (14 GS, 80.2 IP, 31.7 K%, 7.4 BB%, 2.79 ERA, 68 ERA-, 2.74 FIP, 71 FIP-, 2.2 fWAR)
Ever since May 16, Chris Sale has made five starts and has only a 1.09 ERA and a 2.52 FIP over the 33.0 innings that he’s pitched during that span. He’s struck out 43 batters while only walking 12 and giving up 19 hits. I’d say you’re on a pretty good run if you’ve pitched that many innings and you have more strikeouts than baserunners dealt with. That’s the run that Chris Sale is on at the moment and hopefully we’ll see him add the Mets to his list of dominated foes at the moment.
RHP Paul Blackburn (1 GS, 9.1 IP, 14.0 K% 4.7 BB%, 6.75 ERA, 174 ERA-, 2.43 FIP, 62 FIP-, 0.2 fWAR)
Normally this would be Kodai Senga’s spot in the rotation but instead, Paul Blackburn is getting the call to start in his place. Blackburn has made three outings so far this season and the two most recent outings haven’t exactly been great. He gave up three runs over four innings against the Rockies back on June 8 and then he ended up getting credited for four runs while only getting one out in his most recent outing against the Rays. With that being said, in his only start this season on June 2 against the Dodgers, Blackburn pitched five shutout innings. This’ll actually be Blackburn’s first time seeing the Braves since he was a member of the A’s back in 2023. Blackburn went four innings and only gave up one run and I’d imagine that the Mets would be more than happy with a repeat of that performance.
Thursday, June 19, 7:15 p.m. ET (FanDuel Sports South/Southeast, Gray TV)
RHP Spencer Strider (6 GS, 31 IP, 28.7 K%, 9.3 BB%, 4.35 ERA, 107 ERA-, 4.33 FIP, 111 FIP-, 0.3 fWAR)
Needless to say, the version of Spencer Strider that we saw over this past weekend is the one that should hopefully stick around. Strider struck out 13 batters over just six innings of work and most importantly, he shut out the Rockies while he was out there. While granted, it was the Rockies and Strider should have a firmer test to deal with in the form of the Mets, this was still very encouraging to see Strider racking up strikeouts like it was the good ol’ days before his injury. Hopefully he’ll pick up where he left off during the weekend while also cleaning up his record against the Mets a bit as well.
RHP Clay Holmes (14 GS, 78.1 IP, 21.1 K%, 7.8 BB%, 2.87 ERA, 74 ERA-, 3.94 FIP, 100 FIP-, 0.9 fWAR)
Clay Holmes has been perfectly fine for the Mets so far this season and his past few starts have seen be pretty effective for New York. Ever since his start on May 20 against the Red Sox, he’s made five starts and thrown 29.2 innings with an ERA of 2.43, a bloated FIP of 5.36 and 20 strikeouts to eight runs allowed. As the FIP suggests, he has had to deal with plenty of baserunners — 23 hits given up and eight walks allowed during that five-start span is a lot to deal with. Still, he’s done a good job of keeping the opposition off of the scoreboard and the Mets will be hoping that he’ll keep that up against the Braves this week.