For much of the season Shohei Ohtani has been the presumptive National League MVP favorite. Maybe that wasn’t the case on Opening Day, but an injury to teammate Mookie Betts early in the summer and an injury to D-backs star infielder Ketel Marte cleared his path. The Ohtani hype is understandable. He’s been the National League’s best hitter this year by many measures, pacing the Senior Circuit in slugging percentage (.613) and wRC+ (167). Ohtani is fifth in the NL in batting average, fourth in OBP, first in homers and runs scored and second in runs batted in. He’s also swiped 46 bags and is a veritable lock to have a 45-45 season, with a chance at becoming MLB’s first ever 50-homer, 50-steal player in a season.
Lately, there’s been a push by Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor to tighten the race, however. Dating back to July 1, Lindor boasts a sensational .310/.384/.587 slash. He’s in the midst of a torrid 15-game hitting streak, which he started just one game after seeing a 12-game hitting streak end. Since the beginning of July, Lindor has more than twice as many multi-hit games (22) than he does hitless games (10). Defensive metrics are a bit split on him this year, with Defensive Runs Saved curiously pegging him as average while Statcast grades him as one of the best defensive players in the entire game. Regardless, Lindor and his .274/.343/.501 batting line (plus 30 homers and 26 steals) lead the NL in both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference WAR.
It’s not quite fair to the rest of the field to call this a pure two-horse race, though Lindor and Ohtani are certainly the favorites at the moment. Cincinnati standout Elly De La Cruz could thrust himself further into the conversation with a big finish, but many voters will be turned off by the fact that however excellent his season has been — and it’s been excellent — it’s happened as a member of a non-contending Reds club.
There’s still one other viable MVP candidate who’s not getting the love, and who probably won’t get the love — but absolutely should.
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