Charlie Morton looks to keep his mini-roll going against the Nationals
It’s been a wild ride for Nationals starter Jake Irvin in the majors so far. Called up in May 2023, he had a rookie season well-befitting a fifth starter type: a 106 ERA-, 120 FIP-, and 117 xFIP- in 121 innings, yielding 0.7 fWAR’s worth of value in total. One offseason later, though, he busted out in 2024, with a brilliant 68/83/90 line through his first 18 starts. He had 2.3 fWAR through July 4, a top-20 mark. It was quite a turnaround for a guy who wasn’t much of a prospect and projected as an innings-eater type. But then, Irvin began to experience another whiplash-inducing change: things fell apart for him. In his last eight starts, he has a downright ugly 152/157/112 line, giving up longballs in seven of the eight outings, and multiple longballs in five of them.
The Braves suffered at his hands twice in his earlier, successful stretch. On May 28, he dominated them for the best start of his career, to date: six scoreless innings and a 10/2 K/BB ratio. (The Braves won the game, 2-0, thanks to a Marcell Ozuna homer in the first non-Irvin-involved PA of the game they took.) A couple of weeks later, the Braves dropped a 2-1 decision to Irvin, who had a less impressive, but still annoyingly stifling, 4/2 K/BB ratio over another six scoreless frames.
The Braves have had a weird run in August so far — they have a 112 wRC+, good for tenth in MLB, which suggests that some of their offensive doldrums may be clearing. But, on the flip side, their team xwOBA has actually slid down to .321 for August, where it was .325 in the four months prior. They’re finally getting a bit lucky results-wise, which they certainly deserve as karmic compensation, but it’s hard to say that this injury-depleted lineup has definitively turned a corner.
In any case, that sets up an interesting matchup between their bats and Irvin. If he continues to struggle, this game could be much more of a cinch than last night’s offensive strugglefest. But, if he stymies the Braves again, well… things could get annoying.
Irvin’s counterpart for tonight will be Charlie Morton, whose personal manner of inducing whiplash has been much more fervent than Irvin’s: Morton has more or less alternated strong and awful starts for over two months now. That said, he’s on a bit of a mini-roll, with a combined 15/3 K/BB ratio and just a single homer allowed over his last two starts. That’s a big deal because in the six starts before that, he had just a 25/7 K/BB ratio and had given up 11 homers, though again, even that six-start stretch had two sparkling outings mixed in. For the season, Morton has a 102/115/98 line; he’s been absolutely tattered by a HR/FB rate just under 17 percent.
Morton also faced the Nationals two times in that two-week span back in late May and early June. Those starts went pretty terribly for the Braves. In the first one, where the Braves really could’ve used a boost after Ronald Acuña Jr. went down with his season-ending injury, Morton suffered a .611 BABIP-against and ended up being charged with eight runs in 5 2⁄3 innings despite a 7/2 K/BB ratio and a single homer allowed. The Braves went down 4-0 before they even came to bat, and doubled that deficit before Morton eventually departed. Then, in Washington, Morton had a 3/0 K/BB ratio and didn’t allow a homer in five innings, but still departed down 5-1.
Chris Sale struggled against the Nationals, as they swung early and often to avoid getting carved up. It’ll be interesting to see whether the same happens to Morton again, or whether he can take advantage of a fairly overt offensive approach — though the Braves’ poor defense behind him makes it somewhat hard to guarantee good fortune when the other team is hellbent on making contact.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Saturday, August 24, 7:20 P.M. ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
TV: Bally Sports Southeast
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan
XM Radio: Ch. 186